New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy | Podcasts

Global Hotspots: The Mecca Pact and a New Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan Bloc

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 16:46:10 +0000

In this week's episode, Shahad Turkistani, Analyst at New Lines Institute, returns to break down the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, the trilateral pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on 7 August, which commits all three to treat an armed attack on any one of them as an attack on all.

Additionally this week, Milos Maggiore and Andrew Loftesnes discuss developments in the Middle East, where Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait killed at least six people and disrupted international shipping, while Iranian officials stated that negotiations with the U.S. are at a deadlock.

In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted a joint naval patrol with an Indonesian warship off Taiwan’s east coast, while Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a disputed island with Japan. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that North Korea would be sending additional troops and weapons to the conflict while Putin threatened to respond in kind to recent European seizures of Russian shadow fleet vessels. In the Americas, a Canadian petition to expel U.S. ambassador Pete Hoekstra is set to be discussed in the House of Commons, while U.S. judges have found the Trump administration to be using an unlawful interpretation of the law to justify its mass detention policy.

Global Hotspots: Exploring the possibility of Hamas disarmament

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump called off a planned strike against Iran and hailed progress in negotiations between Israel and Hamas while Israeli forces clashed with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In the Indo-Pacific, China and the U.S. imposed reciprocal targeted tariffs and sanctions, while Chinese traders resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian strikes on Kyiv killed at least 17 people after Ukraine’s forces ran out of interceptor missiles, and a drone carrying explosive material was found and diffused near a military transport airport in Leipzig, Germany.

In the United States, Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Michigan on a progressive platform, while acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche rescinded the Trump-backed “anti-weaponization fund” following weeks of negotiations in the Senate.

Global Hotspots: Examining the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal with Shahad Turkistani

Fri, 31 Jul 2026 15:10:30 +0000

This week, we are joined by our colleague Shahad Turkistani to examine in more detail the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal. In other developments, Saudi Arabia joined the U.S. in conducting airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, drawing retaliatory strikes against Saudi energy infrastructure as regional hostilities expanded, while a Hezbollah drone strike threatened the Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. shared a photo of a joint coast guard patrol with Taiwan for the first time, while China warned of retaliatory measures against any future U.S. sanctions on its AI industry. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. Senate approved new sanctions legislation targeting Russia as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, while Ukrainian forces struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.

Global Hotspots: Unpacking the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal and the ASEAN summit

Fri, 24 Jul 2026 15:53:11 +0000

This week, a new front opened in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran as the Yemeni al-Houthi rebel group fired on Saudi oil tankers attempting to cross the Bab al-Mandeb. Meanwhile, Israel began returning control of occupied Lebanese territory to the Lebanese army.

In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted two days of live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and clashed with Philippine vessels in the South China Sea during the ASEAN summit in Manila.

In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Lithuania’s defense minister warned of an increased risk of Russian sabotage operations in the Baltics, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replaced the head of the Ukrainian armed forces after last week’s firing of its defense minister led to nationwide protests.

In the U.S., the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security threatened to prosecute state officials who do not use a DHS database for voter validation, while the U.S. sent the first shipment of $100 million in humanitarian aid to Cuba.

Global Hotspots Outlook: US and Iran Conflict Re-escalates

Fri, 17 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0000

This week, the U.S. renewed strikes against Iran and a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Israel and Lebanon held negotiations in Rome.

In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. confirmed it had started to sell minimal amounts of Nvidia H200 microchips to China, and Taiwan announced an additional $100 billion investment in the United States’ advanced chip industry. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the U.S. unveiled legislation that would enact sanctions against the Russian economy following support from U.S.

President Donald Trump, while protests took place across Ukraine following President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to reshuffle his Cabinet. In global trade, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 25% tariff on all Brazilian imports, with tariffs on other trading partners expected to be announced in upcoming weeks.

Global Hotspots: Q3 Forecast - Bolivia, Sahel, Sudan, Morocco, DRC

Tue, 07 Jul 2026 21:20:36 +0000

In this second episode reviewing our recently published 2026 Q3 Forecast report, our team focuses on Bolivia, Sudan, and the DRC among some of the countries not covered in part 1, providing an outlook on the domestic and international situation related to these countries going into the third quarter.

Global Hotspots: Q3 Forecast - Americas, Middle East, Indo-Pacific, and Russia/Ukraine

Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:22:28 +0000

In this episode, our team highlights our recently published 2026 Q3 Forecast report on geopolitical hotspots around the world and their implications on global connectivity themes like trade, technology, energy, and climate. In part 1 of this podcast, we focus on the US/Americas, the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific, and the Russia/Ukraine war, discussing the most important events from the past three months, and looking ahead at what the next quarter may bring.

Global Hotspots: Iran Ceasefire Update and Ukraine's Ultimatum to Belarus

Fri, 26 Jun 2026 16:23:54 +0000

This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanded Belarus remove military equipment from their shared border, while Ukrainian forces continued attacking energy and transport infrastructure near Moscow and in Crimea. In the Indo-Pacific, China sanctioned two critical minerals companies in the U.S., while U.S. AI company Anthropic accused Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba of copying its software. In the Middle East, Israel continued airstrikes against Lebanon despite ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with Israeli officials reiterating that they would not withdraw from the country.

Global Hotspots: Unpacking the U.S./Iran Ceasefire Deal

Thu, 18 Jun 2026 18:27:21 +0000

This week, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding paving the way for a ceasefire and two months of negotiations aimed at settling their conflict.

Meanwhile, Israel stated it would continue to occupy territory in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan’s opposition leader met with members of the U.S. Congress in Washington, while the U.K. and Japan agreed to boost defense and economic cooperation.

In Ukraine transatlantic relations, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced a six-month review of the U.S. military presence in Europe, while Ukrainian drones continued to strike oil in Russia, including one close to Moscow.

In the U.S., lawmakers continued to debate the renewal of the Foreign Surveillance Authorization Act (FISA), which the White House has now linked to its ambitions for voter identification reform.

Contours: Gender Policy Podcast, Women and Power

Mon, 15 Jun 2026 18:41:21 +0000

Riley Sullivan sits down with Linda Robinson, Senior Fellow for Women and Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss the dynamics of democracy, gender equality, and women's leadership, as well as her new book, Women in Power: Fighting for Democracy in an Age of Authoritarianism.

Global Hotspots: Strait of Hormuz Closed; Ethiopian Elections Impact

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 15:44:30 +0000

This week, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after it and the U.S. traded strikes. Elsewhere in the Middle East, Israel continued its bombing campaign against Lebanon.

In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. sanctioned Chinese entities for their role in supporting Iran, while Chinese President Xi Jinping met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang for the first time in seven years. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine continued its long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Nordic and Baltic leaders in Estonia following accidental Ukrainian drone incursions into the region.

In the Americas, Congress passed a $70 billion measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security after months of stalling, while Cuba’s private sector is set to receive 250,000 barrels of oil from the U.S., pending approval from the Trump administration.

Global Hotspots: Trump Confirms Netanyahu Quarrel; Ukraine Hits St. Petersburg

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 15:33:00 +0000

This week, the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes amid continued diplomacy, while Israel continued its ground operations in Lebanon despite a conditional ceasefire agreement between them. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. set out new guidance designed to close loopholes that allowed China to receive advanced AI chips, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth pushed for increased allied defense spending at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue.

In transatlantic relations and the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian long-range drones struck an oil terminal near St. Petersburg during its hosting of an annual international economic forum as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the EU voted to start accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova.

In the United States, President Donald Trump canceled the establishment of a $1.8 billion fund to compensate, among others, Jan., while the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative called for the imposition of at least 10% tariffs on more than 60 trading partners.

Global Hotspots: U.S.-Cuba Tensions Simmer as Tech Takes Center Stage in Indo-Pacific

Fri, 29 May 2026 15:05:54 +0000

This week, the United States and Iran traded airstrikes as peace negotiations continued, while Israel intensified strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon despite the recent ceasefire extension.

In the Indo-Pacific, Nvidia pledged an annual $150 billion investment in Taiwan while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited India in an attempt to shore up ties within the Quad framework.

