Eye On The Market http://jpmorgan.com/eotm Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets. Tue, 03 Mar 2026 09:10:22 -0500 https://podbean.com/?v=5.5 en Copyright J.P. Morgan Asset Management 2023 Business:Investing 1440 episodic Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets. Michael Cembalest Michael Cembalest No false https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4541994/1400x1400.jpg Eye On The Market http://jpmorgan.com/eotm 144 144 Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/fighting-words-the-energy-transition-in-2026/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/fighting-words-the-energy-transition-in-2026/#comments Tue, 03 Mar 2026 09:10:22 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/0ae5fb2c-a1f6-345d-a71b-9fee71faccd3 Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels, and the unfavorable economics of charging my Jeep Wrangler hybrid.

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]]> Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels, and the unfavorable economics of charging my Jeep Wrangler hybrid.

Watch the video

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 2383 90 full Supply and The Mam Supply and The Mam https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/supply-and-the-mam/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/supply-and-the-mam/#comments Thu, 05 Feb 2026 08:59:30 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/2a88079f-2ccd-3269-9fe8-d15d5f67dee3 New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960.

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]]> New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960.

Watch the video

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1516 89 full Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/smothering-heights/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/smothering-heights/#comments Thu, 01 Jan 2026 07:17:28 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/48decd93-cc04-3c93-99cc-46460a12eff1 In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits.

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]]> In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 2149 88 full The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-deep-end-2025-alternative-investments-review/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-deep-end-2025-alternative-investments-review/#comments Tue, 02 Dec 2025 08:49:05 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/98c498c2-f489-3ee9-9efc-790ff329f82f On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago.

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]]> On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago.

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 2132 87 full The winter of our discontent: generative AI disrupts the entertainment industry content moat The winter of our discontent: generative AI disrupts the entertainment industry content moat https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-winter-of-our-discontent-the-impact-of-generative-ai-on-the-entertainment-industry-content-moat/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-winter-of-our-discontent-the-impact-of-generative-ai-on-the-entertainment-industry-content-moat/#comments Wed, 05 Nov 2025 12:15:42 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/3b047eed-bbf2-3d06-8f1d-d2fc89cd7156 While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI. This month’s Eye on the Market looks at the rapidly shifting fortunes in legacy cable/broadcast shares vs streaming, the rise of social media as a platform for consuming all forms of content, rising acceptance of user-generated content and the increasing democratization of text-to-video tools used to create it, the value of the legacy content moat in film/tv libraries and the best movies of the 21st century (as ranked by me).

View video here]]> While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI. This month’s Eye on the Market looks at the rapidly shifting fortunes in legacy cable/broadcast shares vs streaming, the rise of social media as a platform for consuming all forms of content, rising acceptance of user-generated content and the increasing democratization of text-to-video tools used to create it, the value of the legacy content moat in film/tv libraries and the best movies of the 21st century (as ranked by me).

View video here]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1437 86 full Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/mad-libs-just-fill-in-the-blanks/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/mad-libs-just-fill-in-the-blanks/#comments Thu, 16 Oct 2025 09:05:20 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/ee142e0f-4f04-3b36-bb3b-27fa2c782232 Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-blank exercise regarding the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on growth, the impact of Chinese critical mineral export restrictions, Oracle’s debt levels and borrowing capacity, central bank gold reserves and the gender balance of psychiatric medication.

View video here

 ]]> Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-blank exercise regarding the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on growth, the impact of Chinese critical mineral export restrictions, Oracle’s debt levels and borrowing capacity, central bank gold reserves and the gender balance of psychiatric medication.

View video here

 ]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1266 85 full The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-blob-capital-china-chips-chicago-and-chilliwack/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-blob-capital-china-chips-chicago-and-chilliwack/#comments Wed, 24 Sep 2025 08:49:49 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/3333cacc-7784-3ac6-831b-fedf0ad017c4 In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many countries support national champions via industrial policy; efforts in China to reduce excess capacity and consequences for equity investors; crime and municipal solvency in Chicago and Illinois; how tight net new equity supply has been supporting US equity markets since 2011; and pictures from Chilliwack, Canada.

View video here

 ]]> In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many countries support national champions via industrial policy; efforts in China to reduce excess capacity and consequences for equity investors; crime and municipal solvency in Chicago and Illinois; how tight net new equity supply has been supporting US equity markets since 2011; and pictures from Chilliwack, Canada.

View video here

 ]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1627 84 full Fair Shakes Fair Shakes https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/fair-shakes/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/fair-shakes/#comments Tue, 02 Sep 2025 11:56:43 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/254cb0ab-add5-3ed7-8c67-0d6173bb46dc Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the Census and the balance in the US House of Representatives.

View video here

 

]]> Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the Census and the balance in the US House of Representatives.

View video here

 

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 2005 83 full Summer mailbag Summer mailbag https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/summer-mailbag/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/summer-mailbag/#comments Tue, 29 Jul 2025 09:57:33 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/abf5ba80-72e1-3267-b527-31a1f417a5a9 Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag.

