Views from Down Underer

Ep. 91: Iran attacked by US and Israel

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 21:56:15 +1300

US and Israel attacked Iran that killed Iran's top leadership. Iran has responded by expanding the conflict to neighboring states. The Strait of Hormuz is now closed and air travel is impacted. Why is this happening at this time? What are the implications?

Ep. 90: Munich Security Conference, China as a green superpower, Ex-South Korean President given life sentence

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 22:17:01 +1300

Recent Munich Security Conference followed up on the 'rupture' speech by Canadian PM Carney, US State Secretary delivered a similar message to last year's US VP Vance's speech but seem to be sugar-coated. Is Europe ready to take defense in its own hands? China's has been investing heavily on renewable energy while the US is now lagging behind. What does this mean for China's green future? Finally, ex-South Korean president was sentenced to life sentence for insurrection and treason for his part in the 3 December 2024 declaration of martial law. What does it mean for South Korean domestic politics?

Ep. 89: NZ-India FTA, Japan's LDP wins, AI and jobs

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 22:14:24 +1300

Will the NZ-India FTA see the light of day? PM Takaichi leads Japan's LDP to a big electoral victory. Singapore's Deputy PM raised concern about AI and its impact on jobs and the future economy.

Ep. 88: Canadian PM Carney's 2026 World Economic Forum speech

Sun, 25 Jan 2026 09:10:55 +1300

Canadian PM Mark Carney delivered a hard hitting speech declaring the 'rules-based international order' as ruptured and calling for middle powers of the world to unite. While many observers and non-western states have known (and complained) for a long time, this the first time that a Western leader finally yelled out: "The emperor has no clothes."

Ep.87: Thailand and Cambodia border conflict (again), Thai calls for new general election

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 13:03:03 +1300

Thai-Cambodia border conflict flares again months after a peace accord signed in the presence of US President Trump. In the midst of this conflict, Thai PM dissolves parliament and calls for new general election.

Ep. 86: China-Japan spat, NZ MPs sent warning letter by PRC envoy, MAGA's MTG resigning from US Congress

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 02:49:27 +1300

Tensions brewing between China and Japan due to PRC's response to Japanese PM's comments about 'survival-threatening situation' pertaining to conflict in the Taiwan Strait. What's happening here? Over-reaction? Playing to domestic constituencies? Nationalism at play? Chinese envoy to NZ wrote a warning letter to NZ MPs that attended Taiwan's national day reception in Wellington. Wolf-warrior at play again? Principal-agent issues? Misunderstanding of how Westminster system works? Fallout of the US government shutdown and Epstein files is the resignation announcement of big MAGA supporter Marjorie Taylor-Greene.

Ep. 85: Learning a foreign language: opening minds, appreciating cultures, building self-confidence, creating opportunities

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 15:42:05 +1300

We share our experience of learning foreign languages and the importance of learning a different language. One of our students currently studying Mandarin Chinese in Taiwan shares her experience learning the language and living in Taipei.

Ep. 84: ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur and APEC meeting in Seoul

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 02:29:51 +1300

ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur saw the formal admission of Timor Leste as the newest ASEAN member, the transfer of chair-ship to the Philippines and US President Trump attended the summit. Seoul hosted the APEC meeting but the Trump-XI meeting stole the show as the leaders of the two largest economies met face to face.

Ep. 83: Trading democracy off for desirable outcomes?

Mon, 13 Oct 2025 21:43:19 +1300

We discuss a forthcoming research article to be published at the Comparative Political Studies by Jonathan Chu and colleagues on whether people are willing to trade-off democracy for desirable outcomes. The paper using experiments show that while free and fair elections are a desired, people in the six countries they studied (including US, Japan, Italy) are willing to trade it off to avoid living in dangerous societies.

Readings: Jonathan A. Chu, Scott Williamson, Eddy S.F. Yeung (forthcoming). "Are People Willing to to Trade Away Democracy for Desirable Outcomes? Experimental Evidence from Six Countries." Comparative Political Studies

Ep 82: Australia-PNG security pact and Australia-Vanuatu security and development pact

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 21:05:12 +1300

Recent news about Australia's pacts with Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu has highlighted the important of geopolitical competition in the South Pacific. However, despite the announcement of these pacts, they were not officially signed in time from the Pacific Island Forum. What are these pacts? Are there outstanding issues that preventing the pacts from being signed? We are joined by Henrietta McNeill-Stowers, Michael Kabuni, and Anna Naupa of the Australian National University to discuss these news.

Ep.81: Russian drones over Poland, Hyundai plant raided by immigration agents

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 08:12:22 +1200

Poland invoked NATO article 4 due to Russian drones violating Polish airspace. Immigration agents in the US raided a South Korean EV plant in the state of Georgia and deported over 300 South Korean workers.

Ep. 80: Impressions from the conference we hosted, US rebranding Pentagon to Department of War

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 09:03:31 +1200

We hosted a conference on "Asia-Pacific states: navigating and managing global disorder" a week ago. We share insights we learned from the conference. US Trump administration is planning to rebrand Pentagon to Department of War. The cost of this renaming alone can be in billions of dollars.

Ep. 79: Putin-Trump Alaska summit and Chinese ship collision in the South China Sea

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 19:52:21 +1200

What happened or not in the Alaska summit between Trump and Putin? Two Chinese ships collided while doing a pincer move chasing a Philippine coast guard vessel. Will there be escalation in the future?