In transatlantic relations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov advised the U.S. to pull its citizens and diplomatic staff out of Kyiv amid the threat of intensified Russian strikes, while European NATO countries bolstered defenses in the Baltics.

In the Americas, China delivered 15,000 tons of rice to Cuba as part of a humanitarian relief package, and the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly planning military action in the event of a possible regime collapse by the end of the summer.

How Do We Measure Illicit Economies? | Crime Beat Conversations featuring Henry Ziemer

Thu, 28 May 2026 21:45:32 +0000

How do we measure the size of illicit economies, and what can seizure data actually tell us about the effectiveness of enforcement policies?

In this episode of Crime Beat Conversations, Rafaella Lispschitz speaks with Henry Ziemer, Fellow with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), about the challenges of measuring illicit markets and evaluating interdiction efforts.

The conversation examines:

- The methodologies used to estimate the size of illicit economies
- What seizure data can (and cannot) reveal about market activity
- The limitations of using interdiction figures as a measure of policy success
- What more effective metrics could look like for policymakers and researchers

Watch the full conversation for a closer look at how evidence, data, and methodology shape our understanding of illicit markets and policy responses.

Read Henry’s piece on illicit economy data here: https://www.caballeros.blog/p/the-missing-data-on-illicit-economies

Find Henry’s blog, Caballeros, here: https://www.caballeros.blog/

For more from Henry, follow on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/henry-suckow-ziemer-6a5007158/) and X (https://x.com/HenryZiemer)

A New Lines Institute Mafiacracies Project production: https://newlinesinstitute.org/initiative/mafiacracies-project/

For more from Rafaella, follow on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/rlipschitz) and X (https://x.com/rlipschitz01)

Explore similar analysis and forecasting from New Lines institute: https://newlinesinstitute.org/

Follow our socials for news on upcoming events, analysis, infographics, and more! https://linktr.ee/NewLinesInstitute

Global Hotspots: Putin Meets Xi in Beijing and a new Ebola Strain in DRC

Fri, 22 May 2026 14:24:54 +0000

This week, Iran stated it was reviewing the latest peace proposal from the United States after the U.S. delayed planned strikes, while Pakistan deployed 8,000 troops to Saudi Arabia in the event of renewed hostilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, while U.S. President Donald Trump stated willingness to discuss renewed arms sales to Taiwan, prompting China to delay a meeting with U.S. defense officials.

In transatlantic relations, the Trump administration stated it would reduce the number of forces it would commit to a conflict in Europe, while Russian drones repeatedly crossed into Latvian airspace.

The U.S. charged former Cuban President Raul Castro with conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens in 1996, as Washington continues to exert pressure on the island to reform its governance structure.

Global Hotspots: Trump Meets Xi in Beijing

Fri, 15 May 2026 13:26:43 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a long-anticipated summit in which the leaders discussed trade relations, the Iran war, and Taiwan.

In the Middle East, Trump rejected a peace proposal by Iran, while representatives from Lebanon and Israel met in Washington, D.C., for a new round of discussions on Hezbollah’s disarmament.

In the Russia/Ukraine war, both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin made separate statements indicating they believe the war was soon coming to an end despite Russia launching a new wave drone strikes across Ukraine. In the Americas, Cuba announced it had run out of diesel and fuel oil stockpiles, while the U.S. Senate appointed Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair.

Global Hotspots: U.S. Peace Proposal for Iran, and Troop Withdrawal from Germany

Fri, 08 May 2026 14:05:54 +0000

This week, Iran considered a one-page peace proposal sent by the United States that would end hostilities, while Israel issued new evacuation orders for southern Lebanon and bombed Beirut despite an ongoing ceasefire.

In the Indo-Pacific, China gave conflicting advice to its banks on how to respond to U.S. sanctions, citing a violation of international law, while the EU took steps to reduce its technological dependency on Chinese hardware imports.

In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia conducted airstrikes despite a Ukrainian ceasefire proposal, while mobile internet access in Moscow and St. Petersburg was shut off due to security concerns surrounding upcoming Victory Day parades and U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to withdraw 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany.

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. Sanctions China over Iran

Fri, 01 May 2026 15:20:59 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal and ordered an extension of the blockade on Iranian ports, while Israel resumed military operations in Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. sanctioned a Chinese importer of Iranian oil, threatening more sanctions against China’s banking sector, while Beijing blocked Meta’s acquisition of a Chinese AI company. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a Victory Day ceasefire on May 9, while in transatlantic relations, Trump stated he was considering withdrawing U.S. troops from Germany amid ongoing diplomatic disagreements.

Global Hotspots: Outlook on the U.S.-Iran Ceasefire and Japanese Force Posturing

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 15:37:07 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump extended the ongoing ceasefire with Iran, while Iran rejected negotiations with U.S. Vice President JD Vance as the U.S. continued its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. In the Indo-Pacific, Japan removed export bans on lethal weapons, marking a shift in its pacifist policy, while Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te canceled a trip to Eswatini, accusing China of pressuring nearby countries to restrict their airspace. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the European Union approved a $106 billion loan to Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy renewed calls for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. Blockades Iran Amid Renewed Diplomacy

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 14:08:20 +0000

This week, the United States imposed a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing two-week ceasefire observed by the U.S., , with talks to extend it and resume diplomatic negotiations in Pakistan currently underway. In the Indo-Pacific, the in the South China Sea, while China eased some trade restrictions against Taiwan following last week’s negotiations with In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed multiple defense agreements with European countries, and the EU sought to move forward with dispensing a multibillion-dollar loan that had until now been held up by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who lost in last week’s parliamentary elections The U.S. has ramped up its planning for possible military action against Cuba amid continued talks over the country’s leadership.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots Outlook: US and Iran Reach Tenuous Ceasefire

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 17:20:01 +0000

This week, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire following President Donald Trump’s threats of targeting Iran's power plants and other infrastructure, while Israel escalated its bombing campaign against Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, South Korea met with representatives from Gulf countries to discuss securing energy supplies, and Taiwan’s opposition leader visited China, stalling Taipei’s efforts to pass a special defense budget. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both sides agreed to an Orthodox Easter ceasefire, while Trump met with NATO’s secretary general amid a strain between Washington and the transatlantic alliance. In the U.S., immigration enforcement operations continued despite a recent funding bill restricting funds from reaching border and immigration operations.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Contours: Gender Policy Podcast, Women and War in Ukraine

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 14:15:34 +0000

Student Fellow Riley Sullivan is joined by Dr. Kseniya Sotnikova, Ax:son Johnson Fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), to discuss women's roles in the war in Ukraine.

Learn more about Dr. Sotnikova: https://cepa.org/author/kseniya-sotnikova/

Learn more about New Lines' work on CRSV: https://newlinesinstitute.org/project/crsv/

Learn more about New Lines' work on Ukraine: https://newlinesinstitute.org/category/intl-law-peace/

Crime Beat Conversations: China-Cartel Nexus, Featuring Adam Rousselle

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 15:51:47 +0000

In this episode of Crime Beat Conversations, Rafaella Lipschitz talks to Adam Rousselle, illicit finance expert and founder of Between the Lines, to discuss Chinese money-laundering networks and their role as the financial backbone of Latin America’s drug cartels.

They explore how China’s internal capital flight pressures have produced a shadow financial architecture that connects Chinese elites to fentanyl networks in the America’s, and how traditional counter-narcotics enforcement misses the mark in combatting these illicit financial systems.

Stay tuned for more from Crime Beat Conversations.

