McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Corn sweeteners outlook for 2027

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:36:25 -0600

Corn crop in the ground on time
- Will it lose acres to soybeans?
Entering a high-demand period
- Will the upcoming World Cup provide a spike in HFCS use?
Next week: Ingredion must announce its intention to make a formal bid for Tate & Lyle
Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
- Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Invites rolling out soon!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

The Grim Reaper speaks! (on soybean & palm oil markets)

Fri, 29 May 2026 12:14:46 -0600

Looking toward the “futures” and determining “good value”
- Soybean oil futures market evolution since the start of the Iran war
  - What happened in deferred contracts?
Is palm oil next?
- Comparing the last strong El Niño event against an impending one
- A look at pricing dynamics for Malaysian palm oil futures (BMD exchange)
Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit iq.mckeany-flavell.com to learn more!
- Commodity dashboards
- Dynamic data & interactive charts
- Analytics & calculators
- Price forecasts
- Downloadable data, charts, and tables
Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
- Wed., Jun 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Invites rolling out soon!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Sugar planting progress updates + LIVE from the Sweets & Snacks Expo!

Fri, 22 May 2026 11:13:32 -0600

Sugar
- Beet crop progress is a mixed bag but still optimistic for a good crop
- Cane production appears to be progressing well despite winter freeze
Sweets & Snacks Expo
- Who attended this year?
- Flavors and promotions seen on the floor
  - Nostalgic brands and lots of sour!
- What was Mike’s favorite candy?
Save the date for our next webinar!
- Seasonal Market Outlook
- Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Invites rolling out soon!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Current factors impacting the cocoa & chocolate market

Fri, 15 May 2026 11:22:44 -0600

Forecasted Super El Niño and its effect on cocoa
- Expect dry conditions: Is it already occurring?
High fertilizer prices and how they will impact 2026/27 production
Chocolate manufacturers heeding the demand of consumers
- What are some alternatives for cocoa content?
Don’t miss next week’s webinar!
- Wheat Market Update
- Wed., May 20, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

May WASDE: First look at 2026/27 crop year!

Tue, 12 May 2026 13:57:48 -0600

Wheat
- Wow! goes the WASDE for wheat
  - USDA gives bullish outlook
- Another wow!
  - Hard red winter wheat production down 36% YOY
- 2026/27 ending stocks projected down sharply
Corn & soy complex
- 2025/26 changes relatively nominal
- Corn stocks to tighten in 2026/27
- New crop soybean and soybean oil balance sheets show more of the same (in some regards)
Sugar
- 2025/26 ending stocks up on higher imports
- 2026/27 sugar production forecast to fall, with beet down how much?
- U.S. sugar beet plantings slow, but improving in the last week
Our next webinar: Wheat Market Update
- Wed., May 20, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Discussing consumer trends with Sarah Muller of Jogue

Fri, 08 May 2026 14:18:26 -0600

How to build a product for the long term in the GLP-1 space
How to market to Gen Z and Millennials
Combating “wellness fatigue” as a brand with a case study
See Sarah at Sweets & Snacks Expo, Supplier Showcase, May 18 at 2pm
Our next webinar: Wheat Market Update
- Wed., May 20, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com
Happy Mother’s Day!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Sarah Muller, Senior Director of Global Flavor Solutions at Jogue

Sugar beet plantings update: A mixed bag through April

Fri, 01 May 2026 12:49:51 -0600

Planting progress:
- Idaho is 83% planted, well ahead of normal
- Plains region looking average
- Red River Valley and Michigan, slow to start
  - What’s the reason?
Latest update on the Farm Bill
- Clarity for farmers?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Energy & economy update: More on the critical inflection point

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 12:00:58 -0600

Ceasefire talks back on in Pakistan
Is WTI crude oil stabilizing?
What’s the Fed’s next move?
Clients favoring risk aversion
Did you miss our U.S. Economy Update Webinar: Critical Inflection Point on Wednesday?
- Watch now on our IQ platform!
- Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Edible oil markets down, hooray!

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 11:50:01 -0600

News of transit through the Strait of Hormuz collapses crude oil futures
Spillover effect pressuring soybean and palm oil futures
What’s the timeline for a return to “normal” markets?
A quick review of the current fundamentals
Our next webinar: U.S. Economy Update Webinar
- Wed., April 22, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

April WASDE & summer is approaching!

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:57 -0600

Sugar
- Higher sugar imports leads to offsetting higher deliveries
- Stocks-to use ratio left unchanged
Wheat
- U.S. and wheat global stocks rise, leading to a neutral to bearish April WASDE
- Expect more changes in the May WASDE to food and export demand, and new-crop 2026/27 first looks
Corn & soy complex
- U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged, global ending stocks improve
- Soybean supplies remain adequate in the U.S., ample globally
- More food use of soybean oil? What will be the real stocks level for U.S. soybean oil?
Our next webinar: U.S. Economy Update Webinar
- Wed., April 22, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Weather & the jobs market

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 11:48:28 -0600

Weather
- Winter wheat relief ahead?
  - Potential for rains that are desperately needed
- 65% of U.S. winter wheat in drought conditions: Highest since 2022
Jobs
- Headline jobs data beats expectations
- Wage growth is easily outpacing inflation
- Underlying long-term trends are still concerning
Save the date for our next webinar!
- Economy Update Webinar
- Wed., April 22, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Invites to be out soon

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Taking the over or the under? USDA releases Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings reports

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:17:43 -0600

Corn & soy complex
- Corn and soybean acres fall within acreage expectations, but what will the numbers actually look like by late June?
- Stocks seem adequate for both corn and soybeans
  - The difference maker will be where those stocks reside
Wheat
- Not the best fundamental news for wheat buyers
  - All wheat acres forecasted at an all-time low of 43.8 million acres
- 2026/27 production decline risk is very likely with fewer acres, and the hard red winter wheat crop is currently dealing with a weather issue
- Ending stocks up 5%: Deficit risk in the long term?
Sugar
- Beet sugar area down 1.5%

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

Sugar: Mayhem is everywhere

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:56:59 -0600

Forfeitures or no forfeitures is a big question
- Nearly 1.0 billion lbs of sugar under loan in Idaho
- Is that a real threat?
March planting intentions coming out on Tuesday
- What to expect: Slight decline compared to last year?
Did you miss our Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar on Wednesday?
- Watch now on our IQ platform!
- Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more!