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]]> Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 2592 81 full Time Flies: Twenty Years of Eye on the Market Time Flies: Twenty Years of Eye on the Market https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/20-years-of-eye-on-the-market-jp-morgan/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/20-years-of-eye-on-the-market-jp-morgan/#comments Wed, 09 Jul 2025 06:28:52 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/f7e1bec8-6eae-3f71-80f4-a735d11200d4 Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past.

Explore our insights

]]> Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past.

Explore our insights

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 728 80 full "OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and presidential break-ups "OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and presidential break-ups https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/ok-boomer-on-stablecoins-profits-tax-cuts-vs-tariffs-and-presidential-break-ups/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/ok-boomer-on-stablecoins-profits-tax-cuts-vs-tariffs-and-presidential-break-ups/#comments Thu, 03 Jul 2025 09:31:33 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/85d82ab8-d724-37b2-9e39-5cdc97ec2b0c Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits. Why would lightly regulated stablecoins be any different?

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]]> Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits. Why would lightly regulated stablecoins be any different?

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1237 79 full Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/chicken-hawks-a-quick-note-on-the-us-budget-reconciliation-bil/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/chicken-hawks-a-quick-note-on-the-us-budget-reconciliation-bil/#comments Tue, 27 May 2025 12:32:07 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/ab9e5f77-fde3-31ea-984d-d1b43830d25d A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.

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]]> A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 989 78 full Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/back-to-our-regularly-scheduled-programming/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/back-to-our-regularly-scheduled-programming/#comments Tue, 13 May 2025 09:31:41 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e0780aed-a052-39d8-8b83-e75d3f38ab89 With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.

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]]> With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1789 77 full Dogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE’s impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker Dogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE’s impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/dogespierre-has-left-the-building-assessing-doge-s-impact-on-us-government-spending/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/dogespierre-has-left-the-building-assessing-doge-s-impact-on-us-government-spending/#comments Thu, 01 May 2025 08:56:36 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/a10ea1e0-7e4e-3a5c-8e68-1db1aff44549 Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his core businesses, we take an early look at DOGE’s impact on US government spending, the likely overestimation of estimated savings, negative fiscal feedback loops from firing IRS workers, conflicts of interest and possible consequences of DOGE spending cuts. Also: the latest data from the Trump Tracker and some comments on the Spanish power outage.

View video here

]]> Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his core businesses, we take an early look at DOGE’s impact on US government spending, the likely overestimation of estimated savings, negative fiscal feedback loops from firing IRS workers, conflicts of interest and possible consequences of DOGE spending cuts. Also: the latest data from the Trump Tracker and some comments on the Spanish power outage.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1567 76 full Redacted Redacted https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/redacted/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/redacted/#comments Wed, 02 Apr 2025 11:44:27 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/c27b72fb-9113-30ca-97cb-8f23c2d244d1 Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.

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]]> Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 780 75 full Fifty Days of Grey Fifty Days of Grey https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/fifty-days-of-grey/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/fifty-days-of-grey/#comments Wed, 12 Mar 2025 11:14:18 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/abd4f4b3-20e4-3735-a947-c1dfd45011ed Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.

While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate with more of the former than the latter. The only surprise is that it’s happening before 50 days has passed since the inauguration.

View video here

 

]]> Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.

While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate with more of the former than the latter. The only surprise is that it’s happening before 50 days has passed since the inauguration.

View video here

 

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1087 74 full Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/heliocentrism-objects-may-be-further-away-than-they-appear/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/heliocentrism-objects-may-be-further-away-than-they-appear/#comments Tue, 04 Mar 2025 07:05:24 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/5a8379d6-4e3c-3296-91a8-9a124d5dce48 Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.

View transcript

View video here

]]> Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.

View transcript

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1198 73 full From Here to Eternity From Here to Eternity https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/from-here-to-eternity/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/from-here-to-eternity/#comments Thu, 13 Feb 2025 06:15:14 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/df9ed7bf-6e24-32c8-984c-e31385d5bf9d From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones

Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.

View video here

]]> From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones

Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 630 72 full Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/inauguruption-the-flurry-of-trump-20-executive-orders/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/inauguruption-the-flurry-of-trump-20-executive-orders/#comments Tue, 21 Jan 2025 12:04:33 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/c0144b60-d3a2-357f-979a-8bbae69b53c6 Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.

View video here]]> Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.

View video here]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1185 71 full Eye on the Market Outlook 2025: The Alchemists Eye on the Market Outlook 2025: The Alchemists https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/eye-on-the-market-outlook-2025-the-alchemists/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/eye-on-the-market-outlook-2025-the-alchemists/#comments Wed, 01 Jan 2025 07:54:17 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/2162bba3-e6b6-337b-ab15-a01b33602ea1 Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.

View the video here

]]> Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.

View the video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 2173 70 full The Year of Living Dangerously The Year of Living Dangerously https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-year-of-living-dangerously-1733846693/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-year-of-living-dangerously-1733846693/#comments Tue, 10 Dec 2024 12:31:26 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/2798722b-0217-3ef2-b001-8dda6de191e2 I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said. View video here

]]> I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 994 69 full "Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story "Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/kamilton-the-2024-election-and-who-tells-your-story/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/kamilton-the-2024-election-and-who-tells-your-story/#comments Wed, 06 Nov 2024 16:26:01 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/49df553e-8553-3099-a889-95a428421822 A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.