Ep 78: Geoeconomics and USTR Greer's New York Times guest essay

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 21:47:08 +1200

We discuss a paper on the political economy of geoeconomic power and discuss what theory means when applied to real world empirics. In an New York Times guest essay authored by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer titled "Why We Remade the Global Order," Greer argues that the agreement between the EU and the US made at Turnberry resort is a new world order much like Bretton Woods set the postwar world order. Is the comparison valid? We discuss the essay and assess its claims.

Ep. 77: Thailand-Cambodia border skirmishes, Japan's LDP loses upper house majority, Taiwan's recall election

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 21:20:59 +1200

The Thai-Cambodia border skirmish has now escalated with both sides firing artillery across their borders. Why the escalation now? Japan's LDP loses its upper house majority and what does it mean for PM Ishiba's tenure as LDP party leader. Taiwan has a recall election in a bid to unseat KMT legislators and allow the DPP to regain legislative majority that the ruling party lost in the January 2024 general election. So what is the result and what are the implications of this recall election on party politics in Taiwan?

Ep. 76: Tariff letters, Australian FM speech in Kuala Lumpur, and other interesting news

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 06:47:16 +1200

White House has sent out tariff letters to numerous countries but the the import taxes do not take effect till August 1st. FM Penny Wong gave a speech in the ASEAN meeting about managing differences between allies. Other interesting news such as the confirmation grilling of the US ambassador-designate to Singapore, the advanced RAF fighter jet stuck in India, and how Myanmar military junta received the US tariff letters.

Ep. 75: China-EU meeting, China pressuring to not show a South China Sea documentary, Thailand cabinet reshuffle and continuing political drama

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 03:52:59 +1200

China's FM had a meeting with EU counterpart to discuss outstanding issues on bilateral relations. A Philippine documentary "Food Delivery" on the South China Sea has received attention such that there are active lobbying by Chinese diplomats to not show the documentary. There is still continuing fallout from the leaked call of the Thai PM with former Cambodian PM. Thai PM is suspended pending investigation while calls for her resignation gets louder.

Ep. 74: US bombs Iran and Thailand PM pressured to resign over leaked phone call

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 16:08:55 +1200

US bombed Iran's nuclear facility about a week after Israel attacked Iran. Why did the US attack now? Will their be a fallout from this decision? Is there a risk of a widening regional conflict? Thailand's border conflict with Cambodia has a new twist. A private phone conversation between the Thai PM and Cambodia's ex-strongman leader Hun Sen was leaked and led to calls for resignation of the PM.

Ep. 73: Israel-Iran conflict, NZ PM's upcoming Beijing visit, Pentagon reviews AUKUS, US Army day parade

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 09:25:00 +1200

Israel attacked Iran to decapitate its nuclear program and Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks. Will this turn into a regional war? NZ PM will visit Beijing, with lots going on domestically and internationally what are some of their likely talking points? Pentagon has decided to review the AUKUS arrangements catching Australia by surprise and also ahead of an upcoming visit by the Australian PM to the US. US Army celebrated its 250th anniversary with a military parade which are rare in the US.

Ep. 72: South Korean election, California vs US federal government spat, Thailand-Cambodia border dispute

Mon, 09 Jun 2025 21:35:35 +1200

South Korean liberal politician Lee Jae-myung won the presidency. With Korean society so polarised is this a 'poisoned chalice.' Trump administration in a spat with California threatened to cut federal funding, in turn California governor Gavin Newsom threatened to not turn over California's federal taxes. What is this spat all about? Thailand and Cambodia are having a dispute over part of its shared border. The militaries of both countries have been mobilised. What does this mean for the concept of ASEAN as a security community?

Ep. 71: Macron and Hegseth speeches at the 2025 Shangrila Dialogue

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 22:56:41 +1200

Shangrila Dialogue was held in Singapore last week. French president Macron spoke of the importance of Europe to engage Asia. US defense secretary Hegseth warns about hedging and implores regional states to spend at least 5% on their defense. Interestingly, China did not send their defense minister instead an academic delegation from their defense university.

Ep. 70: US Navy ship visit NZ, Philippine midterm elections, US reducing forces in Korea

Sun, 25 May 2025 23:15:41 +1200

US naval ship visits New Zealand after PLA Navy ships showed up in the Tasman Sea several months ago. With NZ planning to increase defense spending does this mean a closer defense relationship between the two countries since the breakup of ANZUS in the late 1980s? Philippine midterm elections shows the strength of political dynasties in the Philippines and the seeming weakness of Philippine political institutions. Is this a sign of poor institutional design? Wall Street Journal reports that US is planning to reduce the number of soldiers based in South Korea and Singapore warns foreign embassies not to interfere in domestic affairs.

Ep. 69: IR scholar Joe Nye, Pope Leo XIV, Asia's dollar demand, US orders intelligence gathering of Greenland

Mon, 12 May 2025 09:42:31 +1200

Prominent international relations scholar, Joseph Nye, passes away. We chat about his contribution to the study of international relations. Catholic Church has a new pope and the first born in the US. Asia's demand for US dollar is waning, what does it mean and what are likely implications? US is upping intelligence gathering on Greenland and Danish government protests this action.

Ep. 68: General Elections in Canada, Australia, and Singapore

Mon, 05 May 2025 09:07:07 +1200

The general elections of Canada, Australia, and Singapore returned incumbents and shows voters are voting for stability and steady hands at this time of global uncertainty.