Read Adam’s latest piece for the New Lines Institute here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/global-security-mil-priorities/china-cartel-nexus-the-liquidity-architecture-transforming-the-global-drug-economy/

Find Between the Lines here: https://www.btl-research.com/ For more from Adam, follow on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-rousselle-918659188/) and X (https://x.com/rousselle_adam)

A New Lines Institute Mafiacracies Project production: https://newlinesinstitute.org/initiative/mafiacracies-project/

For more from Rafaella, follow on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/rlipschitz) and X (https://x.com/rlipschitz01)

Explore similar analysis and forecasting from New Lines institute: https://newlinesinstitute.org/

Follow our socials for news on upcoming events, analysis, infographics, and more! https://linktr.ee/NewLinesInstitute

Global Hotspots: 2026 Q2 Forecast (Part 2)

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 15:14:03 +0000

In this episode, we continue to highlight our recently published 2026 Q2 forecast report on geopolitical hotspots around the world and their implications on global connectivity themes like trade, technology, energy, and climate. We discuss the internal destabilization happening in Iran, and review some of the main events that happened in Venezuela, the US, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and in conflicts in Africa. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: 2026 Q2 Forecast (Part 1)

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 14:50:26 +0000

This podcast highlights our recently published 2026 Q2 Forecast report on geopolitical hotspots around the world and their implications on global connectivity themes like trade, technology, energy, and climate. In part 1 of this podcast, we discuss our outlook for global hotspots like the Middle East, Indo-Pacific, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while in part 2 we cover the US/Americas and hotspots elsewhere throughout the world.

Global Hotspots: The U.S. and Iran trade diplomatic offers as military strikes continue

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 15:08:53 +0000

This week, the United States and Iran traded proposals for a diplomatic settlement to their war, with Pakistan working as an intermediary, while the U.S. sent an additional 2,000 troops to the region for a possible ground operation into Iran. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that there was “irrefutable evidence” of Russian intelligence aid to Iran, while the U.K. authorized its armed forces to board and seize Russian shadow fleet vessels. In the Indo-Pacific, a member of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces broke into the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo as Japan plans to downgrade relations with China, while the White House confirmed new dates for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The U.S. formally stated it would deny access to a Russian tanker aiming to deliver oil to Cuba, while continuing to allow U.S. suppliers to sell oil to Cuba’s private sector.

Global Hotspots Outlook: Energy and Economic Disruptions Grow Amid Iran Conflict

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 14:57:14 +0000

This week, the conflict in Iran intensified as the U.S. bombed military facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island and Israel bombed key Iranian energy facilities, with Iran responding with attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Israel also committed troops for a possible ground invasion of Lebanon.

In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump formally postponed a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping by a month in light of the Iran conflict, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visited Washington. Ukraine signed an agreement with the U.K. focusing on defense industry cooperation, while Türkiye stated it was willing to host a new round of negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. The U.S. continued its pressure campaign on Cuba, with Trump suggesting he wanted to “take” the island, while Russia pledged to deliver oil amid island-wide blackouts caused by the U.S. blockade.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S./Iran War Disrupts Global Energy Markets

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 15:57:26 +0000

This week, the U.S. and Israel continued their military campaigns against Iran and Lebanon, while Tehran vowed to block oil exports from the region, leading to worldwide repercussions in the energy sector.

Despite the strikes, China stated it would likely go ahead with an upcoming summit with President Donald Trump at the end of March, while the South Korean parliament approved the $350 billion investment in the United States.

Representatives from the Trump administration met with their Russian counterparts to discuss the potential easing of sanctions against Russia, while talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war remained on hold.

In the Americas, the Trump administration maintained pressure on Cuba and opened new trade investigations that could see new tariffs being imposed globally by July.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots Outlook: War between U.S., Israel, and Iran Goes Global

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 17:30:24 +0000

This week, the United States and Israel launched air- and naval-based attacks against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated with strikes against neighboring Gulf states and by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, talks between Russia and Ukraine have been postponed as the war detracted from diplomatic efforts in Abu Dhabi. In the Indo-Pacific, China held its annual National People’s Congress, approving the country’s new Five-Year Plan, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed deals with India and Australia. In the Americas, the U.S. eased some pressure on Cuba, allowing Venezuelan oil to be sold to Cuba’s private sector, while U.S. officials have threatened Venezuelan interim leader Delcy Rodriguez with indictment.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. and Iran Meet Amid Military Buildup

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 16:41:26 +0000

This week, tensions between Iran and the U.S. continued to rise despite ongoing negotiations, with Iran threatening repercussions if the U.S. were to attack and Israel threatening Lebanon with strikes against civilian infrastructure if Hezbollah acted in defense of Iran. In the Indo-Pacific, China restricted rare earth exports to Japan, and U.S. aerospace manufacturers warned of dwindling rare earth supplies, despite last year’s trade truce. The U.S. imposed a global 10% tariff following last week’s decision by the Supreme Court that invalidated IEEPA tariffs, and the Cuban Coast Guard killed four passengers of a U.S.-flagged speedboat that entered Cuban waters. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed optimism in upcoming trilateral negotiations with Russia and the U.S., while the U.S. held talks with Ukraine on post-conflict reconstruction.

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. Gears Up for Iran Military Operations

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 17:47:15 +0000

This week, the U.S. continued its buildup of naval and air forces near Iran for a potential military operation, while Iranian officials reported progress in diplomatic talks. In the United States, the Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, dealing a major blow to the administration’s trade policy. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the latest round of peace negotiations ended with inconclusive results, while world leaders gathered in Germany for the Munich Security Conference. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. unveiled plans to deploy more missile systems to the Philippines, while China prepared to receive German Chancellor Friederich Merz. As the U.S. pressure campaign against Cuba continued, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Cuban government representatives. Meanwhile, U.S. forces intercepted another Venezuelan-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Crime Beat Conversations: Mexican Cartel Splits and Alliances, Featuring Stefano Ritondale

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 19:14:53 +0000

In this episode of Crime Beat Conversations, Rafaella Lipschitz sat down with Stefano Ritondale again, to discuss the dynamics of the Sinaloa cartel civil war and emerging alliances between Los Chapitos, a faction of the Sinaloa cartel, and CJNG, Sinaloa’s historic rival. Stefano breaks down how the Sinaloa civil war has reframed how we should understand Mexican cartel alliances. We examine some of the ways CJNG is providing support to Los Chapitos in their fights against the Mayitos, what this alliance means for other Mexican cartels, and how policymakers should go about understanding this complex landscape. Stay tuned for more from Crime Beat Conversations.

Find Stefano’s piece on cartel militarization for New Lines Institute here:

https://newlinesinstitute.org/people/stefano-ritondale/

Learn more about Artorias: https://www.artorias.com/

For more from Stefano, follow on X (https://x.com/All_Source_News) and LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/stefano-ritondale-1046b5345/)

A New Lines Institute Mafiacracies Project production: https://newlinesinstitute.org/initiative/mafiacracies-project/

For more from Rafaella, follow on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/rlipschitz) and X (https://x.com/rlipschitz01)

Explore similar analysis and forecasting from New Lines institute: https://newlinesinstitute.org/

Follow our socials for news on upcoming events, analysis, infographics, and more! https://linktr.ee/NewLinesInstitute

Global Hotspots Outlook: Japan's Takaichi Secures Election Victory

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 16:42:03 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, after which Trump insisted that negotiations with Iran would continue, while Israel is reportedly preparing for a ground offensive in Gaza against Hamas.

In the Indo Pacific, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering constitutional reform following her party’s victory in parliament, while the U.S. is preparing a new arms sale to Taiwan.