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Latest updates on weather, war, wheat, economy, & inflation

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 12:29:14 -0600

W.W.W.
- Weather + War + Wheat = volatility!
- Current conditions for winter wheat are growing concerning
  - Some better hope for rain in April?
W.E.I.
- War + Energy + Inflation = economic chaos!
- Iran waging economic war via energy
- Inflation expectations are rising
- Most Fed members now see the funds rate unchanged for 2026
- Commodity buyers should be vigilant on near-term coverage
Don’t miss our webinar next week!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead
- Wed., March 25, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Energy update on a perfectly timed Friday the 13th

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 10:32:06 -0600

Iran’s nuclear option is the Strait of Hormuz
Emergency oil release reaction was muted
Risk remains highly elevated
Be proactive about adding soybean oil coverage
Our next webinar is fast approaching!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead
  Wed., March 25, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

March WASDE: Few changes but pay attention

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 14:10:08 -0600

Corn & soy complex
- U.S. soy and corn balance sheets relatively unchanged
- Interesting changes to U.S. soybean oil consumption
Wheat
- No changes in U.S. balance sheet
- Should USDA have increased exports?
- Attention shifting to new crop 2026/27 with 2025/26 set in stone
Sugar
- Florida cane production lowered from early February freeze
- High-tier imports increased
Our next webinar is fast approaching!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead
- Wed., March 25, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Latest consumer trends weighing on the food & beverage space

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 14:40:39 -0600

New MAHA food pyramid could lead to changing consumption
GLP-1 and weight management drugs grow in usage
What’s a food and/or beverage manufacturer to do in this environment?
Save the date for our next webinar!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead
- Wed., March 25, 2026
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

Recap of the 2026 International Sweetener Colloquium

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 09:40:04 -0600

Held in beautiful Championsgate, FL: How was the weather?
Demand for sugar and sweeteners pressured from growing GLP-1 use and SNAP restrictions
Tariffs are off and then back on again?
2027 negotiations appear to be in no hurry

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Market updates amid today's Supreme Court ruling

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 14:07:10 -0600

Wheat
- Wheat is worth watching now: futures rallying to six-month highs
- Long-term bearish outlook still most likely
Sugar
- Sugar forfeiture risk and product reformulations will be two non-traditional drivers for the 2027 market
Soy complex
- Trade and profitability: soybean supply and consumption may hinge on those factors
- Energy markets, be it biofuel or crude oil, soybean oil prices are at the mercy of energy markets, domestic politics, and the geopolitical environment
Corn
- Corn acreage and consumption: lower YOY acreage (with likely good carry-in for 2026/27) against feed consumption now, ethanol consumption later

Host/Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

"Be mine" for a Valentine's Cocoa market update

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 13:36:28 -0600

World demand down
How’s the weather looking for the mid-crop season?
- What about surplus?
What’s the recent news from Ghana?
- Arrival numbers have been hard to come by; now we know why!
Current market price and recommendations for coverage going forward
Happy Valentine’s Day!

Host: Eric Thornton, VP
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

February WASDE: How typical for this time of year?

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 13:21:19 -0600

Sugar
- Louisiana record cane crop boosted
- USDA cleans up 2024/25 delivery figures
Wheat
- Changes minimal (as expected) for wheat
- Small decrease to food demand bumps up ending stocks
  - Could we reach 1 billion bushels in ending stocks for new crop 2026/27?
Corn & soy complex
- U.S. corn balance sheet showing slightly lower ending stocks; still neutral to bearish
- Nothing new and enlightening for soybeans or soybean oil, in the U.S. anyway

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Risks shaping the plastic resin market in 2026 with RTi Global

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 15:04:56 -0600

Why 2026 feels fundamentally different from prior resin cycles
How polyethylene supply discipline and inventory management are driving price behavior
The growing disconnect between resin indices and real transaction pricing
Nonmarket adjustments and why they create confusion—and risk—for buyers
What resin buyers should actually be watching right now

Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Guest Expert: Michael Workman, Growth Director at ResinSmart by RTi Global
Guest Expert: Kevin Mekaru, Senior Business Unit Lead, Commodity Plastic Resin, RTi Global
www.resinsmart.ai

A big week for the Federal Reserve & future monetary policy

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 12:48:21 -0600

Fed leaves rates unchanged as expected
Powell says the levels of uncertainty around employment and inflation have diminished
Trump taps Kevin Warsh to head the Fed next
PPI inflation comes in a little hot

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

What to expect at next week’s ASGA conference

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 13:23:17 -0600

ASGA is celebrating 50 years of excellence!
- What will be discussed?
Farm incomes dropping
- Imperative to get beet payments up for the 2026/27 crop year
Sugar growers going through generational change
- Need to support young farmers of America
Is the rebound in beet sugar deliveries sustainable?
Did you miss our Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar on Wednesday?
- Watch now on our IQ platform!
- Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Diving deep into wheat reports

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 13:43:20 -0600

Winter Wheat Seedings report
Current look at winter wheat conditions and weather
U.S. exports capped at 900 million bushels?
Recommendations for strategy and coverage
Join us next Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year!
- Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

January WASDE: Corn puts on a show!

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 14:45:44 -0600

Corn & soy complex
- Bearish surprise for U.S. corn via production
- Soybean ending stocks higher as a result of paltry export demand
- What gives with U.S. soybean oil stocks?
Sugar
- Louisiana cane production forecast breaks record!
- Sugar deliveries forecast to drop, but by how much?
Wheat
- Catch up with wheat S&D on this Friday’s pod!
Join us Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year!
- Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

U.S. economy & weather: Passing grades (for now)

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 13:29:16 -0600

Economy
- Lackluster headline jobs growth with revisions lower
- Unemployment rate reverses recent uptick
- Fed still eyes 50-basis-point rate cuts this year
Weather
- NOAA’s latest forecast reveals a potential El Niño in H2 2026?
  - What crops could be affected?
- Current conditions in the U.S. have been drier due to the weak La Niña weather pattern
Join us on Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year!
- Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

Our predictions for 2026: On your mark, get set, go!