]]> A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1202 67 full The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-thucydides-cap-on-the-china-equity-rebound-trade/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-thucydides-cap-on-the-china-equity-rebound-trade/#comments Thu, 17 Oct 2024 11:23:16 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/12a3efe9-b280-39f3-aa18-c591868e3c1a For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.

Click here to read the full PDF and view the video.

]]> For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.

Click here to read the full PDF and view the video.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 854 66 full Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/mind-the-gap/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/mind-the-gap/#comments Mon, 30 Sep 2024 10:03:59 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/1277fcff-76e1-3143-a2a0-aa5df5ed9430 Candidate policy comparisons in a historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package

The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years. Today’s note looks at candidate policy differences and implications for investors: government spending, taxation, tariffs, trade, immigration, regulation, NATO, energy, price controls and the Electoral College. We conclude with analysis of the China stimulus package, which might have a better chance of succeeding than recent failed efforts.

]]> Candidate policy comparisons in a historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package

The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years. Today’s note looks at candidate policy differences and implications for investors: government spending, taxation, tariffs, trade, immigration, regulation, NATO, energy, price controls and the Electoral College. We conclude with analysis of the China stimulus package, which might have a better chance of succeeding than recent failed efforts.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1764 65 full A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/a-severe-case-of-covidia/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/a-severe-case-of-covidia/#comments Tue, 03 Sep 2024 06:42:08 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/7d9e0faf-8953-39f5-9dc5-6292998f23a9 NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.

View video here

]]> NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1526 64 full There’s no place like home There’s no place like home https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/there-s-no-place-like-home/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/there-s-no-place-like-home/#comments Tue, 27 Aug 2024 10:16:12 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/97cee465-f8c5-3625-8e40-dabeb1ef6f8c A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies may be worse for recipients of Google’s “shelf space” payments than for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for distressed office investors. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.

View video here

]]> A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies may be worse for recipients of Google’s “shelf space” payments than for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for distressed office investors. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1118 63 full The Lion in Winter The Lion in Winter https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-lion-in-winter/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-lion-in-winter/#comments Tue, 23 Jul 2024 08:00:55 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/ea108297-6695-3617-9abe-ca814f7e260f From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.

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]]> From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1003 62 full The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-supreme-court-vs-the-regulatory-state/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-supreme-court-vs-the-regulatory-state/#comments Tue, 09 Jul 2024 06:46:19 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/04806650-bdb9-3d1b-b176-8773e4973163 The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.

]]> The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1191 61 full A Piece of the Action A Piece of the Action https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/a-piece-of-the-action/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/a-piece-of-the-action/#comments Thu, 06 Jun 2024 06:55:12 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/28023811-6120-396e-914e-0542edab2fa6 Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sport betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.

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]]> Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sport betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 549 60 full Animal Farm Animal Farm https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/animal-farm-agriculture-from-an-investor-s-perspective/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/animal-farm-agriculture-from-an-investor-s-perspective/#comments Wed, 15 May 2024 06:41:41 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/c0b2b248-e2fd-3837-ab59-f691f4046850 With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.

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]]> With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1413 59 full Cicadian Rhythms Cicadian Rhythms https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/cicadian-rhythms/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/cicadian-rhythms/#comments Wed, 24 Apr 2024 07:10:00 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/cc890213-6618-3970-bba9-8c82ec9ffe82 Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model

]]> Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1411 58 full The Good, the Bad and the Ugly The Good, the Bad and the Ugly https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/#comments Tue, 02 Apr 2024 11:35:27 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/fc1817f8-b899-33d1-a497-d0c895f250b5 The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election.

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]]> The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election.

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1154 57 full Electravision Electravision https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/electravision/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/electravision/#comments Tue, 05 Mar 2024 05:00:00 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/81a3b085-c34d-3046-9f90-36120d501b91 This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage.

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]]> This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage.

View video here

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1332 56 full Five Easy Pieces Five Easy Pieces https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/five-easy-pieces/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/five-easy-pieces/#comments Thu, 08 Feb 2024 10:06:04 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/096efafa-d839-3541-a03a-07699f8b93f9 Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.

]]> Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1151 55 full Medical Complications Medical Complications https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/medical-complications/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/medical-complications/#comments Tue, 23 Jan 2024 09:44:09 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/5edb8cf1-f92e-3bdb-acde-84facd76e126 This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.

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]]> This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 709 54 full Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/episode-3-deep-dive%e2%80%94top-ten-surprises-for-2024/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/episode-3-deep-dive%e2%80%94top-ten-surprises-for-2024/#comments Wed, 17 Jan 2024 06:00:00 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/d5f1e2ad-4e24-3fd4-bd59-db63d3b5f70d A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien

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]]> A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 952 53 full Outlook 2024 - Episode 2: Deep Dive—The Fats Dominoes Outlook 2024 - Episode 2: Deep Dive—The Fats Dominoes https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/outlook-2024-deep-dive-the-fats-dominoes/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/outlook-2024-deep-dive-the-fats-dominoes/#comments Wed, 10 Jan 2024 07:00:00 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/7675ee6c-5da3-3d00-a00a-b29147956a5a The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets.