In the Americas, Cuba has warned airline companies that they would no longer be able to refuel on the island amid the country’s energy crisis following an oil embargo by the United States.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted a U.S. invitation to participate in peace talks in Miami next week, while the European Union is preparing a list of concessions it will demand from Russia.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. and Iran Hold Talks Amid Rising Tensions

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 17:51:24 +0000

This week, the U.S. and Iran held talks in Oman over Iran’s nuclear program amid rising tensions following U.S. forces shooting down an Iranian reconnaissance drone in the Arabian Sea. In the U.S., the federal government reopened after a partial shutdown following commitments by the Trump administration to reduce the number of federal law enforcement officers in Minnesota. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. hailed a trade agreement with India following New Delhi’s reported commitment to halt Russian oil purchases, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted foreign leaders for a new trading block for critical minerals. Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. held trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi while Russia resumed strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure following a one-week stop in those bombings.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots Outlook: Trump Considers Iran Strikes

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 15:47:24 +0000

This week, in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump continued to weigh options for possible intervention in Iran and ordered military assets to be deployed in the region. In the U.S., Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer continued to negotiate a deal that would avert a U.S. government shutdown in exchange for restrictions on immigration enforcement, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified in Congress on the future of governance for Venezuela. In the Indo-Pacific, the Chinese government removed the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and authorized key tech companies to order Nvidia chips. Meanwhile, Russian and Ukrainian officials held talks in Abu Dhabi about ending their conflict, while Russian President Vladimir Putin stated a willingness to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Moscow.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: At Davos, Trump Walks Back Greenland Threats

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 15:19:07 +0000

This week, world leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, an event dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, which he later walked back following discussions with NATO. In the Middle East, Trump inaugurated his “Board of Peace” and ordered the Department of Defense to draw up plans for a possible intervention in Iran. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, top U.S. officials held separate meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russia continued its strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. Congress approved a revised defense budget that earmarks $1 billion for Taiwan’s defense, while the United Kingdom approved the controversial construction of China’s new embassy to the U.K. Register your interest to gain access to the 2026 Geopolitical Forecast Report and information on the latest forecasting and risk management platform developed by New Lines. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Pressures Iran on Protests; Greenland Diplomacy Ramps Up

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 15:38:47 +0000

This week, the White House ramped up pressure on Iran as the regime’s protest crackdown led to thousands of protestors dead according to varying accounts. Denmark and Greenland sent their top diplomats to negotiate with the U.S. over Greenland’s status, while European countries have sent small troop contingents to the island ahead of planned joint military exercises to assess how to ensure the country’s security. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump formally approved the sale of Nvidia chips to China despite remaining reservations on both sides, while Japan is preparing for possible snap elections. In Ukraine, Russia has continued to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, while its efforts to obtain security guarantees from the U.S. have stalled. Register your interest to gain access to the 2026 Geopolitical Forecast Report and information on the latest forecasting and risk management platform developed by New Lines. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S.-Venezuela Intervention and Worldwide Ripple Effects

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 15:13:52 +0000

This week, the United States conducted a major military operation against Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, with implications throughout the Americas and globally. In the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to intervene militarily in Iran as the country faces large-scale anti-government protests, while Saudi Arabia conducted strikes against UAE-backed forces in Yemen. In the Indo-Pacific, China banned all dual-use exports to Japanese military companies, while Chinese President Xi Jinping met with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, signaling increased cooperation. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the U.S. backed a security guarantees proposal for a Ukraine ceasefire, and Trump approved a bipartisan congressional sanctions package against Russia’s energy sector. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Armenia-Azerbaijan Diplomacy and Regional Connectivity Implications, Part 2

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 16:31:31 +0000

In this episode of the New Lines Contours Podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky sits down with Farid Shafiyev, the chairman of the Center of Analysis and International Relations and former ambassador for Azerbaijan to Canada and Czechia. Together, they discuss the developments over the last year in diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the economic interests foreign powers have in the region, and how the South Caucasus will develop in the future.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Diplomacy and Regional Connectivity Implications, Part 1

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 16:45:34 +0000

In this episode of the New Lines Contours Podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky sits down with Richard Giragosian, the founding director of the Regional Studies Center and a guest lecturer for the NATO Defense College in Rome. Together, they discuss the developments over the last year in diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the influence foreign powers have in the region, and how the South Caucasus will develop in the future.

Global Hotspots: Review and Forecast of Venezuela, DRC, Sudan, and Gen Z Protests

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 15:52:33 +0000

In the last Global Hotspots episode of 2025, Milos and Andrew sit down with New Lines student fellows Ashley Nunes and Sebastian Dittgen. Together, they discuss analytical hotspots New Lines analysts tracked in 2025, including Venezuela, the DRC, and the wave of Gen Z protests around the globe. Read the 2026 Forecast - https://newlinesinstitute.org/analytical-products/2026-annual-forecast/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: 2026 Annual Forecast

Mon, 15 Dec 2025 18:10:15 +0000

A global adaptation to a new state of the world driven by the White House’s approach to international relations will headline 2026. Efforts to de-escalate the war in Ukraine will persist and gain some traction. In the Middle East, the fragile ceasefire in Gaza will hold as tensions among Israel, Syria, and Iran continue to mount. A U.S.-China trade truce will keep the Indo-Pacific relatively stable economically, as the rival powers continue to vie for influence with diplomatic and security repercussions that extend well beyond the region. Global trade flows are expected to stabilize, supported by improving logistics conditions and more resilient supply-chain networks. At the same time, renewable energy will expand through new installations and a rising share in power generation, reinforced by efficiency gains from AI-driven technologies. Deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the possibility of armed conflict in Venezuela, and youth-driven protest movements will pose destabilization risks to various degrees around the world. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: 2025 in Review

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 16:00:43 +0000

A global adaptation to a new strategic environment will define 2026, driven by the White House’s approach to international relations. Though Washington will continue pursuing de-escalation in select conflict zones, the year ahead will be marked by persistent geopolitical frictions, intensifying hybrid competition, and acute humanitarian pressures. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251212/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The Unfinished Revolution: Syria’s Past and Future, 1 Year After Assad

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 17:00:23 +0000

In this episode, host Zara Farouk speaks with Syrian author and political dissident Yassin al-Haj Saleh about the long-term consequences of authoritarianism, the failures of the international community, and the evolution of political activism in exile. Their conversation reflects on lessons from the Syrian struggle and the possibilities for justice and renewal.

Global Hotspots: U.S. Ramps Up Diplomacy on Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Fri, 05 Dec 2025 15:13:55 +0000

These past two weeks, the U.S. ramped up diplomatic efforts with Russia and Ukraine to bring an end to the conflict, while Russian shadow fleet vessels were allegedly struck by Ukrainian drones. In the Middle East, Hamas transferred the remains of a hostage to Israel, while Lebanon confirmed it would conduct deconfliction talks with Israel following pressure from the United States. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump halted planned sanctions against China’s Ministry of State Security, and China ramped up its military presence near Japan amid increased tensions over Taiwan. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251205/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump Meets with Saudi Crown Prince to Sign New Bilateral Deal

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 15:48:13 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, approving the sale of F-35 fighter jets and designating Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally. The U.N. Security Council passed a resolution to implement Trump’s 20-point peace plan in Gaza, while clashes between Israel and Hamas continued. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. removed reciprocal tariffs from several imports from the Philippines and confirmed the sale of a missile system to Taiwan. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Poland blamed Russian operatives for sabotaging its railways, while U.S. officials met with their Ukrainian counterparts in Kyiv to discuss a new peace plan. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251121/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Antisemitism and Anti-Zionism: Untangling the Conflation

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 15:45:15 +0000

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast series, Rachel Nelson sits down with Ben Lorber, a senior research analyst at Political Research Associates and co-author of "Safety Through Solidarity: A Radical Guide to Fighting Antisemitism." They discuss how antisemitism has evolved in the context of Israel–Palestine and the most recent war in Gaza, the debate over defining and identifying it, and why solidarity with other marginalized groups is central to Jewish safety. Their conversation delves into Zionism and anti-Zionism, as well as ways to address the growing polarization around these political identities.

Global Hotspots: U.S.-Syria Diplomacy Progresses Amid Middle East Turbulence

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 15:32:09 +0000

This week in the Middle East, clashes between Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces hindered implementation of the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, while U.S. President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met in Washington. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Russian forces continued their drive to capture the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk and seized three villages in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast, while Canada imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s drone and energy industries. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China continued their mutual easing of trade restrictions, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks hinting at Japan’s potential military involvement in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan drew a strong rebuke from Beijing. The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251114/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Pushes Postwar Plan for Gaza

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 15:41:39 +0000

This week, in the Middle East the U.S. presented the U.N. Security Council with a draft resolution advancing the implementation of the “Board of Peace” as part of the Israel/Gaza ceasefire agreement, while Iran stated it would not engage in negotiations with the U.S. so long as Washington backs Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, China has started to remove tariffs and trade barriers following last week’s agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reached military cooperation agreements with China and Vietnam, while also preparing one with South Korea. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian drone attacks forced Russia to suspend some oil refining and export operations, while intense fighting continued near Pokrovsk amid a Russian push to capture the city. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251107/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

What the PKK Ceasefire Means for Türkiye’s Kurds

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 11:00:08 +0000

With the PKK announcing disarmament, New Lines' own Zara Farouk speaks with, Ceylan Akca, a DEM Party Politician in Türkiye's Grand National Assembly. Together, they explore whether this moment marks a true turning point or another pause in a long, unfinished struggle and what comes next for Kurdish rights, representation, and reconciliation in Türkiye.