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 09:56:36 -0600

Corn wet milling
- Investments made will impact availability of liquid sweeteners
Sugar
- World sugar stays under 17 cents per lb
- Brazil: Another monster crop
- STU goes up: 18% by summer
- More forfeitures during the summer months
Wheat
- U.S. acreage at an all-time low
- Global production output to be more like last year’s than this year’s output (800 MMT vs. 837 MMT)
Soy complex & edible oils
- Resurgence in biofuel production
- Conventional canola oil is the least expensive option for a good chunk of 2026
- Impact of weight management drugs continues
- Anti-seed oil trend to pick up traction
Economy & energy
- Three rate cuts during 2026: 2.75% to 3.00%
- CPI: 2.6% for 2026
- Inflation likely to tick up by year's end
- Crude oil: $55 to $56 a barrel
Happy New Year!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

'Twas the week before Christmas...

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 15:45:42 -0600

...and Nicole's got the mic, rhyming her way through a poem that is sure to be liked.

Happy holidays from McKeany-Flavell!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Soybean oil: A wild ride in 2025! What's next for 2026?

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 15:10:17 -0600

Soybean oil futures
- Why do we keep coming back to the same spot?
Soybean oil in biofuels
- A combo of the known and unknown
Food consumption
- Consumer trends of all forms to drive demand
- GLP-1s: A fad or here to stay?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

December WASDE: The last one for 2025 & USDA punts!

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 14:03:05 -0600

USDA punts any U.S. production changes to January
Expect more volatility and market attention next month
Corn
- The only change? Increase to exports
Soy complex
- No changes to the U.S. soybean balance sheet
Wheat
- Ditto for U.S. wheat balance sheet: No changes
- Global wheat production rose further
  - Now a 5% increase vs. 2024/25
Sugar
- Beet sugar production lowered, while cane increased

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, VP
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Around the world (sugar) in 16 minutes!

Fri, 05 Dec 2025 14:00:26 -0600

Ethanol from corn and high sugar share increasing Brazil production in 2024/25
Global surplus pressuring world # 11 sugar prices
When will low prices impact production?
Missed Wednesday’s webinar on Systematic Timing Models?
- Watch now on our IQ platform!
- Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Potential market movers for the balance of 2025

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 12:12:16 -0600

FOMC decision on Dec. 10
Crude oil production vs. demand
Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs
Dec. 9 WASDE
Next Wednesday is our last webinar of 2025!
- Procurement Timing Models: Taking the Emotion Out of Procurement
- Wed., December 3, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com
Happy Thanksgiving!

Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, VP
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

What's ahead for the sugar market in 2026

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 13:34:01 -0600

Will the closure of refining cause some regional tightness?
Burdensome inventories for both beet and cane
- Will it keep pressure on prices?
The International Sweetener Colloquium is now on the radar!
- Come prepared to talk 2027
Mark your calendars for our next webinar!
- Procurement Timing Models: Taking the Emotion Out of Procurement
- Wed., December 3, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up for both now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

November WASDE: It’s back!

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 15:34:33 -0600

Corn
- Downward revision to usage for feed and residual
Soy complex
- Soybean carry-in lowered a bit
- Most puzzling was soybean oil!
Wheat
- U.S. balance sheet as expected
  - Higher production boosts U.S. stocks
- Global wheat production increases galore!
Sugar
- Massive adjustments to sugar deliveries
- Both beet and cane production lowered

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, VP

The plastic pressure point: How resin markets are shaping 2026 procurement strategies

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:10:04 -0600

Q4 2025 snapshot of market conditions
Is market softness present?
Preparing for 2026 with budget considerations
Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more!
- Commodity dashboards
- Dynamic data & interactive charts
- Analytics & calculators
- Price forecasts
- Downloadable data, charts, and tables

What’s so spooky about soybeans & chocolate?

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 14:05:06 -0600

Soybeans
- Soybean prices “rise from the dead” to 15-month highs!
- China/U.S. trade announcements require careful analysis
  - How impactful in the short and long term?
Chocolate
- Halloween chocolate prices are up, up, up!
- Retail chains may be running some promos to try and get a lot of volume sold
  - Will they be successful?
Want to go more in depth on cocoa? Join us for next week’s webinar!
- Cocoa Market Update Webinar
- Wed., November 5, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com
Happy Halloween!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, VP
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

Corn sweetener negotiations on simmer…

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 08:53:54 -0600

Not much movement on price direction for 2026
Corn wet millers offering multiple solutions to manage coproducts
Product demand is still a concern going into negotiations
Two webinars back-to-back! Make sure to register for both!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
  - Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Cocoa Market Update Webinar
  - Wed., November 5, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up for both now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

What are markets focusing on without USDA data?

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 13:09:50 -0600

Corn
- Corn yield likely falling on disappointing harvest results thus far
- Record crop still expected north of 16 billion bushels
- Corn exports appear to remain strong; other categories remain to be seen
Wheat
- U.S. wheat production increases should boost ending stocks
- Could U.S. export demand surpass 900 million bushels?
- Winter wheat plantings about 65% complete
- Conditions improving in soft red winter wheat area
Soy complex
- Chinese soybean import demand could be hit or miss for the U.S., with or without a deal
- Domestic soybean oil consumption soft with potential for some export demand offset
Our next webinar is fast approaching!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
- Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

The October WASDE that wasn’t: A look at what might have been for sugar & corn

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 12:02:21 -0600

Big question: Will the government shutdown end in time for November WASDE?
Corn
- Corn carry-in up
- Yields down, but still a record
- Harvest acres lower?
- Future S&D risks: Feed and exports
Sugar
- Sugar production likely lower than September WASDE
- Will sugar deliveries decline for a second consecutive year?
Save the date for our next webinar!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
- Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Soy complex woes maybe everybody knows…

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 09:10:54 -0600

Soybean production could be lower than expected due to late-season weather dynamics
Soybean meal needs more homes
Soybean oil market ambiguity continues
Save the date for our next webinar!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
- Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Corn harvest sparks the beginning of 2026 corn wet milling negotiations

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 14:05:49 -0600

Corn futures may have already hit harvest lows
Feed demand picks up in December
- Could that support coproduct values through Q1 2026?
Key to wet milling contract negotiations:
- Understanding corn grind allocation
Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more!
- Commodity dashboards
- Dynamic data & interactive charts
- Analytics & calculators
- Price forecasts
- Downloadable data, charts, and tables
Save the date for our next webinar!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
- Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Weather outlook for fall 2025 & beyond

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 14:56:55 -0600

A weak La Niña is now in the forecast
- What does that mean for the long-range weather outlook and commodities?
Drought in the U.S. has expanded in recent months
- Will La Niña offer any relief?
Watch out for the potential of planting and harvest delays in Brazil this winter
Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
- Real-time market updates and technical analysis
- Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
- Price forecasts
- As well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

September WASDE: What's driving prices?