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]]> The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets.

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1094 52 full Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk - Episode 1: Outlook Overview Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk - Episode 1: Outlook Overview https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/eye-on-the-market-outlook-2024-pillow-talk/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/eye-on-the-market-outlook-2024-pillow-talk/#comments Mon, 01 Jan 2024 06:14:42 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/4dc4e672-c4db-382c-bbaf-6222ec5a2c04 Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.

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]]> Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1463 51 full It’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review It’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/it-s-mostly-a-paper-moon-alternative-investment-review/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/it-s-mostly-a-paper-moon-alternative-investment-review/#comments Tue, 05 Dec 2023 09:14:10 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/c05d8326-c881-3808-ab2b-855b1faa3cec A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit

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]]> A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1272 50 full Not That 70’s Show Not That 70’s Show https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/not-that-70-s-show/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/not-that-70-s-show/#comments Tue, 14 Nov 2023 09:47:13 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/b36fa3ac-4612-3f24-baf1-cdb280f0a9e0 Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets

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]]> Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1586 49 full New York, Just Like I Pictured It New York, Just Like I Pictured It https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/new-york-just-like-i-pictured-it/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/new-york-just-like-i-pictured-it/#comments Mon, 16 Oct 2023 09:24:24 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/72500c37-b975-34bc-af5f-e449e3da1de7 Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.

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]]> Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1360 48 full What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/what-was-i-made-for-large-language-models-in-the-real-world/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/what-was-i-made-for-large-language-models-in-the-real-world/#comments Tue, 26 Sep 2023 09:53:04 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/dd4d65c3-bdae-3563-b0c1-b07f8bb86eb4 I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment.

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]]> I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment.

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1063 47 full The Rasputin Effect The Rasputin Effect https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-rasputin-effect/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-rasputin-effect/#comments Wed, 02 Aug 2023 09:06:42 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/cf80b4a2-fa41-338b-903e-846e6bb26149 Global resilience to higher rates

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]]> Global resilience to higher rates

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1255 46 full Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/mr-toad-s-wild-ride/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/mr-toad-s-wild-ride/#comments Tue, 18 Jul 2023 07:45:12 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/b73c2a5a-d670-37d6-b1c5-13b946bd75e8 The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

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]]> The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 747 45 full Letters to the Editor Letters to the Editor https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/letters-to-the-editor/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/letters-to-the-editor/#comments Wed, 14 Jun 2023 08:20:37 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/b15823c6-7ab3-3fdb-8ed2-0f0140882dab Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

]]> Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 977 44 full Too Long at the Fair Too Long at the Fair https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/too-long-at-the-fair/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/too-long-at-the-fair/#comments Tue, 23 May 2023 11:25:50 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/38f515bc-944c-3708-a86c-52d5561e44ec Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while

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]]> Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 570 43 full The Places We Could Go The Places We Could Go https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-places-we-could-go/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-places-we-could-go/#comments Tue, 25 Apr 2023 11:50:18 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/9428b34e-eaff-3e2d-866c-f7c975e021cf Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.

]]> Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 971 42 full Frankenstein’s Monster Frankenstein’s Monster https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/frankenstein-s-monster/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/frankenstein-s-monster/#comments Mon, 10 Apr 2023 10:06:48 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/064e7016-b128-319c-a7ff-bc1a9acbb6f8 Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

]]> Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1124 41 full Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/growing-pains-the-renewable-transition-in-adolescence/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/growing-pains-the-renewable-transition-in-adolescence/#comments Tue, 28 Mar 2023 07:00:00 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/4145292a-09f4-3575-9ed6-77785e8b85de Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.  This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon sequestration, a whydrogen update, the Russia-China energy partnership, methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore, for now.

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]]> Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.  This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon sequestration, a whydrogen update, the Russia-China energy partnership, methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore, for now.

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1126 40 full Winter Heating Winter Heating https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/winter-heating/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/winter-heating/#comments Tue, 21 Feb 2023 10:35:00 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/34db8623-076a-3deb-8591-af4e5114467e The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans.

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]]> The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans.

View transcript with chart references

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 988 39 full American Gothic American Gothic https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/american-gothic/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/american-gothic/#comments Tue, 24 Jan 2023 10:20:39 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/63cd1f38-0c3a-3994-85d1-12a414095f9e The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it

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]]> The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it

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]]> Michael Cembalest false No 560 38 full The End of the Affair The End of the Affair https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-end-of-the-affair/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-end-of-the-affair/#comments Sun, 01 Jan 2023 19:48:50 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/935333eb-1104-350f-83fb-8a5fe55d456b The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins

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]]> The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins

View transcript with chart references 

 

 

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1609 37 full Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/holiday-eye-on-the-market-non-fungible-trainwreck/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/holiday-eye-on-the-market-non-fungible-trainwreck/#comments Thu, 01 Dec 2022 08:09:01 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/485934c7-c9d9-3fcb-8f28-974db6e51f6b Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule

]]> Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 943 36 full A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/a-ch%e2%82%84-hr4346-and-mrna-1273-thanksgiving/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/a-ch%e2%82%84-hr4346-and-mrna-1273-thanksgiving/#comments Wed, 02 Nov 2022 14:14:37 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/aa455a73-1257-3be6-a3f6-6c9e115c3194 In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach, the ISM would bottom in the mid-40’s in December. If so, 3570 on the S&P 500 Index reached in mid-October could actually mark the low for the cycle; such a scenario should not be discounted entirely, and would be consistent with market history.