Global Hotspots: U.S. Reaches Deals With China, Indo-Pacific States in Asia Summits

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 15:00:12 +0000

This week, in the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, where they agreed on new trade concessions following a weeklong series of meetings that saw the U.S. upgrading trade ties with regional allies. In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas traded ceasefire violation accusations following Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes on Gaza that resulted in over 100 Palestinian deaths. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia reported successful test launches of a nuclear-capable underwater drone and cruise missile, while Ukraine continued its campaign of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251031/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. and EU Sanction Russia Amid Diplomatic Setbacks

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 15:16:06 +0000

This week, the U.S. imposed sanctions against two Russian oil companies following the cancellation of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the EU passed sanctions against Russian energy infrastructure and vessels. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and Australia signed a new critical minerals deal ahead of an upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while the Chinese Communist Party approved a draft of its new five-year plan. In the Middle East, U.S. officials traveled to Israel in an attempt to bolster Gaza ceasefire efforts amid reports of clashes between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Palestinians. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251024/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Faces Challenges

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 13:58:27 +0000

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas started implementing the first phase of their ceasefire deal, although violations and delays were reported. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and said India confirmed it would halt Russian oil purchases. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Trump to discuss the U.S. possibly providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressured his Japanese counterparts to halt Russian oil purchases. Trump confirmed CIA covert operations in Venezuela as the Pentagon confirmed a striking a fifth alleged drug smuggling vessel in the Caribbean. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251017/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

U.S.-Based Charities are Funding Israeli Settlements

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 18:28:35 +0000

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast, host Rachel Nelson talks with Matthew Petti, an assistant editor at Reason whose work has appeared in outlets including the BBC, The Intercept, and New Lines Magazine. They discuss the covert funding of Israeli settlements by U.S.-registered charities, specifically what projects and purchases they are financing, how their work exacerbates violent conditions in the West Bank, and how U.S. policymakers approach the topic.

Global Hotspots: Israel and Hamas Reach Ceasefire Deal

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 13:51:53 +0000

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of a U.S.-led ceasefire deal following its signing in Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he may travel to Israel in the coming days. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded restrictions on rare earth exports and added sanctions against foreign defense companies, while North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea’s founding. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both countries continued to attack each other’s energy infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported successful ongoing operations in a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region. In the U.S., Trump called for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker to be imprisoned following the deployment of 500 National Guard troops to the state.

Global Hotspots: U.S. Launches New Peace Proposal for Israel-Gaza War

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 15:09:21 +0000

This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order providing safety guarantees to Qatar. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Trump is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and targeting intelligence, and G7 countries pledged to coordinate measures against nations importing Russian oil. In the Indo-Pacific, documents revealed that Russia was aiding China in its planning of airborne operations, while the U.S. indicated it was not making efforts to lower tariffs against China. In the U.S., a government shutdown began following deadlocked talks between Republicans and Democrats. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251003/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Q4 Forecast Outlook

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 13:31:47 +0000

The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive. In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption. Read the Q4 Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q4-2025-forecast/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Why Did the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan Fail?

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 20:42:20 +0000

In this episode of the Contours Podcast, host Robert Kremzner sits down with John Nagl and Jonathan Schroden, experts in irregular warfare and the American experience in Afghanistan. Together, they go over the strategic, operational, and tactical failure of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, how the Afghanistan withdrawal can inform future withdrawals, and President Donald Trump’s call to re-occupy the Bagram Airbase.

Global Hotspots: Israel Faces Diplomatic Fallout Amid Gaza City Offensive

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 14:30:26 +0000

This week, Israel initiated its full ground invasion of Gaza City, while the United Arab Emirates and other Arab states warned they may reconsider their diplomatic ties with Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework deal regarding the sale of Chinese social media app TikTok, extending its deadline, while China ordered its companies to stop buying microchips from U.S. chipmaker Nvidia. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump pressured European nations to suspend all energy imports from Russia, while Polish defense officials announced a joint cooperation initiative with Ukraine on countering drone attacks following last week’s incursion by Russian drones into Polish airspace. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve announced it would be cutting interest rates, with more cuts expected before the end of the year. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250919/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Inside the State Department: U.S. Policy on Israel and Palestine and the Future of Middle East Peace

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 10:00:41 +0000

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap Podcast, Rachel Nelson sits down with Andrew P. Miller, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP) and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. They discuss his experience shaping U.S. policy towards Israel/Palestine, including sanctions targeting perpetrators of violence in the West Bank, regional diplomacy, and the evolving role of U.S. engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially concerning Israel’s war in Gaza.

Global Hotspots: Israel Strikes Hamas in Qatar; Russian Drones Shot Down in Poland

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 16:13:20 +0000

This week, in the wake of an Israeli air attack targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar, Doha called for an emergency summit to convene next week. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, NATO forces shot down Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace from Ukraine, with Poland subsequently triggering NATO’s Article 4 consultation process. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that the EU pressure Russia by imposing tariffs on China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency apprehended 300 South Korean workers in Georgia, most of whom have since left the United States. In the U.S., conservative media personality and Trump ally Charlie Kirk was shot and killed at an event in Utah. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250912/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

A Gendered Analysis of Aggression and International Law

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 10:00:12 +0000

In this episode of Gendering Geopolitics, New Lines’ own Emily Prey sits down with renowned international lawyers Louise Arimatsu and Christine Chinkin, authors of the New Lines report “A Gendered Analysis of Aggression and International Law.” Among other topics, their discussion touches on how gender is used to justify aggression; the gaps in international law regarding slow, non-spectacular violence; and how a gender lens can help with atrocity prevention. Read the report here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/gender/a-gendered-analysis-of-aggression-and-international-law/

Global Hotspots: China Highlights Ties with Russia and North Korea at Key Summits

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 14:20:53 +0000

This week, China hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation security forum, attended by 20 foreign leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and representatives of Ukraine’s allies in a new round of discussions on Ukrainian security guarantees, while U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats of sanctions against Russia. In the Middle East, Israel’s campaign against Gaza City intensified while its Cabinet convened to discuss a proposal to further annex West Bank territory. In the Caribbean Sea, the U.S. launched a military strike against a vessel linked to drug smugglers who the Trump administration claim are operating under Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s orders. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250905/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The Withdrawal of UNIFIL from Lebanon

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 16:44:40 +0000

In this episode of the New Lines Countours podcast, Director Caroline Rose sits down with New Lines Senior Fellow Faysal Itani to discuss the potential withdrawal of the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL). Together, they discuss the role that UNIFIL has played over the previous decades, the challenges that the interim force faces, and what the Lebanese security landscape may look like going forward.

Gendering Geopolitics: Peacebuilding Through Ancestral Wisdom

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 10:00:12 +0000

In this episode of Gendering Geopolitics, New Lines Associate Analyst Amari Jones sits down with Nyamal Tutdeal, a globally recognized South Sudanese-Ethiopian-American peace architect who has transformed conflict into healing through her blend of academic excellence and ancestral wisdom. Together, they explore the intersection of identity, power, and peacebuilding, and how Nyamal’s unique approach is reshaping global security and the role of women in post-conflict societies.

Global Hotspots: Iran Faces European Nuclear Snapback Sanctions

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 15:59:53 +0000

This week in the Middle East, France, Germany, and the U.K. triggered a mechanism to reimpose sanctions against Iran following Tehran’s noncompliance with nuclear inspections, while Israel intensified shelling in Gaza City ahead of its anticipated occupation. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump played host to his South Korean counterpart at the White House, while Seoul called for strengthening ties with China. In Ukraine, Russian forces pushed farther into Ukrainian territory and continued their bombing campaign as the U.S. weighed security guarantees for Ukraine. U.S. tariffs of 50% on Indian imports went into effect, while Mexico announced plans to raise tariffs on China. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250829/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Lebanese Logic: Hezbollah On the Outs

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 10:00:38 +0000

In this episode of the Contours Lebanese Logic Podcast, host Faysal Itani sits down with Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dania Arayssi. Together, they discuss the recent effort by the Lebanese government and military to disarm Hezbollah, including how likely the effort is to succeed, and what the future landscape of power looks like in the country.

Between Autonomy and Authority: Syria’s New Power Balance After the SDF–Damascus Deal

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 10:00:18 +0000

In this episode of Strategic Crossroads, host Zara Farouk sits down with journalist and analyst Wladimir van Wilgenburg to unpack the landmark March agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government. Together they explore what this deal means for Kurdish self-rule, the future of gender parity in governance, and the mounting pressures on Syrian minority communities such as the Druze. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of New Lines Institute.

Global Hotspots: U.S. Coordinates Security Guarantees for Ukraine with Europe

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 14:12:51 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump held meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and key European leaders to advance a peace deal with Russia, while Russian attacks continued across Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travelled to India for trade talks as bilateral relations thawed, while Trump threatened to impose tariffs on semiconductor imports within the coming week. In the Middle East, Israeli forces captured the outskirts of Gaza City as the campaign to fully occupy the city began, while Iran held its first naval drills since its June war with Israel. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250822/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: All Eyes on Trump-Putin Meeting in Alaska

Fri, 15 Aug 2025 15:17:53 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump prepared for his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, holding calls with European leaders, and warning that Russia may face severe consequences if negotiations falter. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China have agreed to extend the deadline for the mutual reimposition of tariffs by another 90 days as negotiations continue. Beijing has insisted the talks must address U.S. removal of advanced tech export controls. In the Middle East, Israel continued preparations to launch a campaign to occupy Gaza while Iran expressed willingness to consider resuming nuclear negotiations with the U.S. under certain conditions. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250815/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump to Meet Putin Next Week; U.S. Global Tariffs Take Effect

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 14:00:23 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose strong economic sanctions against Russia ahead of an expected meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the Middle East, Israel’s State Security Cabinet approved a plan by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to occupy the whole of the Gaza Strip, while the U.S. is set to take over aid operations in the territory. In the Indo-Pacific, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for its purchases of Russian oil, while Thailand and Cambodia signed a ceasefire deal. In global trade, reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners went into effect, with threats of additional tariffs remaining on several key partners, including the European Union. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250808/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Bridging the Gap: Palestinian Christians - A Dwindling Community in the Holy Land

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 10:00:16 +0000

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap Podcast, Rachel Nelson sits down with Shadin Nassar and Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff from the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America to discuss the impacts of Israel’s occupation and settlement enterprise on Palestinian Christians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and how that has contributed to the exodus of the community from the region.

Global Hotspots: U.S. Trade Deadline Takes Center Stage

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:30:41 +0000

This week, several countries, including Canada, India, and other major economies, continued to negotiate with the U.S. ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline to make a trade deal, as the European Union and Asian nations including South Korea reached agreements. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with a Chinese delegation in Stockholm, where both sides agreed to extend bilateral trade negotiations. In the Middle East, several countries have announced they would recognize Palestine as a state in the upcoming U.N. General Assembly in September, while the U.S. imposed additional sanctions targeting Iran. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump reduced the timeline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire from 50 to 10 days, while the Ukrainian parliament passed legislation restoring the independence of anti-corruption bodies after facing international and domestic backlash. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250801/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Strikes Trade Deals With Japan and Philippines

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 15:04:19 +0000

This week, the United States approved a new weapons package for Ukraine, while representatives from Russian and Ukraine agreed to a new round of prisoner exchanges. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. signed new trade deals with Japan and the Philippines, while EU representatives met with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid simmering trade tensions. In the Middle East, EU and Iranian officials discussed recent sanctions threats against Tehran, while U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to discuss the release of hostages from Hamas. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=27490&action=edit Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump Threatens Russia With Sanctions; Israel-Syria Clashes Intensify

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 14:48:56 +0000

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it does not engage in ceasefire talks with Ukraine, while U.S. officials met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv to discuss the delivery of U.S. weapons. In the Indo-Pacific, Australia and China hailed a reset in their trade relations following Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and details emerged of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s planned visit to Paraguay next month, which may include a stop in the United States. In the Middle East, Israeli strikes targeted the Syrian Ministry of Defense, while the Iranian parliament issued a statement against resuming nuclear talks with the U.S. until unspecified conditions are met. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250718/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Iran and Gaza Tensions Linger; U.S. Threatens New Global Tariffs

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 14:41:41 +0000

This week in the Middle East, Iran questioned cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and reportedly received a delivery of Chinese air defense systems, while Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz unveiled plans to relocate Gazans to third countries. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed frustration at Russia’s lack of meaningful ceasefire efforts and renewed U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine, while both the U.S. Congress and the EU are preparing new sanctions against Moscow. In the Indo-Pacific, Trump renewed his threats of tariffs against ASEAN countries, plus Japan and South Korea. He further threatened to levy additional tariffs against Brazil and on all copper exports to the U.S. and extended the deadline for all trade negotiations to Aug. 1. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250711/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Q3 Forecast Outlook

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 13:55:29 +0000

The third quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the ripple effects of military escalation between Israel and Iran, as well as U.S. intervention, while regional states will seek to push for a diplomatic agreement over Iran’s nuclear program. Read the full Q3 Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q3-2025-forecast/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Weighs Direct Involvement in Israel/Iran Conflict

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 14:58:45 +0000

This week, Israel escalated its military campaign against Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, while the U.S. weighed potential involvement in the conflict. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan added Chinese companies to its export blacklist, limiting their access to advanced microchips, while concerns lingered over the impact of Chinese rare earth elements export curbs despite last week’s U.S./China trade agreement. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian operations halted Russian advances on Sumy, while leaders of the G7 discussed new sanctions against Russia. Read the Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-202506020/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Israel and Iran at War: The Risk of Escalation and Regional Implications

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 18:53:51 +0000

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap, New Lines Middle East Analyst Rachel Nelson sits down with New Lines Senior Director Dr. Kamran Bokhari and New Lines Director of the Crime-Conflict Nexus and Military Withdrawals portfolios Caroline Rose to discuss the breakout of war between Israel and Iran and its regional implications.

Global Hotspots: Israel Conducts Military Strikes on Iran

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:53:39 +0000

This week in the Middle East, Israel carried out unilateral strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and killed top Iranian military officials, leading to Iranian retaliation with drone strikes against Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China both confirmed they reached a trade deal framework involving a resumption of rare earth elements exports and a reduction in tariffs, while newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung conducted diplomatic outreach to the U.S. and China. In Ukraine, Russia launched some of the most extensive missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities since the start of the war, while the European Commission proposed a new round of sanctions against Moscow. In the U.S., the National Guard and Marines were deployed to Los Angeles amid ongoing protests over an immigration crackdown. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-202506013/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

It’s Sharaa’s Syria Now

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 10:00:23 +0000

In this edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad podcast series, New Lines Senior Director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Senior Resident Fellow Murad Batal Shishani to analyze the opportunities and challenges for Syria after President Donald Trump’s meeting with interim Syrian President Ahmad Al Sharaa. Shishani also provides a detailed debrief on his recent trip to Syria; assesses the progress of post-Assad Syrian society, politics, and security dynamics; and explains where Sharaa might take Syria next.

Global Hotspots: Ukrainian Saboteurs Hit Russia; Global Alarm at China’s Mineral Controls

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 14:12:44 +0000

This week, Ukraine conducted multiple sabotage operations across Russia, including attacks on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet and infrastructure, while representatives from both countries agreed on a prisoner exchange. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s slow resumption of rare earth elements exports has led industries to warn of potential shutdowns. U.S.-China trade negotiations continued, and the U.S. doubled tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports. In the Middle East, Iran rejected U.S. terms for a nuclear deal, while Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to assist in negotiations during a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250606/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump Tariffs Challenged in Court; U.S.-China Tensions Intensify

Fri, 30 May 2025 15:00:46 +0000

This week, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that there was no legal basis under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act for U.S. President Donald Trump to impose global tariffs, complicating the U.S.’s trade negotiations. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced of the U.S. would begin revoking Chinese student visas, while Trump ordered the suspension of exports of jet engines and semiconductors to China. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia prepared for an offensive in Sumy, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed another meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials on June 2. In the Middle East, efforts at another Gaza ceasefire stalled, while the U.S. and Iran continued their nuclear negotiations over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250530/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

India and Israel: Parallel Occupations and Strategic Alliances

Thu, 29 May 2025 10:00:26 +0000

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast, host Rachel Nelson sits down with Zara Farouk, a Middle East analyst at New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, to discuss the recent escalation of hostilities between India and Pakistan, the past and present relationship between India and Israel, and the similarities of India's and Israel’s occupations in Kashmir and the occupied Palestinian territories.

Global Hotspots: Israel Faces Growing Pressure Over Gaza Offensive

Fri, 23 May 2025 14:07:38 +0000

This week, Israel intensified its military campaign in Gaza as the U.K., EU, and Canada threatened economic restrictions against Israel. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the EU and U.K. issued new sanctions against Russia, while U.S. President Donald Trump announced the U.S. would scale back mediation efforts following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the Indo-Pacific, the EU proposed tariffs on China in alignment with Washington, while China expressed disapproval of U.S. plans to build a new missile defense system and to ban the use of Chinese microchips in the U.S. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250523/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Supporting Lebanon: Navigating Hezbollah and Corruption

Thu, 22 May 2025 10:00:21 +0000

In this episode of New Lines Institute’s "Lebanese Logic" podcast, Resident Senior Fellow Faysal Itani and Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dania Arayssi discuss ways the United States can support Lebanon’s people and institutions without giving Hezbollah and the country’s corrupt oligarchy a boost.

Global Hotspots: Trump Tours the Middle East, Announces Syria Sanctions Relief

Fri, 16 May 2025 15:30:01 +0000

On his diplomatic tour of the Middle East’s Gulf region this week, President Donald Trump announced the U.S. will lift sanctions against Syria. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, meanwhile, presented Iran with a written proposal for a nuclear deal. Russian President Vladimir Putin did not show up to planned negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Istanbul, though diplomacy was held among officials from Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., and Türkiye. The U.S. and China agreed to pause reciprocal tariffs for 90 days and remove key export and import bans as trade negotiations progress, and China pledged increased investment to Latin American countries. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250516/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: India-Pakistan Conflict Escalates; Putin and Xi Commemorate Victory Day

Fri, 09 May 2025 15:30:05 +0000

This week, the conflict between India and Pakistan escalated with India launching multiple military strikes against its neighbor. Meanwhile, the U.S. agreed to hold high-level trade talks with China for the first time this weekend in Geneva. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping for Moscow’s Victory Day parade, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed establishing a demilitarized zone between Russia and Ukraine. In the Middle East, the U.S. agreed to a cease-fire with Yemen’s al-Houthi forces after a successful mediation by Oman as it plans to continue nuclear negotiations with Iran this weekend. Israel called up reservists to prepare for its incursion into Gaza. The U.K. was the first country to conclude a trade deal with the U.S., securing a reduction in tariffs on the hardest hit sectors of steel and cars. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250509/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. and Ukraine Sign Minerals Deal; India-Pakistan Tensions Flare

Fri, 02 May 2025 14:42:49 +0000

This week, the U.S. and Ukraine signed a critical minerals deal after months of tense negotiations, while Russia proposed a ceasefire from May 8 to 10. In the Indo-Pacific, effects of the U.S.-China trade dispute are being felt across export sectors, while Pakistan warned of imminent attacks from India following last week’s mass shooting in Kashmir. In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran are set to continue nuclear negotiations following recent progress in talks, while British and American forces launched new airstrikes against al-Houthi rebel targets in Yemen. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250502/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Acts of Terrorism by Israeli Settlers Are Intensifying in the West Bank

Thu, 01 May 2025 10:00:56 +0000

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast series, New Lines’ own Rachel Nelson hosts Andrey X, an independent reporter and human rights advocate documenting Israeli settler violence in the West Bank. Together, they discuss Andrey’s own move from Russia to live in Palestine, the developing volatile situation for Palestinians in the West Bank, and how the international community can respond to the crisis.

Global Hotspots: U.S. Makes Final Push For Ukraine Peace Deal

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 15:08:35 +0000

This week, the U.S. submitted a proposal to end the war in Ukraine that was swiftly rejected by Kyiv, and the Russian military continued its bombardment of Ukrainian cities. In the Indo-Pacific, Beijing denied assertions by the Trump administration that trade negotiations were ongoing, calling for the U.S. to remove its tariffs first, while South Korean companies were warned by Beijing not to sell products containing Chinese critical materials to the United States. In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran agreed to continue nuclear negotiations following last weekend’s meeting, while Egypt and Qatar presented a plan for a five-year truce for the war in Gaza, as Israeli operations continued in the territory. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250425/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Is A Post-Hezbollah Lebanon Happening Now?

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 10:00:40 +0000

The Middle East Center at The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy is launching a new podcast series, “Lebanese Logic,” hosted by the center’s Resident Senior Fellow Faysal Itani. The series focuses on Lebanon’s political dynamics the future of Hezbollah, and important role in the geopolitics of the Middle East. In this inaugural episode, Itani and New Lines Institute Senior Director Nicholas A. Heras forecast Lebanon’s politics and foreign policy in the context of the rapidly shifting regional developments in the Middle East.

Global Hotspots: China Pushes Back Against U.S. Tariffs; U.S.-Iran Negotiations Pick Up

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 15:18:13 +0000

This week, global trade tensions and market uncertainty persisted despite the U.S. pause on reciprocal tariffs, while a first round of targeted countries reached out to Washington. In the Indo-Pacific, Chinese President Xi Jinping embarked on a multistage tour of Southeast Asia, signing cooperation deals with the leaders of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Bilateral trade escalations continued with the U.S., which imposed new sanctions on China. In the Middle East, U.S. and Iranian officials continued direct negotiations on a nuclear deal, and Israel announced its troops would remain in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria “indefinitely.” U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials met in Paris to discuss ongoing peace efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the U.S. extended sanctions on Russian ships and Russia continued bombing Ukrainian cities. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250418/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump Pauses Global Reciprocal Tariffs, Except for China

Fri, 11 Apr 2025 14:00:15 +0000

This week, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement sent global markets tumbling, he announced a 90-day pause on the levies for countries that did not retaliate, reducing tariffs to 10% for all imports. The U.S., however, increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting China to raise its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% and to engage in strong outreach to the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Australia. In Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian forces launched new offensives while officials from the U.S. and Russia met in Istanbul for normalization talks and separately conducted a prisoner swap. In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran agreed to conduct a first round of negotiations Saturday in Oman on a nuclear deal, while Israel and Türkiye discussed deconfliction of their operations in Syria. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250411/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump Announces Global Tariffs; U.S. Threatens Iran

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This week, President Donald Trump’s unveiling of reciprocal tariffs, including ones targeting China, Taiwan, the EU, and Southeast Asia, sent global markets falling and drew strong worldwide condemnation. Washington expressed frustration at Moscow’s unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine, as both Congress and the White House proposed sanctions and tariffs against Russia. In the Middle East, Israel deployed additional troops to Gaza, while the U.S. deployed a second aircraft carrier near Iran and renewed its threats to bomb Iran if it refuses to discuss a nuclear deal. In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan and struck an agreement to deepen economic ties with South Korea and Japan.

Global Hotspots: Q2 2025 Forecast

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The second quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the reverberations of U.S. policy shifts initiated by President Donald Trump’s administration in the first quarter, primarily related to global trade issues and its changing posture to hotspots around the world. Read the full 2025 Q2 Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q2-2025-forecast/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Gaza Ceasefire Breaks Down; U.S. Targets Houthis

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This week, the Hamas/Israel ceasefire collapsed after Israeli forces launched an air and ground assault in Gaza, while the U.S. Navy engaged al-Houthi targets in Yemen. Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure, while Russian missile and drone attacks continued across Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, reports emerged that the U.S. Department of Energy designated South Korea as a “sensitive country,” potentially hindering its technology cooperation with the U.S., while the Trump administration tightened sanctions against Chinese importers of Iranian oil. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250321/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. to Resume Aid to Ukraine; China’s Retaliatory Tariffs Take Effect

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This week, the U.S. agreed to a resumption of Ukrainian military and intelligence aid as a 30-day cease-fire was discussed with Ukraine and Russia. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. went into effect, and the Taiwanese government announced a series of measures designed to curb Chinese espionage and influence operations. In the Middle East, the U.S. pushed for an extension of Phase I negotiations between Israel and Gaza, while Israeli and Lebanese officials began discussions over the normalization of bilateral relations. In global trade, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports, prompting strong reactions and announcements of retaliation from Canada and the EU. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250314/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

French Withdrawal and the Security Landscape of the Sahel

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

In this episode of the Contours podcast, host Caroline Rose and Tammy Palacios, senior analyst of New Lines' Priority Sustainable Counterterrorism portfolio, to discuss the history of the French involvement in the Sahel, the security implications of the French departure from the region, and how it affects U.S. security.

Global Hotspots: Europe Reacts to US/Ukraine Fallout; Trump Ramps Up Global Tariffs

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This week, the United States suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, while European leaders proposed initiatives on Ukrainian and European security. In the Indo-Pacific, China announced it will impose retaliatory tariffs of 15% on key U.S. agricultural imports, and Taiwan announced it will increase its investment in the U.S. semiconductor industry. In the Middle East, Israel cut off humanitarian aid into Gaza, while the U.S. and Arab states contended over a Gaza reconstruction plan. President Donald Trump imposed his previously delayed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico before making exemptions for car imports following a steep drop in the U.S. stock market. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250307/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy | Podcasts

Global Hotspots: The Mecca Pact and a New Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan Bloc

Global Hotspots: Exploring the possibility of Hamas disarmament

Global Hotspots: Examining the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal with Shahad Turkistani

Global Hotspots: Unpacking the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal and the ASEAN summit

Global Hotspots Outlook: US and Iran Conflict Re-escalates

Global Hotspots: Q3 Forecast - Bolivia, Sahel, Sudan, Morocco, DRC

Global Hotspots: Q3 Forecast - Americas, Middle East, Indo-Pacific, and Russia/Ukraine

Global Hotspots: Iran Ceasefire Update and Ukraine's Ultimatum to Belarus

Global Hotspots: Unpacking the U.S./Iran Ceasefire Deal

Contours: Gender Policy Podcast, Women and Power

Global Hotspots: Strait of Hormuz Closed; Ethiopian Elections Impact

Global Hotspots: Trump Confirms Netanyahu Quarrel; Ukraine Hits St. Petersburg

Global Hotspots: U.S.-Cuba Tensions Simmer as Tech Takes Center Stage in Indo-Pacific

How Do We Measure Illicit Economies? | Crime Beat Conversations featuring Henry Ziemer

Global Hotspots: Putin Meets Xi in Beijing and a new Ebola Strain in DRC

Global Hotspots: Trump Meets Xi in Beijing

Global Hotspots: U.S. Peace Proposal for Iran, and Troop Withdrawal from Germany

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. Sanctions China over Iran

Global Hotspots: Outlook on the U.S.-Iran Ceasefire and Japanese Force Posturing

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. Blockades Iran Amid Renewed Diplomacy

Global Hotspots Outlook: US and Iran Reach Tenuous Ceasefire

Contours: Gender Policy Podcast, Women and War in Ukraine

Crime Beat Conversations: China-Cartel Nexus, Featuring Adam Rousselle

Global Hotspots: 2026 Q2 Forecast (Part 2)

Global Hotspots: 2026 Q2 Forecast (Part 1)

Global Hotspots: The U.S. and Iran trade diplomatic offers as military strikes continue

Global Hotspots Outlook: Energy and Economic Disruptions Grow Amid Iran Conflict

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S./Iran War Disrupts Global Energy Markets

Global Hotspots Outlook: War between U.S., Israel, and Iran Goes Global

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. and Iran Meet Amid Military Buildup

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. Gears Up for Iran Military Operations ​

Crime Beat Conversations: Mexican Cartel Splits and Alliances, Featuring Stefano Ritondale

Global Hotspots Outlook: Japan's Takaichi Secures Election Victory

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. and Iran Hold Talks Amid Rising Tensions

Global Hotspots Outlook: Trump Considers Iran Strikes

Global Hotspots: At Davos, Trump Walks Back Greenland Threats

Global Hotspots: U.S. Pressures Iran on Protests; Greenland Diplomacy Ramps Up

Global Hotspots: U.S.-Venezuela Intervention and Worldwide Ripple Effects

Armenia-Azerbaijan Diplomacy and Regional Connectivity Implications, Part 2

Armenia-Azerbaijan Diplomacy and Regional Connectivity Implications, Part 1

Global Hotspots: Review and Forecast of Venezuela, DRC, Sudan, and Gen Z Protests

Global Hotspots: 2026 Annual Forecast

Global Hotspots: 2025 in Review

The Unfinished Revolution: Syria’s Past and Future, 1 Year After Assad

Global Hotspots: U.S. Ramps Up Diplomacy on Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Global Hotspots: Trump Meets with Saudi Crown Prince to Sign New Bilateral Deal

Antisemitism and Anti-Zionism: Untangling the Conflation

Global Hotspots: U.S.-Syria Diplomacy Progresses Amid Middle East Turbulence

Global Hotspots: U.S. Pushes Postwar Plan for Gaza

What the PKK Ceasefire Means for Türkiye’s Kurds

Global Hotspots: U.S. Reaches Deals With China, Indo-Pacific States in Asia Summits

Global Hotspots: U.S. and EU Sanction Russia Amid Diplomatic Setbacks

Global Hotspots: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Faces Challenges

U.S.-Based Charities are Funding Israeli Settlements

Global Hotspots: Israel and Hamas Reach Ceasefire Deal

Global Hotspots: U.S. Launches New Peace Proposal for Israel-Gaza War

Global Hotspots: Q4 Forecast Outlook

Why Did the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan Fail?

Global Hotspots: Israel Faces Diplomatic Fallout Amid Gaza City Offensive

Inside the State Department: U.S. Policy on Israel and Palestine and the Future of Middle East Peace

Global Hotspots: Israel Strikes Hamas in Qatar; Russian Drones Shot Down in Poland

A Gendered Analysis of Aggression and International Law

Global Hotspots: China Highlights Ties with Russia and North Korea at Key Summits

The Withdrawal of UNIFIL from Lebanon

Gendering Geopolitics: Peacebuilding Through Ancestral Wisdom

Global Hotspots: Iran Faces European Nuclear Snapback Sanctions

Lebanese Logic: Hezbollah On the Outs

Between Autonomy and Authority: Syria’s New Power Balance After the SDF–Damascus Deal

Global Hotspots: U.S. Coordinates Security Guarantees for Ukraine with Europe

Global Hotspots: All Eyes on Trump-Putin Meeting in Alaska

Global Hotspots: Trump to Meet Putin Next Week; U.S. Global Tariffs Take Effect

Bridging the Gap: Palestinian Christians - A Dwindling Community in the Holy Land

Global Hotspots: U.S. Trade Deadline Takes Center Stage

Global Hotspots: U.S. Strikes Trade Deals With Japan and Philippines

Global Hotspots: Trump Threatens Russia With Sanctions; Israel-Syria Clashes Intensify

Global Hotspots: Iran and Gaza Tensions Linger; U.S. Threatens New Global Tariffs

Global Hotspots: Q3 Forecast Outlook

Global Hotspots: U.S. Weighs Direct Involvement in Israel/Iran Conflict

Israel and Iran at War: The Risk of Escalation and Regional Implications

Global Hotspots Outlook: U.S. Gears Up for Iran Military Operations