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 14:02:39 -0600

Corn
- Domestic corn acreage increased
- Corn yield lowered: Still too much, too soon?
- Slow down in ethanol
Soy Complex
- Uptick in soybean ending stocks and slightly higher acreage
- Upward to revision to crush
- Where’s China?
What's driving prices?
- Not much in the way of change short of production adjustments for corn, soy complex, but it’s what we DON’T see in the numbers that may drive prices for corn, soybeans, and soybean oil
Sugar
- Beet production lowered, while cane production increased
- Mexican imports cut in half under Suspension Agreement rules
- Stocks-to-use still well above the target
Next week is our Energy Market Update Webinar!
- Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Pre-heat for upcoming WASDE: Corn, soybeans & sugar outlook

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 13:24:58 -0600

Corn
- Corn yields should see reduction
- 2025/26 stocks could test 2.0 billion?
Soybeans
- Balance sheet could get tighter on possible yield reduction
Sugar
- Will USDA be able to cut into sugar surplus?
- Will the Louisiana cane crop meet record forecast of 2.154 million STRV?
- Has recent weather cut into the 262,000 STRV increase in beet production forecast last month?
Mark your calendar for our upcoming webinar!
- Energy Market Update Webinar
- Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

It’s Labor Day! That means fall & corn sweetener negotiations have commenced

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 12:14:20 -0600

Where is the corn sweetener market currently in negotiation?
Corn crop is seeing some challenges in August
- Top-end yield expectations could be revised lower
Co-product credit reconciliation and reporting will be a major topic of discussion
Mark your calendar for our upcoming webinar!
- Energy Market Update Webinar
- Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Checking in on corn & soybeans! A crop tour update

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:24:32 -0600

Pro Farmer sees strong corn yields for much of the Belt
Soybean pod counts well above last year for a few states
Findings for one “I” state leave room for uncertainty
As is often the case, regional weather dynamics may come into play for final national averages
Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform?
Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
- Real-time market updates and technical analysis
- Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
- Price forecasts
- Charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

August WASDE: Record yields in corn & sugar harvest has begun

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 14:25:56 -0600

Sugar
- Beet crop is looking excellent
  - Potential record yields?
- Harvesting has begun!
- Louisiana crop raised while Florida stays about the same
Corn
- Huge record on yield!
  - Due to lots of crops and good weather
- Biggest surprise? More acreage picked up
Soy complex
- What corn gained, soybeans lost
- Planted acres and exports down
Wheat
- More loss of acreage
- Yield up a bit
- Exports revised higher
Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
- real-time market updates and technical analysis
- discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
- price forecasts
- as well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Recapping this year’s ASA International Sweetener Symposium

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 13:17:32 -0600

What is the ASA Symposium?
- Who attends and what's discussed
Will the new Farm Bill become law this year?
Farmers’ take on the 2025/26 crops
- How are those crops in Florida and Louisiana doing?
Big takeaway:
- America’s farmers first, and no specialty refined quota
You can find much more info on sugar and other commodities on McKeany-Flavell's IQ Intelligence Platform
- Visit mckeany-flavell to learn more about what we offer 24/7 to our subscribers!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Crop progress, freight, & tariffs update

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 08:39:07 -0600

Crop progress
- Ideal weather for the U.S., but what about Canada and Europe?
- Corn: What’s up with those big numbers?!?
- Be on the lookout for August dryness and the hurricane season ramping up
Freight
- Union Pacific makes a major announcement (billions, not millions!)
- Ocean, rail, and trucking updates
  - Which one is most stable at the moment?
- Tariffs
  - Battling exhaustion
  - Exceptions for certain productions like coffee or tropical oils?
  - Ag policy: How the USDA is being restructured

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Catching up on the cocoa market

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 14:05:00 -0600

Current weather and conditions in West Africa
Anemic Q2 cocoa bean grind figures weigh on the market
Ghana is planning to change the new crop year start date from Oct. 1 to Aug. 1
Hershey announces more price increases?
- Halloween candy spared (for now)
Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
- Real-time market updates and technical analysis
- Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
- Price forecasts
- As well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

Fishing for answers in the latest data on consumer inflation, tariffs, & the economy

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 13:27:39 -0600

Consumer inflation edges higher in June
Wholesale prices surprise by falling
Market shaves off some of the rate reductions but still sees lower funds target at year-end
Is Chairman Powell content to keep rates steady until tariff rates and policies are better understood?
Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to:
- Real-time market updates and technical analysis
- Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
- Price forecasts
- As well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

July WASDE: Big buyers, consumption assumptions, & the effects of the BBB

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 14:29:32 -0600

Wheat
- U.S. wheat ending stocks projected higher YOY
- Production up due to higher yields?
- Global production is declining
Corn
- U.S. corn ending stocks fall further for this year and next
- Who is the big buyer of corn?
- Consumption assumptions are strong!
Soy complex
- BBB and EPA driving large biofuel consumption for soybean oil in 2025/26
- Food use change is a head-scratcher
- What’s 2025/26 looking like?
Sugar
- Sugar deliveries for food use are down from last year
  - What’s the forecast for 2026?
- Beet production lowered
- Mexico imports down
Next week is our Wheat Market Update Webinar!
- Wed., July 19, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Be on the lookout for your invite or sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Any commodity fireworks ahead for the Fourth of July holiday?