]]> In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach, the ISM would bottom in the mid-40’s in December. If so, 3570 on the S&P 500 Index reached in mid-October could actually mark the low for the cycle; such a scenario should not be discounted entirely, and would be consistent with market history.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 897 35 full Reruns Reruns https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/reruns/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/reruns/#comments Wed, 19 Oct 2022 09:48:00 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/cce948ac-6b17-3aa1-bb38-7dbf00587e9f Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little relevance for anyone else

]]> Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little relevance for anyone else

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 933 34 full Arrested Development Arrested Development https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/arrested-development/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/arrested-development/#comments Mon, 26 Sep 2022 09:25:00 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/de017b00-0dc4-3f5a-8df0-557bdc20349a Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force

]]> Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 859 33 full On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/on-cpi-sp-ghg-and-the-irs/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/on-cpi-sp-ghg-and-the-irs/#comments Tue, 06 Sep 2022 10:57:08 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/2cfa48d2-a7d1-3587-b929-dc86765e629d Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.

]]> Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1122 32 full Independence Days Independence Days https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/independence-day/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/independence-day/#comments Mon, 27 Jun 2022 09:32:59 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/1969692c-3d0c-3311-9846-e21deaca212d Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry

]]> Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1109 31 full The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-elephants-in-the-room-part-four-whydrogen/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-elephants-in-the-room-part-four-whydrogen/#comments Wed, 15 Jun 2022 07:44:37 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/1520c1ce-20a3-3b6a-8289-88e25655a829 Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one

]]> Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1352 30 full The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-elephants-in-the-room-part-three-electrification-of-home-heating/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-elephants-in-the-room-part-three-electrification-of-home-heating/#comments Thu, 26 May 2022 11:46:51 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/3b65e05d-cdda-3d76-8f73-305977de1042 Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only apply to new buildings?

]]> Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only apply to new buildings?

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 947 29 full Bear Market Barometers Bear Market Barometers https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/bear-market-barometers/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/bear-market-barometers/#comments Tue, 17 May 2022 14:43:06 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/4f2832d2-4b06-30bc-a1cf-c8c265d10659 The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.

]]> The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 644 28 full The Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehicles The Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehicles https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/elephants-in-the-room-part-two-electrification/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/elephants-in-the-room-part-two-electrification/#comments Wed, 11 May 2022 13:37:20 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/13518d94-3a9a-3d63-8f19-6cb1e1669ede We continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users and the transmission quagmire

]]> We continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users and the transmission quagmire

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1173 27 full The Elephants in the Room The Elephants in the Room https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-elephants-in-the-room/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-elephants-in-the-room/#comments Wed, 11 May 2022 13:36:24 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/0a8a058f-c3d2-30fe-b536-edaa09a07839 We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration

]]> We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1100 26 full Surveying the Damage Surveying the Damage https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/surveying-the-damage/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/surveying-the-damage/#comments Tue, 22 Mar 2022 16:11:58 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e2669a58-e8b3-3856-bfa6-755de7cf11d3 Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, the COVID situation in Hong Kong and the latest on ivermectin

]]> Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, the COVID situation in Hong Kong and the latest on ivermectin

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 935 24 full China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/china-and-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/china-and-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/#comments Mon, 07 Mar 2022 14:56:48 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/3bd39320-aefc-3ea4-bbd9-37232fe62242 The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag on the rest of the world as well. But before getting into it, the chart below should hang in the offices of policymakers everywhere. Energy transitions are inherently slow moving, particularly when citizens of countries adopting them erect NIMBY barriers along the way (a topic we cover in this year’s forthcoming energy paper). As we have discussed often, capital spending by the world’s largest energy companies has fallen 75% from peak levels while global demand for oil, gas and coal are all at or above pre-COVID levels. Countries that reduced their supply of thermal energy at a much faster pace than they reduced their demand are paying a very stiff price for that right now. We expect some about-face movements on this in the days ahead.

]]> The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag on the rest of the world as well. But before getting into it, the chart below should hang in the offices of policymakers everywhere. Energy transitions are inherently slow moving, particularly when citizens of countries adopting them erect NIMBY barriers along the way (a topic we cover in this year’s forthcoming energy paper). As we have discussed often, capital spending by the world’s largest energy companies has fallen 75% from peak levels while global demand for oil, gas and coal are all at or above pre-COVID levels. Countries that reduced their supply of thermal energy at a much faster pace than they reduced their demand are paying a very stiff price for that right now. We expect some about-face movements on this in the days ahead.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 757 23 full Webcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investors Webcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investors https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/russia-ukraine-and-implications-for-investors/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/russia-ukraine-and-implications-for-investors/#comments Fri, 04 Mar 2022 15:25:30 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/c95cd4ea-a3bb-3293-b0a2-c856ff492676 Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for investors.