Ep. 67: NZ FM's East-West Center speech, Trump and Zelensky meets in Vatican, Foreign interference warnings in Singapore's general election campaign period

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 20:13:27 +1200

NZ FM gave a speech at the East-West Center in Honolulu titled "Enduring Pacific Partnerships" that talks about the importance of NZ relations with US especially in the context of Pacific partnerships. Trump and Zelensky met just before the funeral mass of Pope Francis where Trump noted that Russia may not be serious about ending the war with Ukraine. Lastly, the caution and warning about foreign influence in the upcoming Singapore general elections.

Ep. 66: About the 2025 State of Southeast Asia Survey by ISEAS Singapore

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 09:34:29 +1200

The new State of Southeast Asia Survey is out and provides a snapshot of public opinions from SEA about all things that concern the region. Here is a link to the survey: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2025-survey-report/

Ep. 65: Liberation day to liquidation day: Tariffs, market crash, and global economy

Sun, 13 Apr 2025 21:56:15 +1200

Trump's liberation day announcement and the 'reciprocal' tariffs led to stock market crash and high market volatility. With global stock markets shedding trillions of dollars from its value and the eventual hit on US Treasury bonds as investors dump the bonds and yields on the bonds rise, Trump put a temporary 90-day halt on the tariffs. President Trump and the US blinked as the market taught it a harsh lesson in international economics. So what happened? In this discussion, we chat about the market dynamics and political economy of 'liberation to liquidation' week.

Ep. 64: South Korean president removed from office, White House launched massive tariffs

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 08:48:27 +1200

South Korean constitutional court removes president Yoon for declaring an illegal martial law in early December 2024. New presidential election is set for June 3rd. Trump administration launched the so called 'liberation day' by slapping 'reciprocal' tariffs on its own major trading partners. Markets are reacting with the significant declines of major stock markets.

Ep. 63: Ex-Philippine president Duterte ICC arrest and RNZAF P-8 Poseidon

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 08:10:36 +1300

Former Philippine president Duterte was arrested on an ICC warrant. What is this about and what are the implications to Philippine politics? The P-8 Poseidon is termed as a 'once in a generation' acquisition for the RNZAF but recent news report that the servicing of the planes cannot be done in New Zealand due to absence of technical capabilities. Why? Lastly, interesting evolution of kit/shirt sponsors of English Premier League teams in the 30 years of the creation of the league.

Ep. 62: Update on Panama Canal deal, NZ PM Luxon's India visit, update on Ukraine-Russia

Thu, 27 Mar 2025 09:58:50 +1300

Panama canal deal by Hutchison Holdings is heavily criticised by China. What is it all about? NZ PM Luxon led a huge delegation to visit India and announced that both countries will negotiate a free trade deal. US is brokering a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, what are new updates.

Ep. 61: German defense spending, India comments on postwar order, China complains about port deals

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 10:03:09 +1300

Germany plans to spend big in defense spending as US commitment to Europe weakens, India says that benefits of postwar order is exaggerated signalling the end of the international rules-based order as we know it. China is reported to be very critical of the recent port deals by Hutchison. Voice of America is cutting staff and funding while Canada is reassessing whether to still buy the F35s or not.

Ep. 60: Canada as canary in the coal mine? Tariffs, trade war, and Ukraine

Mon, 10 Mar 2025 21:47:30 +1300

US announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Canada considers this an aggressive action by the US that seeks to weaken Canada. The fallout of the Oval Office shakedown continues as US freezes support to Ukraine. What is happening here? What is the implications to international politics?

Ep. 59: CDU tops German elections but AfD made gains; Rumble in the Oval Office

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 07:06:04 +1300

The 2025 German Federal election results are out: governing SPD is third, CDU/CSU is tops, the far right AfD came in a strong second. What is the new picture of vote distribution across Germany? What does it mean for coalition and future governance? What does it mean for its foreign policy? Ukraine's president Zelensky went to the Oval Office expecting to discuss and then sign the US-Ukraine mineral deal, instead he got a 'shakedown' by US President Trump and VP Vance all caught on live TV. He was asked to leave the White House not even able to enjoy a meal. What happened? What are the implications and fall out of this very undiplomatic live TV show straight from the White House?

Episode 58: US-Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia, PLA Navy nearby, Cook Islands update

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 11:10:11 +1300

US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ground rules for negotiations to end the Ukraine war although no Ukrainians and Europeans attended. What does it mean? What are the implications? PLA Navy task force is spotted in international waters near Australia and NZ and disrupted commercial air traffic by having live fire exercises. Why? What is the point of Chinese navy presence? And a quick update on the continuing saga of the Cook Island and China agreement.

Episode 57: Era of Stick Power in International Relations? Vance in Munich, NZ-Cook Island spat

Mon, 17 Feb 2025 22:01:22 +1300

Is this now an era of stick power in international relations? An era of my way or the highway? US VP Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference and lectured (or read the riot act) his European audience. NZ and Cook Islands are having an uncomfortable moment in their relationship when Cook Islands signed an agreement with China without prior alert to NZ.

Episode 56: Trump foreign policy, Gaza proposal, Panama Canal, and Malaysia's ASEAN chairmanship thus far

Sun, 09 Feb 2025 01:09:18 +1300

Busy two weeks of Trump's administration and foreign policy is no exception -- Gaza proposal, hard talk about Panama Canal, turning El Salvador as a penal colony. Malaysia's chairing of ASEAN has been quiet and unambitious thus far, why?

Episode 55: Trump's first week back as US president

Tue, 28 Jan 2025 16:11:06 +1300

US president Donald Trump has been busy since his inauguration one week ago. We chat about his inauguration speech and other things in President Trump's eventful week one on the first week of his 2nd term as US president.