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:45:59 -0600

Recap of the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports
How’s the weather forecast looking for the first half of July?
Trump’s tariff deadline is next week, Jul. 9
- Will we see more threats and volatility?
Our upcoming webinar: Wheat Market Update Webinar
- Wed., July 19, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Be on the lookout for your invite or sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

A contrarian economic report + Live from the Western Candy Conference!

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 13:47:53 -0600

Contrarian growth points:
- Q2 2025 GDP set to rebound, but how sharply?
- Forward inflation favorable to Fed’s target
- Will tax cuts be extended?
- Prediction! Interest rates lower this time next year
- Equities hit record high
USDA's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports out on Monday!
- Setting the tone for the coming months
Mike is live at the Western Candy Conference!
Save the date for our next webinar!
- Wheat Market Update Webinar
- Wed., July 19, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Look for your invite going out next week or sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

It’s plastic! Resin discussion with Michael Workman & Kevin Mekaru of RTi Global

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 11:10:36 -0600

Meet RTi Global
- Who they are and what they do
- Find them on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RTiGetResinSmart
- And LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/resin-technology-inc/
Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP)
- Where we are and where have we been?
Hurricane season could add market volatility
Tariffs, geopolitics, and trade are impactful in resins, as is the case with everything else!
Market outlook and strategies for resin buyers to consider
Our next webinar is next week!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Summer Crop Estimates & Market Direction
- Wed., June 25, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Look out for your invite or sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

June WASDE rundown + sugar negotiations update

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 13:41:52 -0600

Typical June WASDE with few changes to grain supply and demand estimates
Corn
- 2024/25 corn exports increased, lowering ending stocks by same amount
- Brazil and Argentina corn production unchanged at 130 MMT and 50 MMT
Wheat
- 2025/26 wheat saw a healthy increase to exports
Soy complex
- No changes to U.S. soybean complex estimates
Sugar
- Sugar deliveries continue to trend lower
- Beet production also lowered for current and next year
- Update on sugar negotiations
Our next webinar is fast approaching!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Summer Crop Estimates & Market Direction
- Wed., June 25, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Look out for your invite or sign up on mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

#11 world sugar update: Factors & market direction

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 13:33:16 -0600

Brazil
- Harvest ramping up with production expected to increase
- Corn crops encroaching on sugar?
India
- Production to rebound in 2025/26
- What are the struggles their sugar crops are facing?
Thailand
- Next key exporter behind Brazil
- Can we expect a similar crop to last year?
What are #11 world futures market trading at now?
Our upcoming webinar!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Summer Crop Estimates & Market Direction
- Wed., June 25, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Look for your invite going out the week of June 9 or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Understanding the COT Report

Fri, 30 May 2025 12:01:17 -0600

Legacy vs. disaggregated report
Long format vs. short format
Futures only vs. futures and options
Commercial vs. non-commercial
Managed money vs. other report tables
The supplemental CIT report
Save the date for our next webinar!
- Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Summer Crop Estimates & Market Direction
- Wed., June 25, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Look for your invite going out the week of June 9 or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Summer 2025 weather outlook

Fri, 23 May 2025 14:07:39 -0600

Memorial Day is here, and current conditions in the U.S. are ideal
- Spring row crops off to a good start
- A pattern switch to more warmth and dryness is still expected
Hurricane season begins Jun. 1
- Another active year is forecasted
Missed our 2025 Spring Market Seminar in April?
- IQ Premier-level subscribers may now watch presentation videos here!
- Not an IQ platform subscriber? Contact us to learn more!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Wheat market roundup & Sweets & Snacks Expo live recap!

Fri, 16 May 2025 11:53:33 -0600

What’s new this year at the Sweets and Snacks Expo?
- Sugary treats vs. chocolate offerings: Who’s winning?
- Freeze-dried candy: Even bigger than last year!
- Lots of talk around new regulations for artificial dyes and possible challenges
Wheat
- Wheat crop tour in Kansas showing good potential
- Some risk of virus and disease
  - Could use an end to the rains in June before harvest
- H2 2025 wheat futures: Buy now?
Missed our 2025 Spring Market Seminar in April?
- IQ Premier-level subscribers may now watch presentation videos here!
- Not an IQ platform subscriber? Contact us to learn more!
Our next webinar is fast approaching!
- Economy Update Webinar: Economic Growth, Employment, Inflation, & Global Trade
- Wed., May 21, 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
- Look for your invite or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

May WASDE report: Unusually optimistic?

Mon, 12 May 2025 14:33:18 -0600

Corn and soy complex
- Initial 2025/26 corn and soybean projections present headscratchers for consumption
- Higher YOY consumption for 2025/26 in corn for feed, exports, and soybean oil for biofuel and food
Wheat
- New crop 2025/26 wheat stocks projected to reach a six-year high
- Many questions on wheat supply: Perhaps too optimistic out of the gate?
- Global wheat production reaches a record, while stocks remain flat
Sugar
- 2024/25 deliveries for food use lowered by how much?
- Initial 2025/26 beet production forecast for beet and cane
Missed our 2025 Spring Market Seminar in April?
- IQ Premier-level subscribers may now watch presentation videos here!
- Not an IQ platform subscriber? Contact us to learn more!
Our next webinar
- Economy Update Webinar: Economic Growth, Employment, Inflation, & Global Trade
- Wed., May 21, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Look for your invite or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

A sugary update treat for Mother’s Day!

Fri, 09 May 2025 13:32:30 -0600

Sugar beet plantings are nearly complete
What are the initial 2025/26 WASDE beet estimates likely to be?
2026 contracting is picking up pace, at about 50% complete
Missed our 2025 Spring Market Seminar in April?
- IQ Premier-level subscribers may now watch presentation videos here!
- Not an IQ platform subscriber? Contact us to learn more!
Our next webinar is coming up!
- Economy Update Webinar: Economic Growth, Employment, Inflation, & Global Trade
- Wed., May 21, 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
- Look for your invite or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

The latest jobs report recap

Fri, 02 May 2025 12:20:14 -0600

GDP contracts for the first time since March 2022
Unemployment rate unchanged, with an increase to month-over-month non-farm jobs
What were the job winners?
Why are manufacturing jobs remaining problematic?
Thanks to all who participated in our 2025 Spring Market Seminar!
- Videos available soon on our IQ platform for IQ subscribers who attended!
Save the date for our next webinar!
- Economy Update Webinar: Economic Growth, Employment, Inflation, & Global Trade
- Wed., May 21, 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
- Look for your invite going out next week or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Cocoa & sugar headaches & closures: What’s the cure?