]]> Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for investors.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 3528 22 full Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/risk-unwind-supply-chains-and-the-ukraine/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/risk-unwind-supply-chains-and-the-ukraine/#comments Tue, 15 Feb 2022 12:47:18 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/97b6295f-7365-3cdc-a287-fd3b00257509 Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers

]]> Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 959 21 full Middle Ages Middle Ages https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/middle-ages-1638809543/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/middle-ages-1638809543/#comments Mon, 06 Dec 2021 11:52:43 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/dece1692-463c-38f4-8dd7-ee75d2381069 On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.

]]> On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 809 20 full The Thing The Thing https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-thing-1636995418/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-thing-1636995418/#comments Mon, 15 Nov 2021 11:56:58 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/c272efe0-89ef-39d3-b064-d68be7fdede8 Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.

]]> Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 846 19 full Help Wanted Help Wanted https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/help-wanted-1634741790/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/help-wanted-1634741790/#comments Wed, 20 Oct 2021 09:56:30 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/53a154f6-4361-3e6d-a861-4ece6a07143a “Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. As a result, growth should rebound in 2022, and positions that benefit from reflation should benefit (energy, value and cyclicals). However, while goods bottlenecks will dissipate, the US will still face tight labor markets and rising wages that are at odds with current Fed policy

]]> “Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. As a result, growth should rebound in 2022, and positions that benefit from reflation should benefit (energy, value and cyclicals). However, while goods bottlenecks will dissipate, the US will still face tight labor markets and rising wages that are at odds with current Fed policy

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 927 18 full Dude, Where’s My Stuff Dude, Where’s My Stuff https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/dude-where-s-my-stuff/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/dude-where-s-my-stuff/#comments Mon, 27 Sep 2021 13:03:41 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/67833773-f3a5-3b84-9ebd-056a44249315 The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few months, leading to a global growth bounce in 2022

]]> The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few months, leading to a global growth bounce in 2022

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 821 17 full Spaccine hesitancy Spaccine hesitancy https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/spaccine-hesitancy/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/spaccine-hesitancy/#comments Thu, 19 Aug 2021 11:29:31 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/1cd61f59-d565-3fb9-bd6b-3fd60374fae7 Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity.  An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up understating some critical COVID vaccine efficacy data

]]> Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity.  An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up understating some critical COVID vaccine efficacy data

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 725 16 full Red Med Redemption Red Med Redemption https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/red-med-redemption/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/red-med-redemption/#comments Mon, 26 Jul 2021 13:20:35 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/7fe54675-7537-3759-a5b3-abcb446bf13d  Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth

]]>  Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 699 15 full Thy Brother’s Keeper Thy Brother’s Keeper https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/thy-brother-s-keeper/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/thy-brother-s-keeper/#comments Tue, 13 Jul 2021 07:10:49 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/3b8e4b25-a905-37e3-b4d7-3a433c47bb74 COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).

]]> COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 958 14 full Food Fight: 2021 Private Equity Update Food Fight: 2021 Private Equity Update https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/food-fight-2021-private-equity-update/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/food-fight-2021-private-equity-update/#comments Mon, 28 Jun 2021 08:32:24 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/6501745e-e7fb-3b3a-ab5c-679247e58c3d Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios.  Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise.  We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.

]]> Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios.  Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise.  We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 819 13 full Future Shock Future Shock https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/future-shock/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/future-shock/#comments Wed, 05 May 2021 09:05:46 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/c36d006f-51aa-342d-aa4e-7083cb0ba217 Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consumption. In this year’s energy paper, we review why decarbonization is taking so long: transmission obstacles, industrial energy use, the gargantuan mineral and pipeline demands of sequestration and the slow motion EV revolution. Other topics include our oil & gas views, President Biden’s energy agenda, China, the Texas power outage and client questions on electrified shipping, sustainable aviation fuels, low energy nuclear power, hydrogen and carbon accounting.

]]> Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consumption. In this year’s energy paper, we review why decarbonization is taking so long: transmission obstacles, industrial energy use, the gargantuan mineral and pipeline demands of sequestration and the slow motion EV revolution. Other topics include our oil & gas views, President Biden’s energy agenda, China, the Texas power outage and client questions on electrified shipping, sustainable aviation fuels, low energy nuclear power, hydrogen and carbon accounting.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1380 12 full Absolute Value Absolute Value https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/absolute-value-1618422275/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/absolute-value-1618422275/#comments Wed, 14 Apr 2021 12:44:35 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/dceccc63-e456-3d33-86c5-ff260c02f941 Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID herd immunity, the path to normalcy and rising concerns about thrombosis risks from vector vaccines.