Episode 54: Biden's farewell address, Gaza ceasefire, India 'acknowledging' an assassination plot, Polish general fired over landmines in IKEA, and US Defsec nominee has poor knowledge of SEA

Wed, 22 Jan 2025 00:34:28 +1300

Biden bows out of politics with his farewell address. Trump claims he has a hand in the Gaza ceasefire. India seems to be acknowledging an assassination plot on a US citizen. Landmines was stored wrongly in IKEA and a Polish general responsible for logistics was fired. After years of National Geographic's Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego program, the defense secretary nominee cannot identify a member of ASEAN.

Episode 53: Greenland contingency and Indonesia joins BRICS

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:50:22 +1300

Trump threatens to take Greenland from Denmark and does not rule out the use of force. Indonesia has joined BRICS as a full member.

Episode 52: Elon Musk on UK politics, Trudeau resignation, Houthis and China

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 17:17:09 +1300

Elon Musk is on the news about supporting the UK Reform Party and him dabbling into UK politics. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau calling it quits. Lastly, news about China paying off Houthis for safe passage in the Red Sea.

Episode 51: Democratic Ceilings: Why democracies can stagnate.

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 01:41:58 +1300

Studies about democracies in the last eight years or so have focused on democratic recession or backsliding. Yet, there are democracies that do not regress but instead stagnate. We discuss an academic article that suggest that some democracies hit their ceilings and do not progress further because of the legacy of nationalist polarization that persist.

Reference:

Aram Hur and Andrew Yeo. 2024. Democratic Ceilings: The Long Shadow of Nationalist Polarization in East Asia. Comparative Political Studies 57(4): 584-612.

Episode 50: News review and news surprises of 2024 and what to watch out for in 2025

Mon, 23 Dec 2024 03:00:01 +1300

We share about how the news we were watching out for in early 2024 transpired, what news caught us by surprise, and what are some of the news that we are watching out for in 2025.

Episode 49: Trouble spots: Syria and Europe

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 23:20:30 +1300

Syria's Assad regime suddenly collapse after 50 years of brutal rule. What's next? European politics is volatile these days. French president Macron has appointed a fifth prime minister to head a fragmented National Assembly. German chancellor Scholz's government suffered no-confidence vote. Many other problem spots within Europe. So what's happening?

Episode 48: Political Crisis in South Korea

Sat, 14 Dec 2024 18:52:11 +1300

South Korean President Yoon declared martial law and then had to rescind it once the National Assembly voted it down. Impeachment motion failed to pass the National Assembly leading to continued demonstrations in the country calling the president to resign. At the moment, a political stalemate seems likely to linger as the president refuses to step down.

Episode 47: Political punitivism and political revenge in South Korea

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 11:11:41 +1300

In this episode, our special guest Prof Youngho Cho of Sogang University in Seoul, Republic of Korea, discusses his research on why South Korea's presidential system is plague by a tit-for-tat political witch hunt.

Episode 46: Notes from our Taiwan study tour

Sun, 01 Dec 2024 13:41:07 +1300

This episode is a chat from what we have learned in our study tour of Taiwan.

Episode 45: US elections 2024: crystal ball-gazing on foreign policy

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 11:16:02 +1300

We chat about the plausible foreign policy implications of the results of the 2024 US elections.

Episode 44: US Elections 2024 -- Republicans win

Fri, 08 Nov 2024 11:55:51 +1300

The US election has finally occurred and the Republicans seem like the big winner -- winning the presidency, the Senate, and in line to win the House of Representatives.

Episode 43: Clash of Two Gilded Ages and the US presidential election polls

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 15:42:03 +1300

We discuss Prof Yuen Yuen Ang's article on the clash of the US and China as that of two gilded ages rather than clash of civilizations. We then talk about the polls just a few days before the US presidential election and how the election is still too close to call.

Episode 42: North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, Impending 'betrayal' of Ukraine? The Age of De-population, Japan's LDP loses its majority

Sun, 03 Nov 2024 21:30:07 +1300

In this episode we discuss reports that North Korean soldiers are fighting in Ukraine. We then talk about an essay published by the Royal United Services Institute about the possible of betrayal of Ukraine and why this betrayal is likely to happen. We discuss the Foreign Affairs article about the problem of depopulation that the world is facing today and what this means. Lastly, the snap election in Japan backfired for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as it lost its parliamentary majority.

Episode 41: Elon Musk giving $1M to Pennsylvania voters, Indonesian presidential inauguration, Trump works in a MacDonalds

Wed, 30 Oct 2024 23:04:37 +1300

Is Musk offering money to voters considered vote buying? Months after the presidential election, the new Indonesian president is finally sworn in. Donald Trump apparently worked in a MacDonald's for a day, but did he really?

Episode 40: Great power rivalry and implications for Southeast Asia and America losing Southeast Asia to China?

Sun, 20 Oct 2024 22:14:15 +1300

We chat about Nick's research presentation at the Southeast Asia Research Initiative seminar on the implications of great power rivalry on Southeast Asia and then examine whether there is validity in the concern that the United States is losing its position of influence in Southeast Asia to China as other global issues drags America's attention to the region.