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 14:22:55 -0600

Cocoa
- Why is cocoa remaining a commodity headache?
- Q1 2025 cocoa bean grinds were better than expectations
- U.S. cocoa bean stocks improve
Sugar
- Brawley, CA sugar beet plant to close
  - What does it mean for the sugar market?
Thanks to all who participated in our 2025 Spring Market Seminar!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

What are edible oil users wondering about this week?

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 12:51:28 -0600

The dreaded “T” word and its impact on a few edible oil categories
Why the bullishness in soybean oil futures?
Join us next Wednesday, April 23!
- McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Not a client? It’s only $395 per person to attend!
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

A calm April WASDE amidst the tariff tumult

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 13:44:43 -0600

Soy complex
- Slight change to soybean ending stocks
- Production increases in soybean oil along with decreases to biofuels and food use were mostly offset by an increase to exports
Wheat
- Significant increases to hard red winter and spring wheat
  - How has the market reacted?
Corn
- Corn use up putting ending stocks-to-use down
Sugar
- Beet production up to a record, while cane production is lowered
- High-tier imports increased
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Eggs & avian flu update

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 07:29:12 -0600

Recent avian flu hits & spring migration
Egg supply & current demand
A sneak peek at eggs being covered at our Spring Seminar
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Have you registered? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to get it done!

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

Unpacking the USDA Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings reports

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 14:47:28 -0600

Corn and soybeans
- Corn, soybean acreage relatively in line with pre-report estimates
- Less corn, soybeans in on-farm storage than last year
Wheat
- Second fewest planted wheat acres on record
- Hard red spring wheat down how much?
- Wheat stocks come in slightly bearish and above expectations
Sugar
- Beet planting area forecast to increase
- Minnesota and North Dakota both up
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Have you registered? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to get it done!

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

March Madness continues next week as USDA takes on Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings!

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 12:07:42 -0600

Market expects more corn acreage vs. soybeans, but just how much?
Wheat acres could see a small increase vs. last year
Wheat futures also reach fresh contract lows today: Great buying opportunity!
Grain stocks may surprise more than the acreage report, so too could the Apr. 2 tariff deadline
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Predicting the unpredictable: Weather, wheat, & the economy

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 12:05:46 -0600

Wheat
- U.S. winter wheat crop has endured challenges
- Will April rains be welcomed?
Weather
- La Niña expected to fade in the coming weeks
- U.S. Midwest dealing with more drought and dryness headed into spring planting season
Economy
- Fed holds rates steady but eases via treasury holdings
- FOMC lowers 2025 growth forecast and raises inflation forecast
- With two opposite battles to find, will Chairman Powell likely choose slowing growth as the most eminent problem?
Join us next Wednesday, March 26 for our Seasonal Market Outlook webinar!
- Look out for your invite or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Needing some Irish luck: Inflation, consumers, & the economy

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 13:59:31 -0600

Inflation, while elevated, is taking a back seat to tariff troubles
Consumer sentiment and spending is declining, raising questions about future demand
Wall Street and others are lowering their U.S. growth forecasts: Will this spread globally?
Time to talk 2026 sugar with your suppliers
May the Luck O’ the Irish be with you!
Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
- Wednesday, March 26, 2025
- Look for your invite next week, or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host/Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

March WASDE: A little sizzle but not much fire

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 13:50:28 -0600

Corn and soy complex
- U.S. corn, soybean balance sheets unchanged with much in the way of consumption uncertainty
- Global S&D for corn and soybeans both show declining ending stocks vs. last month’s report
Wheat
- USDA cuts exports due to slower sales and shipments
- Global wheat ending stocks FINALLY deviate from the 257 MMT stranglehold!
Sugar
- Sugar deliveries lowered
- Beet production increased to a record amount
Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
- Wednesday, March 26, 2025
- Look for your email invite, or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Tariffs: What we know today

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 12:04:11 -0600

Outlining risks and impacts in the short- and long-term for grains and softs
Import tariffs and agricultural products coming in…
- Impact on some edible oil, corn-derivative, cocoa, and sugar markets
Retaliatory tariffs and agricultural products going out…
- Impact on corn, wheat, soy complex, and meat exports
Wheat
- Impacts net bearish long term, but regional basis could rise without Canadian wheat imports
Cocoa
- Cocoa products from Canada subject to “pantry loading” ahead of tariffs—or users pushing out orders to avoid tariffs
Sugar
- Mexican sugar imports at risk of tariffs—longer-term price implications
Bearish corn, soybeans, and soybean meal but very supportive for soybean oil
Smaller and niche edible oil markets most impacted by import tariffs
Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
- Wednesday, March 26, 2025
- Look for your invite next week, or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host/Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum: A first look at the 2025/26 crops

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 13:43:28 -0600

Corn
- Acreage near expectations
- Ending stocks to grow
- Will we see growth in consumption in 2025/26?
Soybeans
- Small reduction in yield
- Ending stocks to decline, but consumption remains a question
Wheat
- U.S. wheat acreage target vs. 2024
- Some questions around spring wheat acres and yield being too high
- Ending stocks could offer a small surplus
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Live from the International Sweetener Colloquium 2025!