]]> Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID herd immunity, the path to normalcy and rising concerns about thrombosis risks from vector vaccines.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 791 11 full Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/interest-rate-pretzels-and-the-zoom-shock-on-real-estate/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/interest-rate-pretzels-and-the-zoom-shock-on-real-estate/#comments Mon, 15 Mar 2021 11:46:25 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/ceac0780-5cfc-3cdb-b817-f8767d892482 If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t… it’s amazing to see the pretzels that people contort into to convince themselves that rising rates are not a problem for equities. Also: an early look at the Zoom shock on commercial and residential real estate, and the diverging COVID trends in the US vs Europe.

]]> If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t… it’s amazing to see the pretzels that people contort into to convince themselves that rising rates are not a problem for equities. Also: an early look at the Zoom shock on commercial and residential real estate, and the diverging COVID trends in the US vs Europe.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 915 10 full Very short stories Very short stories https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/very-short-stories/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/very-short-stories/#comments Thu, 18 Feb 2021 11:05:54 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/cb89ec4c-0659-3bb2-af15-0c8ec1b059bb Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power outage and the battle for the Republican Party.

]]> Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power outage and the battle for the Republican Party.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1187 9 full Hydraulic Spacking Hydraulic Spacking https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/hydraulic-spacking/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/hydraulic-spacking/#comments Mon, 08 Feb 2021 15:51:32 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/fca5a446-3dfa-30a3-8751-19d5f40001e6 In this month’s note, we look first at the SPAC capital raising boom. Our main focus: returns to date for SPAC sponsors and investors, and the large wealth transfers taking place among SPAC participants. Second topic: Biden’s early stage energy policies (ban on new oil & gas leases on Federal lands, Keystone XL pipeline termination and conversion of Federal fleet to EVs) will probably end up increasing US oil & gas imports more than they reduce emissions.

]]> In this month’s note, we look first at the SPAC capital raising boom. Our main focus: returns to date for SPAC sponsors and investors, and the large wealth transfers taking place among SPAC participants. Second topic: Biden’s early stage energy policies (ban on new oil & gas leases on Federal lands, Keystone XL pipeline termination and conversion of Federal fleet to EVs) will probably end up increasing US oil & gas imports more than they reduce emissions.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1015 8 full Fear of Flying Fear of Flying https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/fear-of-flying-1611075928/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/fear-of-flying-1611075928/#comments Tue, 19 Jan 2021 12:05:28 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/0cb6f525-04d4-37fd-af5a-aee4be00904f Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

]]> Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1109 7 full Outlook 2021: The Hazmat Recovery Outlook 2021: The Hazmat Recovery https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/outlook-2021-the-hazmat-recovery/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/outlook-2021-the-hazmat-recovery/#comments Fri, 01 Jan 2021 08:00:00 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/9eeedc66-b253-351b-9dcf-01f1b6c39336 Michael Cembalest’s views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’t solve.

]]> Michael Cembalest’s views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’t solve.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 623 6 full Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/holiday-eye-on-the-market-the-winter-of-our-discontent/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/holiday-eye-on-the-market-the-winter-of-our-discontent/#comments Mon, 14 Dec 2020 13:23:57 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/cfc97ab5-ec5e-3fbb-aaed-402958ec3d27 The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B Hayes, Richard III, Bob Newhart and the Attorney General of Ohio.

]]> The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B Hayes, Richard III, Bob Newhart and the Attorney General of Ohio.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 890 5 full The Armageddonists, Revisited The Armageddonists, Revisited https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-armageddonists-revisited/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-armageddonists-revisited/#comments Wed, 18 Nov 2020 09:52:24 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/56f59666-f792-35ab-b0ea-9620600c4004 The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021.   However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily: the risk of electoral illegitimacy and Constitutional mayhem on January 6th.

]]> The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021.   However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily: the risk of electoral illegitimacy and Constitutional mayhem on January 6th.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 847 4 full Quiet Flows the Don Quiet Flows the Don https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/quiet-flows-the-don/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/quiet-flows-the-don/#comments Mon, 09 Nov 2020 10:05:18 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/56fb781c-7528-3490-9ffa-99d0db7973fc For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election delivered a clearer referendum on the President himself than on policy issues dividing Democrats and Republicans; it looks like divided government may remain. So, in this week’s Eye on the Market, a (possibly) divided government investor playbook. To conclude, comments on this morning’s Pfizer vaccine news and the road to herd immunity (approval, distribution and acceptance). 

]]> For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election delivered a clearer referendum on the President himself than on policy issues dividing Democrats and Republicans; it looks like divided government may remain. So, in this week’s Eye on the Market, a (possibly) divided government investor playbook. To conclude, comments on this morning’s Pfizer vaccine news and the road to herd immunity (approval, distribution and acceptance). 

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 868 3 full Buckle Up Buckle Up https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/buckle-up-1602601801/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/buckle-up-1602601801/#comments Tue, 13 Oct 2020 10:19:02 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/35c5e2f6-9293-30be-b7fd-efa23c6d2cc7 The problem with states that do not allow pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions, equity market impacts and trends that are being priced in as Democratic Sweep odds rise; Vaccine timing & virus-sensitive businesses.

]]> The problem with states that do not allow pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions, equity market impacts and trends that are being priced in as Democratic Sweep odds rise; Vaccine timing & virus-sensitive businesses.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 759 2 full Election 2020 - Praying for Time Election 2020 - Praying for Time https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/election-2020-praying-for-time/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/election-2020-praying-for-time/#comments Wed, 30 Sep 2020 12:21:37 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/c83dcca1-fa6d-3b39-a5a0-7dcd2a20e613 The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

]]> The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 670 1 full The Needle and the Damage Done The Needle and the Damage Done https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-needle-and-the-damage-done/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/the-needle-and-the-damage-done/#comments Fri, 04 Sep 2020 11:15:48 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/a22c97e7-be51-368b-87f3-ce18571ce0ee The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General.

]]> The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1258 full COVID Research: Charts of the Week (August 17) COVID Research: Charts of the Week (August 17) https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/covid-research-charts-of-the-week-august-17/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/covid-research-charts-of-the-week-august-17/#comments Mon, 17 Aug 2020 15:16:36 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/b0f3cd6b-16a0-33fe-b787-7595aac08bdf US virus decline plateaus; UK is a long way from herd immunity; A post-COVID US housing shift to less dense locations with cheaper land; Lost in Translation: T-cell knowns and unknowns, and financial industry co-conspirators in the war on science.

]]> US virus decline plateaus; UK is a long way from herd immunity; A post-COVID US housing shift to less dense locations with cheaper land; Lost in Translation: T-cell knowns and unknowns, and financial industry co-conspirators in the war on science.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 726 full COVID Research: Charts of the Week COVID Research: Charts of the Week https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/covid-research-charts-of-the-week/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/covid-research-charts-of-the-week/#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2020 14:10:22 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/234cc479-fc54-3d61-8011-4e4a94f2db3b US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in rights and herd immunity.

]]> US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in rights and herd immunity.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 692 full Blinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gap Blinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gap https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/blinded-by-science-the-us-recovery-virus-surge-and-scientific-trust-gap/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/blinded-by-science-the-us-recovery-virus-surge-and-scientific-trust-gap/#comments Tue, 07 Jul 2020 09:38:24 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/a0a1cdd2-cda3-5d17-8c9e-6f2bab44ed1d US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A.

]]> US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 695 full Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/stargazing-tenth-annual-eye-on-the-market-energy-paper/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/stargazing-tenth-annual-eye-on-the-market-energy-paper/#comments Sun, 28 Jun 2020 22:12:39 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/be062e3f-bb8c-51ad-9a77-34e4e2470be8 While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage, reforestation and carbon sequestration required to make an impact; and the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence.

]]> While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage, reforestation and carbon sequestration required to make an impact; and the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1007 full Zoom Room Zoom Room https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/zoom-room/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/zoom-room/#comments Mon, 25 May 2020 21:37:23 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/43e74b6f-1274-5d49-8b61-f58f7f1e3591 In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

]]> In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 952 full Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/ready-or-not-1589215549/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/ready-or-not-1589215549/#comments Mon, 11 May 2020 11:45:49 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/84d46553-e8a7-569b-a735-c079f17bf5cf An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

]]> An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 837 full Covid-19 Update Covid-19 Update https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/covid-19-update-1587150906/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/covid-19-update-1587150906/#comments Fri, 17 Apr 2020 14:15:06 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/031cc9d5-5a4d-5e29-a2ab-13bd214a7e57 Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway.

]]> Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 488 full Man vs Nature Man vs Nature https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/man-vs-nature/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/man-vs-nature/#comments Sun, 29 Mar 2020 18:09:36 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e5347aa8-a266-51e5-9706-d43f1b4a877a Michael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consumer data, the Fed measures, the studies on Chloroquine, and infection outbreak prediction models.

]]> Michael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consumer data, the Fed measures, the studies on Chloroquine, and infection outbreak prediction models.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 632 full COVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity markets COVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity markets https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/covid-19-update-infection-rates-medical-research-and-equity-markets/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/covid-19-update-infection-rates-medical-research-and-equity-markets/#comments Mon, 23 Mar 2020 09:29:19 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/52e3c501-a906-5b10-afa3-0fd82ddcd4ce Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in.

]]> Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 760 full Berning Man Berning Man https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/berning-man/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/berning-man/#comments Thu, 05 Mar 2020 12:26:45 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/32fc0353-0040-5acb-a92d-a3ea9f914dbb An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.

]]> An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1255 full Millions and Trillions Millions and Trillions https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/millions-and-trillions/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/millions-and-trillions/#comments Wed, 05 Feb 2020 23:04:19 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/702f4958-255a-554e-8952-8504e880b05f Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

]]> Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 1037 full Rotten Tomatoes Rotten Tomatoes https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/rotten-tomatoes/ https://eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/e/rotten-tomatoes/#comments Fri, 17 Jan 2020 11:33:06 -0500 eyeonthemarket.podbean.com/1943312b-9306-51ce-9bf2-427b0cb0ab2a Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

]]> Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

]]> Michael Cembalest false No 525 full