Episode 39: Hezbollah-Israel conflict, US strategy in the Mideast, Sikh referendum in NZ, RNZN ship sinks in Samoa

Sun, 13 Oct 2024 21:52:39 +1300

We examine the implications of the conflict in the Mideast to our region and discuss a recent essay in Foreign Affairs that calls for a change of approach to US Mideast strategy. The Khalistan movement has supporters in NZ that are holding a referendum on Sikh independence. Then the sad news of the sinking of the RNZN survey ship in Samoa while doing a survey of the seabed.

Episode 38: Asia Power index, China and changing power in East Asia talk by Prof Robert Ross of Boston College

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 21:23:03 +1300

Lowy Institute released its new Asia Power index, we discuss the method and design of this power index. How does the construction of an index affects the rankings of countries?

Episode 37: Research on Pacific maritime spaces, Harris/Trump debate, US electoral battleground states

Mon, 30 Sep 2024 19:41:14 +1300

We chat about two research papers we conducted on Pacific maritime space. One research is about Fiji and Solomon Islands and how these two countries exercise their agency and the second paper is on fisheries and maritime security issues. We then talk about our own impressions of the US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Lastly, we discuss a BBC article on the battleground states in this November's US presidential election. Does issue saliency affected by the politics within these battleground states?

Episode 36: Indonesia-China the next stoush in the South China Sea, a possible standoff between the Global South and China and Pope Francis in Southeast Asia

Sun, 22 Sep 2024 23:27:52 +1200

Indonesian activity in the South China Sea is increasing as the country builds its own military bases in disputed waters while ferreting out Chinese fishing vessels that intrude into their EEZ. Is this another conflict that adds to an already tense theatre? Chinese industrial overcapacity has seen protectionist actions by members of the Global South, what does this mean for Chinese ambitions as a leader of this group and its own domestic concerns? Pope Francis was in Southeast Asia, praising the diversity and social harmony in the region, what lessons can the rest of the world take from the experiences of the Southeast Asian nations in building diverse societies?

Episode 35: Danger of planning for peaked China? US urged to dropped obsession of being Number 1

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 04:11:03 +1200

Two articles published in prominent foreign policy magazines from well-known observers of international affairs of the Asia-Pacific. Ryan Haas in his article suggested that US planning policies on the basis of peaked China is not a good idea. Second article is a letter from Singapore to the next US president urging the US to stopped being so obsessed with being number 1.

Episode 34: Japan PM Kishida steps down, Thailand has new PM, Jokowi maneuvering behind the scenes, and NZ PM Luxon's speech at Lowy in Sydney

Sat, 07 Sep 2024 05:34:01 +1200

Japan PM Kishida steps down and opens up new leadership contest within the LDP. Is it 'plus ca change' in the case of Japanese politics? Clan politics seem to be the name of the game in two Southeast Asian countries -- Thailand and Indonesia. Thailand's new PM is the formerly exiled Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter and the Shinawatra family seem to be on the mend with other significant actors in Thailand. Indonesia's outgoing president Jokowi was supposed to be the outsider but now seems to be ensuring that his family/clan will be signficant insiders in Indonesian politics. Lastly, NZ PM Chris Luxon gave an important foreign policy speech in Sydney. So now that Luxon talks the talk, the question remains is can he also walk the walk considering the difficult economic situation NZ finds itself in today.

Episode 33: Hullaballoo of the upcoming US elections: observations from the ground

Sun, 25 Aug 2024 21:50:59 +1200

The US election in November is creating lots of anxieties globally. Despite the excitement with the Kamala Harris candidacy, questions remain about what is likely to happen the day after the first Tuesday of November. What does a Harris presidency mean Asia-Pacific? What does a second Trump administration mean for international relations of Asia-Pacific?

Episode 32: Geography, International Relations Theory, and Understanding the International Relations of the Asia-Pacific

Sat, 17 Aug 2024 22:41:31 +1200

Theories of international relations have been constructed from experiences of continental Europe. Yet, in the Asia-Pacific it seems like a uneasy fit because of the complex geography of the region. In this episode, Dr Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center in Washington DC explains to us her research on geography and its implications to coalition-building in the Asia-Pacific region.

Episode 31: UK Foreign Minister visits India, Trump playing the race card again, Central Bank and the inflation-interest rate conundrum

Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:29:27 +1200

UK foreign minister David Lammy visits India very early into the new Labour government term in the hopes of resetting UK-India relations and mark by a focus on the importance of trade and economics. Trump in an appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists made a controversial comment on presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris' Black and Indian dual identities. Trump's comment shows an ignorance of identity code-switching. Lastly, global central banks seem to feel that the worse of pandemic era inflation is at an end but when to start moving interest rates downward is still more art than science.

Episode 30: Joe Biden out and Kamala Harris in, Bangladesh riots, Japan's population decline, NZ PM's low approval rating, and Olympic spying scandal

Mon, 29 Jul 2024 17:15:47 +1200

US President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and VP Kamala Harris is in the race. Is this the shot in the arm that the Democrats are looking for? Will the Democrats be able to retain the White House? Deadly riots in Bangladesh due to student protests on job quotas. Is there more to these riots that what meets the eye? Japan reported a 15th year of population decline. What are the implications of continued shrinking population? NZ PM Luxon has been on the job less than 12 months and already his approval ratings have dropped. Why? Paris Olympic has started and even before the Olympic flame has been lit in the opening ceremony, a spying scandal involving the Canada's women football team has dented the idea of 'fair play' that the Olympics stand for.

Episode 29: Modi visits Putin and the continuing saga of the US election campaign season

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 15:13:28 +1200

Indian Prime Minister Modi visits Putin in Moscow. Is India playing both sides or is this what is called 'strategic autonomy?' Days before the Republican National Convention, there was an attempted assassination of ex-president Donald Trump who is also the Republican presidential nominee. In the RNC convention, Trump selected a young Ohio politician who seems to be a younger version of Trump. Meanwhile Democrats are trying to advise Biden to drop out of his reelection bid...which he did on Sunday...that surprised his VP Kamala Harris who he has endorsed as the Democratic nominee.

Episode 28: UK 2024 general election: Another one bites the dust? Or too hard to say I am sorry?

Mon, 08 Jul 2024 17:27:31 +1200

We discuss the huge Labour party victory and the calamitous Conservative party defeat in the UK general election of 2024.

Episode 27: Fallout of the Biden/Trump debate, Russia-North Korea defense pact, China feared and US humble

Tue, 02 Jul 2024 02:25:12 +1200

We discuss the fallout of the Biden/Trump debate for our region, is Plan B now Plan A? Putin and Kim Jong-Un signed a mutual defense pact, what are the implications for regional security? ISEAS study that re-analysed the Southeast Asian survey and inferred that China's power is recognised but feared meanwhile NYT article suggests that US is a more humble superpower in China's neighbourhood of the Asia-Pacific.

Episode 26: NZ's "independent" foreign policy? Modi's Taiwan overtures? The end of petrodollars?

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 10:09:05 +1200

What is independent about NZ's independent foreign policy? Is it myth or reality? Is it tautological? Does using the term prevent true discussion of NZ's foreign policy direction? Modi's response to a congratulatory message from Taiwan's president drew the expected protest from the PRC. Are there meanings behind these overtures? Saudi and US are ending a 50-year long agreement to price Saudi oil in US dollars and Saudi's commitment to use its oil revenues to purchase US Treasury bonds. This news barely made the headlines! What are the implications?

Episode 25: Shangri-La dialogue wrap up, India's surprise election result, and North Korean trash balloons

Tue, 11 Jun 2024 03:16:02 +1200

This episode begins with our impressions of the just concluded Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore. India's election results are in and Modi's party requires the support of other parties to form a majority. What are the implications of this surprising election outcome? North Korea has been flying trash balloons across their southern border and now a response from the South Koreans.

Episode 24: Divine Modi? Dangerous rhetoric in Indian election, Marcos Jr draws a red line, and Trump convicted

Sun, 02 Jun 2024 14:24:44 +1200

India's election is seeing dangerous rhetoric of anti-Muslim and heightened Hindu nationalism as well as the spectacular claims of Modi speaking to God. In a speech at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, has Philippine president Bongbong Marcos inadvertently drew a red line in the Philippine-China skirmishes in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea)? Did it just raise the temperature in these skirmishes? Ex-US president Trump is now a convicted felon being found guilty of all 34 counts in the 'hush money' trial in New York. This throws another 'monkey wrench' to an already worrying campaign period leading up to the November election. What are the implications to the legitimacy of American political institutions and future of American democracy as we know it? Rishi Sunak is having it tough after he called for UK general election. Is the Sunak government grasping for straws to prevent the likely wipeout?

Episode 23: Economic limits to US exceptionalism, undermining rules based order, UK election

Mon, 27 May 2024 15:19:56 +1200

Excellent essay on the macroeconomic limits of US exceptionalism and what it means for the increasingly protectionist global trading regime and the resurgence of mercantilism. Is the US undermining the rules based order that it was a chief architect and proponent of in the post-WW2 period? A rain-drenched UK PM Rishi Sunak announced an earlier than expected general election date in the courtyard of 10 Downing Street. Is this an omen for a Conservative washout in the July general election?

Episode 22: UK to out-cooperate in foreign affairs, Putin-Xi meeting, Indian spies in Australia, spy for a mayor?

Mon, 20 May 2024 06:11:19 +1200

Lord Cameron calls UK to out-cooperate, out-compete, and out-innovate in foreign affairs. What does it mean in action? Xi rolls out the red carpet for Putin. Is this still a partnership of equals? India has been accused by Australia for operating a spy network. India acting like a great power? A small town mayor in the Philippines is suspected of being a Chinese spy...but that is not all...the story gets stranger.

Episode 21: Misunderstanding Asian states and Democracy, Autocracy and the State of the World

Mon, 06 May 2024 14:22:09 +1200

A May 2, 2024 article published in Foreign Affairs examines the problem of misunderstanding of the Asian states and how they position themselves in the context of great power competition. This fundamental misread of the Asian states is showing in the 'one size fits all' foreign policies of major powers towards Asia...particularly Southeast Asia. In an April 2024 publication of the prestigious academic journal - Democratization - the Varieties of Democracy team shares an excellent presentation of the state of world today and shows that liberal democracies are challenge.

Episode 20: Double-standard in foreign policy? Most revolutionary period in history?

Mon, 29 Apr 2024 20:35:43 +1200

Norway's deputy foreign minister rebuts accusations about double-standard in foreign policy of Western countries and argues that at least in the case of Norway they have tried to be consistent in their foreign policy. Is it easier for smaller states to be consistent? Is it more difficult for major powers engaging in multiple issue dimensions to be consistent so that they appear double-standard? Do values trump interest? Or should interest dominate all international political actions? In a recent excellent episode of Freakonomics podcast program focused on a discussion with Fareed Zakaria of whether we are living in the most revolutionary period in human history. We share our individual take on the thought-provoking episode.

Episode 19: Iran retaliates against Israel and Post-Globalization, Mercantilism 2.0, and the Three Body Problem

Sun, 14 Apr 2024 22:11:08 +1200

Iran retaliates against Israel for bombing its Damascus consulate. Will this expand the Middle East conflict? How does it impact on the Indo-Pacific region? What does it mean for international order? What does it say about the hegemon's management of the international order? Biden administration has doubled-down on the trade policies that started with Trump. In a recent trip to China, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blasted China for its industrial overcapacity. US is even considering banning Chinese electric vehicle imports in name of national security. On top of that, US are requiring exporters to provide a no-China input certificate for products sold to the US. Are we now in a post-globalization world? Have we entered a new era of mercantilism and beggar thy neighbor in this 21st century? What does it mean to global peace and stability?

Episode 18: The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report and Some News Updates

Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:15:14 +1200

ISEAS of Singapore released its recent State of the Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report that is available from their website. We chat about some of the interesting findings from this longitudinal public opinion poll. We also give an update to the big news items that we are following since the start of 2024.

Episode 17: Moscow terror attack, China's economic headaches, democracy index, and bible salesman

Fri, 29 Mar 2024 22:13:35 +1300

ISIS launched a terror attack in Moscow and Russia failed to heed warnings given by the US. Non-state actors are rearing its ugly head on global politics again at a time when appetite for global cooperation is low. China's economy is stagnating but the reform required to switch its economy to be domestic demand driven is hard to come by. India wanted to create a new democracy index as its rankings in global democracy index continues to drop. Lastly, Trump is now peddling a 'God Bless the USA' bible that seems to be a direct appeal to evangelical voters.

Episode 16: Mr. Peters goes to New Delhi and Southeast Asia and China's FM Wang Yi drops by Wellington

Mon, 25 Mar 2024 22:55:41 +1300

NZ Foreign Affairs minister Winston Peters recently visited India and Southeast Asia. Is this NZ's version of de-risking and diversification of its relationships in the region? China's Foreign Affairs minister Wang Yi visited Wellington very recently. What is the significance of this meeting?

Episode 15: Prabowo presidency in Indonesia and Taylor Swift's concerts in Singapore

Mon, 04 Mar 2024 11:47:30 +1300

Prabowo Subianto has claimed a huge win in the Indonesian presidential elections but faced a fragmented legislature. What are the challenges that a Prabowo presidency faces? What are the implications to ASEAN relations and Indonesia's relations with China and the US? News of Singapore's subsidy for exclusive shows of Taylor Swift's Era Tour in Southeast Asia has raised protest from some ASEAN politicians of Singapore not being a 'good neighbor.' What does it say about ASEAN solidarity or it is simply an action of an entrepreneurial state?

Episode 14: AUS-NZ Ministerial meetings, Indonesian election cartoons, spy pigeons, Nevada primary

Sun, 11 Feb 2024 22:50:44 +1300

ANZMIN 2+2 is the first ministerial level consultations between NZ and Australian foreign affairs and defense ministers. The joint statement of the ANZMIN released by the NZ government marks a clear shift in NZ's explicit posturing regards to AUKUS, QUAD, and Indo-Pacific issues. Indonesia's presidential election will be held on 14 February, the use of cartoon as a campaign tool seem to be creating a positive and softer image of the leading presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto. India detained a pigeon for eight months on the suspicion of being a Chinese spy...in the age of AI can this be true? Nikki Haley lost the Nevada Republican primary to 'none of the above.' How long will she able to stay in the race?

Episode 13: Taiwan's 2024 elections: democracy has won, the people have spoken, now what's next

Sun, 21 Jan 2024 22:41:49 +1300

Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections was successfully held on 13 January 2024. With the world's attention focus on this election, the election returned a third presidential term for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) but it failed to retain its legislative majority. Taiwan will have a divided government for the next four years. What are the implications to geopolitics, cross-Straits relations, and domestic politics?

Episode 12: Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and what to watch out for in 2024

Sun, 07 Jan 2024 08:31:31 +1300

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis threaten to add more stress to the vulnerable global supply chains and unravel the anti-inflationary economic policies of countries around the world. A joint statement released by the White House and signed by many leading nations including New Zealand condemn the attacks on Red Sea shipping. These attacks are mired in the bigger geopolitical events in the the Mideast and the complexities international politics. Panelists suggest what issues they are following for 2024.

Episode 11: Biden-Xi face to face meeting ahead of APEC Summit in San Francisco: Is this a meeting of two desperados?

Tue, 21 Nov 2023 03:15:06 +1300

US President Biden and Chinese President Xi had a first ever in person meeting in three years of Biden's administration. Sino-US relations have deteriorated since 2017 with Trump's America First and MAGA foreign policies and Biden administration has doubled down on what the Trump administration's China policy. With the weak economic performance of the Chinese economy of late and the many problems that Biden faces at home putting his re-election chances for a second term at risk, this meeting holds importance for both leaders for various reasons. Why did it happen when it happened? What are the implications of domestic politics and domestic audience costs of this meeting? What does it mean for small states in the region?

Episode 10: Jokowi’s legacy, Indonesia’s regional leadership potential, Modi and India’s Middle East policy

Mon, 13 Nov 2023 10:50:00 +1300

The Economist published two articles that caught our attention one titled "What will Indonesia look like after Jokowi leaves?" and a second one titled "Narendra Modi has shifted India from the Palestinians to Israel." These two countries have great potential to take up more leadership position in the Indo-Pacific but something seems to be holding them back. What role does domestic politics play in the two countries international positioning? What are the stimulus and constraints that explain why Indonesia and India act the way they do?

Episode 9: New Economic Security State or New Great Power Protectionism

Tue, 31 Oct 2023 10:03:40 +1300

In the October 19th issue of Foreign Affairs, an essay about the so-called New Economic Security State explains how the Biden Administration and its national security chief conceptualizes the relationship between market, economy, and national security. This 'new' thinking is supposed to recalibrate the excesses of globalization and faith on the market but then avoid the Cold War hard core emphasis on security over economics. Is this 'new' thinking really new or is it a re-hash of ideas brought up in the late 1980s when the US was concerned about Japan's and Germany's economic strength? Is security simply an alibi for great power protectionism? Can the US shed its own DNA to implement a whole economy industrial policy?

Episode 8: NZ General Election 2023 and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza

Mon, 16 Oct 2023 05:50:58 +1300

The results of the New Zealand General Election of 14 October 2023 are in. The incumbent Labour government was resoundingly defeated by the centre-right National Party. National will be able to form a two-party coalition with another party to its right, ACT. What does this mean for NZ's foreign policy, defense, and strategic policies? The Middle East is grabbing headline news again with the Israeli-Hamas conflict. What does it mean for the Indo-Pacific region?

Episode 7: Another one bites the dust? Prickly toes? Putin-Kim bromance? A brewing India-Canada diplomatic row?

Thu, 21 Sep 2023 22:48:33 +1200

China's defense minister Li Shangfu has not been seen and there are speculation that he has been sacked and being investigated for corruption. This is the second disappearance and sacking of senior ministers handpicked by President Xi. So is President Xi really the strongman that we think he is? Ex-foreign minister of Singapore waded into the China-Taiwan issue and may have step on prickly toes. To Russia with love and Kim Jong-un's meeting with Putin in Russian Far East, what does this mean for regional security? And lastly, Canada and India are headbutting and a diplomatic row has resulted. What are the implications to American (and its allies) courtship of India to join in a coalition to contain China?

Episode 6: The more the merrier: ASEAN Jakarta Summit, G20 New Delhi Summit, Xi Jinping no-show

Sun, 10 Sep 2023 01:25:28 +1200

ASEAN just concluded its Jakarta summit while Indian PM Modi is hosting the G20 summit in New Delhi. With the geopolitical and geoeconomics tension in the region, is ASEAN still a relevant player? While India is relishing in the limelight hosting the G20 summit one talking point is the absence of China's Xi Jinping. Interestingly, the proliferation of bilateral meetings by middle powers, e.g., Australia and India, with Southeast Asian states on the sideline of the summit are making headlines.

Episode 5: US-Korea-Japan leaders’ meeting, BRICS South Africa summit, Middle Power in Global Politics

Sat, 26 Aug 2023 22:12:46 +1200

US President Joe Biden hosted ROK President Yoon and Japan PM Kishida in Camp David for a trilateral summit meeting that seeks to deepen its security partnership to strengthen trilateral deterrence and contribute to long-term balance of power in East Asia and in the Indo-Pacific. BRICS summit in South Africa added six new members to this economic forum of the non-G7 countries. Are these evidence of greater agency of middle powers in the context of the US-China strategic competition? Why are the middle powers taking the initiative? Can the middle powers be considered as another pole between the two poles of US and China?

Episode 4: China-Philippine tension in the South China Sea and Trump’s third indictment

Sun, 13 Aug 2023 23:03:05 +1200

The Philippines accused China's coast guard of firing water cannon at a Philippine ship supplying one of its 'outpost' in the South China Sea. What is the background of this tension? Is this a tit-for-tat action by China against the current Marcos' administration move away from the China-friendly foreign policy of the Duterte administration? Former US President Trump was indicted on his role in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. What are the implications of the 'mess' in domestic US politics to the Indo-Pacific region? How will Indo-Pacific countries react according to what they see happening in the US?

Episode 3: Qin Gang canned; Blinken, Albanese, Macron and the summer South Pacific tour: What’s the buzz...tell me what’s a-happening?

Sat, 29 Jul 2023 14:00:55 +1200

Up north, Qin Gang has gone from a missing Foreign Affairs Minister of the PRC to a missing ex-Foreign Affairs Minister. Down south, leaders and top diplomats of the West are here on a charm offensive all singing that famous Backstreet Boys line: "Don't care who you are, where you're from...as long as you love me."

Episode 2: New Zealand’s ’independent foreign policy:’ Walking cool but can it walk the line and face the ties that bind?

Sun, 23 Jul 2023 14:05:30 +1200

New Zealand PM Chris Hipkins delivered three foreign policy speeches in a short span of 10 days -- from July 7 to July 17. Like any small state, NZ is caught in between the intensification of the US-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region. As a Five Eyes member and IP4 partner of NATO, NZ is trying to balance its relations between the two great powers of US and the PRC. Did the PM's speech work? Is NZ's independent foreign policy a case of a foreign policy that has not been tested in the post Cold War era?

Episode 1: NATO and Ukraine, NATO in Asia-Pacific, Betting on India

Fri, 14 Jul 2023 19:42:53 +1200

This episode is on NATO's recent summit discussing Ukraine membership and its likely role in the Asia-Pacific. How do we make sense of what happened in Vilnius and the implications to the Asia-Pacific region? With talk of diversification of supply chain and de-risking, India has become the 'favourite' to take the title of factory of the world from China. Yet, Foxconn pulling out of a $19 billion semiconductor manufacturing in India may signal that the bet is at best a long-shot?