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 12:10:27 -0600

Focus:
- What's happening in the sugar industry and with sugar negotiations
Big question:
- How are negotiations at this year’s Colloquium comparing to the past few years?
Patient vs. pushing
- Are we seeing the “first buy is the best buy” mentality this year?
Big topics:
- Upcoming crop outlook
- Tariffs, demand, and weight-loss drugs
  - Will the sugar still flow?
  - What about sugar-containing products?
  - Possible situation with domestic production and consumption?
It's going to be an interesting round of negotiations over the next few months!
Shout-out to Craig Ruffolo and Shawn Bingham for their fantastic presentations!
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Wheat winterkill & investments in commodities

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 14:31:38 -0600

Wheat
- Assessing winterkill risk on wheat
- HRW: What does the 10-year harvested area average look like?
- How does this winter compare to years past?
Commodity index funds
- Inflation worries are driving new investor money into commodity index funds
- Top diversified commodity funds are seeing strong growth in new assets
- Update on allocations to agricultural commodities as part of a diversified fund portfolio
- How much have these funds contributed to new long positions in corn, wheat, and sugar futures from last year's lows?
2025 International Sweetener Colloquium
- Kicks of this Sunday, Feb. 23
- Seven representatives of McKeany-Flavell will be in attendance
- Watch Craig Ruffolo speak on the North American Sweetener Market Outlook panel on Feb. 24!
- Watch Shawn Bingham speak on Risk Management in Volatile Markets on Feb. 25!
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event! Free for all clients!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Happy Valentine's Day! A cocoa & chocolate update

Fri, 14 Feb 2025 14:04:12 -0600

Cocoa arrival numbers and weather tell of a promising season ahead
Major cocoa and chocolate producers are concerned about how cocoa prices can affect their financial performance and projections for the year
Q4 2024 grind showed a decline in demand: Will Q1 2025 grind help with the trajectory?
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Registration is now open!

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

February WASDE: Wildly...uninteresting

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 15:04:16 -0600

Corn and soy complex
- USDA leaves U.S. corn/soybean balance sheet unchanged
Wheat
- Limited changes to note for wheat
- U.S. wheat food demand increases, but was it justified?
- Global endings stocks: How much lower vs. last year?
Sugar
- Sugar deliveries now compared to last year
- TRQ imports lowered
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Registration is now open!

Economic roundup: Jobs & wages, the Fed, tariffs, & commodities

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 13:25:02 -0600

Jobs number disappoints slightly but revisions to prior months were positive
Unemployment rate falls to lowest in eight months
Wage growth is accelerating but will it keep the Fed sidelined?
Final tariff policy and impact still a big unknown: Leaning towards inflationary?
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Registration is now open!

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Mexico sugar & the possible impacts of tariffs

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 13:50:30 -0600

Will Mexico production fall below the 5.094 MMT forecast?
How tariffs on Mexico may impact sugar trade
McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
- Live online event!
- Wednesday, April 23, 2025
- Registration is now open!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Brrrr! It’s cold out there! Polar vortex hits the U.S.

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 13:28:58 -0600

What impacts did we see from the harsh winter weather this week?
Louisiana cane crop concerns
Winter wheat threatened
Rumors of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
Next week! Don’t miss our Key Ingredients in 2025 webinar
- Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
- Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting next week

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Jobs, inflation, & policy: No shortage of volatility!

Fri, 17 Jan 2025 13:45:01 -0600

December jobs boost economic expectations
December FOMC points to higher inflation and fewer rate cuts
Policy decisions to ban future oil drilling and add new sanctions to Russia, along with threats from Canada, spike crude prices
January WASDE bullish to grain market?
No shortage of volatility ahead of next Monday’s Inauguration Day!
Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025
- Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
- Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or if you’re a client, look for an invite in your inbox

Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

January WASDE: Exciting, surprising, & revealing

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 15:06:40 -0600

Corn and soy complex
- USDA surprises with reduced U.S. production for corn, soybeans
- Domestic soybean oil balance sheet is likely more ominous than ending stocks would indicate
Wheat
- Winter wheat acres on the rise! Up how much from 2024?
- Grain stocks and WASDE about as expected
Sugar
- Beet production increased
- A boost to stocks-to-use ratio
Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025
- Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
- Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting next week
Our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the LA fires

School’s in session! Futures market speculators

Fri, 03 Jan 2025 14:25:33 -0600

Commodity trading advisor (CTA) assets under management
- Down from 2022 peak but still significant
Large CTAs trade as many as 250 futures contracts globally
- Which category manages the majority of assets?
Between January 2021 and February 2024, fund managers rode corn from record-long to record-short positions
- How many contracts did they sell?
How were speculators positioned in last year's soybean oil market?
Lack of speculator liquidity likely helped fuel cocoa rally in 2024
Mark your calendars for our next webinar! Not to be missed!
- Key Ingredients in 2025
- January 29, 2025 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Registration opens soon at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Looking down the road: Our predictions for 2025

Fri, 27 Dec 2024 09:47:47 -0600

Corn
- Corn acres will go up on better returns than soybeans
- Feed demand may shrink due to continued issues of avian flu
- Exports are being front-loaded but could stall in the second half
- Could ending stocks equal 2024?
Sugar
- At what prices will sugar futures be trading in 2025?
- Strong supplies and slightly lower demand in 2025 to pressure 2026 contracting, but by how much?
Wheat
- Ditto or status quo on 2025 vs. 2024?
- What to expect from 2025/26 U.S. stocks surplus, as well as global stocks
- Expectations for 2025/26 U.S. wheat exports
- Two more countries will approve HB4 GMO wheat: Guesses as to who
Soy complex & edible oils
- Prevailing prediction: Volatility!
- Uncertain biofuel and economic pictures provide a broad range of price possibilities
- Does avian flu spreading to mammals fill more of the conversation in 2025?
Economy & energy
- Let’s talk basis cuts from the Fed
- How will the CPI and GDP hold up?
- Observations for WTI crude oil: What to expect
Happy New Year!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

A holiday poem, McKeany-Flavell style

Fri, 20 Dec 2024 13:29:41 -0600

Find a warm, cozy spot and listen to Nicole showcase her annual holiday poem, as only she can do.

Happy Holidays!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Vibe check on the wheat market

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 12:59:51 -0600

U.S. winter wheat crop conditions are strong heading into winter
- Is La Niña still forecasted?
Speculators may liquidate hefty short positions
Russia/Ukraine war full of uncertainty and will enhance volatility
What to expect from commodities in 2025?
- Keep an eye out for our 2025 predictions podcast coming to you soon!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Ho ho holy December WASDE!

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 14:29:13 -0600

Wheat
- Wheat exports increase
- Stocks fall
Soy complex
- Soybean balance sheet unchanged for U.S.
- Global stocks still huge
Corn
- Production down globally
- Stronger use for corn in the U.S.
- How’s ethanol demand looking?
Sugar
- USDA raises import level: How disappointed will Mexico be?
- Believe it or not, the International Sweetener Colloquium is right around the corner! (February 23-26, 2025): See you there!
Keep an eye out for our 2025 predictions podcast! Coming to you soon.

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Winning in edible oils is all about the fundamentals!

Fri, 06 Dec 2024 15:21:15 -0600

Market fundamentals
- Global markets
  - European production issues for crops
- Domestic markets
  - Latest crush report shows 10-year lows
How likely are we to see sustained price relief for vegetable oils?
The incoming U.S. administration spells lots of uncertainty
- Biofuel policy, imports, tariffs, and even TikTok
Used cooking oil and its effect on soybean oil usage in biofuels
Interested in learning more about coconut oil products?
- Head over to mckeany-flavell.com to watch our video, “Going Coconuts”!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Setting the table with turkey & corn...sweetener negotiations that is!

Wed, 27 Nov 2024 13:25:50 -0600

Contracting is nearing its completion
- Results are a mixed bag
- Corn prices were not a factor
Product demand assisted in price offers for 2025
Wet mill operations show little change
- New production at Ft. Dodge and Shenandoah
U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition!
- What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know
- Processes, products, pricing, and growth potential
- Visit us at mckeany-flavell.com to purchase your copy today!
Happy Thanksgiving!

Host: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Update on the latest milk production report

Fri, 22 Nov 2024 11:40:45 -0600

Little change in total U.S. herd: Where are we sitting now?
Yield or productivity per cow at the farm level
How has total milk output been measured on a cumulative YTD basis through October?
Missed our webinar on Wednesday? Watch now on IQ!
- Revisiting Systematic Timing Models: A Secret Weapon for Procurement Risk Management
- Not an IQ subscriber but want to learn more? Reach out to McKeany-Flavell to find out how an IQ subscription can benefit you and your company today.

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

A forward look at winter weather, La Niña, & inflation

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 12:49:27 -0600

Weather
- NOAA’s latest odds of a La Niña are declining: Will it actually arrive?
- Winter weather expectations may not be as threatening to crops like wheat
The markets
- CPI sees three consecutive months of increases
- How much did the PPI move over the last three months?
- Fed Powell surprises market with hawkish comments
Don’t forget to register for next Wednesday’s webinar!
- Revisiting Systematic Timing Models: A Secret Weapon for Procurement Risk Management
- November 20, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Register at mckeany-flavell.com today!

Host/Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

The November USDA WASDE bullish award goes to...

Fri, 08 Nov 2024 15:15:35 -0600

Sugar
- USDA adjusts for early harvest sugar
- Shifts in old crop numbers
Wheat
- Few changes for wheat, global stocks remain steady at 257 MMT
- Shout out to Kazakhstan with a 2 MMT increase to production!
Corn & Soy Complex
- Both U.S. corn and soybean yields reduced (and much more for the latter).
- Ending stocks of soybean oil growing more ominous for 2024/25

Register for our next webinar on November 20, 2024 at 2:00 PM ET!
Revisiting Systematic Timing Models
Visit mckeany-flavell.com to reserve your seat today!

Host/Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Experts: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Will this Halloween be spooky for chocolate lovers?

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 14:10:30 -0600

With hefty chocolate prices scaring consumers, will we see a bias for sugar-based confectionery treats?
Prices at the grocery store: Chocolate candies vs. sugar, candy, and gum
Retailers are promoting more aggressively to move products
- Will price increases continue to insulate most companies on earnings/sales?
Mark your calendars for our next webinar!
- Revisiting Systematic Timing Models with Dir. of Risk Management, Shawn Bingham
- Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024
- Registration opens week of Nov. 4 at mckeany-flavell.com
- Clients check your inboxes

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

Bulls vs. bears! Which direction could edible oils & wheat be trending?

Fri, 25 Oct 2024 12:55:22 -0600

Weather trending more bullish by the month for wheat
U.S. wheat exports up YOY, but pace is slowing
Global supply tightening leading to elevated edible oils prices
Geopolitical factors, election outcome, and consumer behavior are impactful unknowns for vegetable oil consumption
U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition!
- What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know
- Processes, products, pricing, and growth potential
- Visit us at mckeany-flavell.com to purchase your copy today!
Missed this week's Fall Market Outlook webinar? If you're an IQ subscriber, watch it now on the IQ Platform!
- Not a subscriber? Reach out for a trial subscription today!

Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Frightening October energy volatility

Fri, 18 Oct 2024 14:35:45 -0600

Energy volatility has been heightened by the ongoing events in the Middle East
Disruption to the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest risk
U.S. oil production reaches a new peak
Could global economic slowing see WTI spend more time below $70 than above?
Webinar next week!
- Fall Market Outlook
- Wednesday, October 23
- Registration is now open! Check your email or visit mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

October WASDE can be full of scary surprises! Did today hold up?

Fri, 11 Oct 2024 13:49:33 -0600

Wheat
- U.S. wheat stocks decline, but still up YOY
Soy complex
- Soybean & soybean oil balance sheets unchanged
Corn
- See soy complex
Sugar
- Beet sugar production up
- 2023/23 high-tier raised by how much?
Now available for purchase!
- McKeany-Flavell’s U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition
- What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know
- Visit us at mckeany-flavell.com to learn more
Don’t forget to register for our next webinar!
- Fall Market Outlook on October 23, 2024
- Registration is now open! Check your email or visit mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

What a wild world! Current factors shaping commodity prices

Fri, 04 Oct 2024 11:47:42 -0600

The strike is off! (at least for now…)
Good jobs report with some points of consideration
Turmoil in the Middle East putting at least a temporary floor beneath futures prices
Don’t forget to register for our next webinar
- Fall Market Outlook on October 23, 2024
- Registration opens week of Oct. 7 at mckeany-flavell.com
- Clients check your inboxes

Host/Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Interpreting today's USDA Grain Stocks & Small Grains reports

Mon, 30 Sep 2024 13:58:41 -0600

September stock revisions
- Net bullish for corn
- Neutral for soybeans
Wheat production fell by how much?
Harvested area for wheat increases, while yield falls
Next webinar! Fall Market Overview
- Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024
- Registration opens week of Oct. 7 at mckeany-flavell.com
- Clients check your inboxes

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist