Complexity Premia

Episode 75: War, Rates, and Risk: Where to Hide in a Fragile Macro Regime

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 23:37:35 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast by Coolabah Capital, a hosted by Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi, a Senior Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

Chris and Ying Yi break down what rates markets are pricing in Australia and the US, and what that implies for housing, the Aussie dollar, and broader asset valuations. They assess the market impact of escalating conflict in Iran, where capital is flowing in periods of stress, and which assets are proving resilient. The discussion then turns to positioning—how to think about risk, where to hide, and where the most compelling opportunities are emerging in an increasingly volatile global environment.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 74: War in Middle East; Oil Price Shock; Inflation and Interest Rates

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 15:53:53 -0600

Chris and Ying Yi challenge the Reserve Bank of Australia’s claim that policy is “close to balance,” arguing the data instead point to a persistent inflation problem driven by excessive fiscal spending, ultra-low unemployment, and years of overly easy monetary policy. They explain why the RBA may ultimately need to lift rates well above market expectations, why global inflation risks remain underpriced, and how AI capex, energy shocks, and Trump’s economic strategy could reinforce a higher-for-longer rate environment. The discussion concludes with the investment implications: avoid default risk, prioritise liquidity, and recognise why cash and high-quality bonds may now be among the most attractive assets available.

Episode 73: Bonds, Bots, and Base Rates: Where Yields Go Next

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 15:36:51 -0600

In this episode, Chris and Ying Yi run a top-down markets scan: recent performance and the outlook for yields, how hyperscaler AI capex is feeding into bond supply, inflation expectations and term premia, and where value is emerging across major asset classes. They cover the next moves from the RBA and the Fed, implications for housing and growth, and whether AI ultimately proves disinflationary. The conversation closes with the cross-asset tells—USD, gold and bitcoin—and what they’re signalling for the year ahead.

Episode 72: America First, Inflation Second: Trump, Power Politics, and the End of Easy Money

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 16:04:36 -0600

In this episode, Chris and Ying Yi assess what lies ahead for markets in 2026 as Trump’s America First doctrine reshapes global trade, geopolitics, and monetary policy. They argue that tariffs, reshoring, AI-driven capex, and unchecked fiscal spending are reviving inflation risks just as markets price complacency. From Trump’s clash with the Fed to Australia’s fiscal excesses and the RBA’s credibility test, this episode explores why the easing cycle may already be over—and why power, not policy orthodoxy, is once again driving the global order.

Episode 71: From Lucky Country to Lazy Land: When the State Smothers Markets

Sun, 21 Dec 2025 17:55:37 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast by Coolabah Capital, a hosted by Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi, a Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this episode, CJ and Ying Yi debate the rising dominance of the state over markets, arguing that Australia’s declining productivity, capital flight, and ballooning public debt reflect political choices rather than bad luck. They explore why mobile talent and capital are leaving for more competitive jurisdictions, how activist government is eroding incentives to work and innovate, and why history suggests only crisis—not consensus—forces meaningful reform.

Episode 70: AI Capex: The Trillion-Dollar Inflation Time-Bomb

Sun, 30 Nov 2025 17:20:31 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast by Coolabah Capital, hosted by Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi, a Senior Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this episode, Chris and Ying Yi unpack the macro consequences of the AI build-out, exploring how the multi-trillion-dollar data-centre capex boom, rising memory costs, and U.S. reshoring are reshaping inflation, credit markets, and central-bank policy. They also assess why AI-exposed sectors like management consulting are expanding—not contracting—as AI augments human productivity.

Episode 69: The Hybrid Market Shake-Up; Global Shifts; and What’s Next for Aussie Investors?

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 22:57:28 -0600

In this episode, Chris and Ying Yi explore the decline of Australia’s $38.8 billion listed hybrid market and the global implications, including New Zealand’s proposal to phase out hybrid securities and the controversial Credit Suisse hybrid write-off. They discuss the risks and conflicts inherent in hybrid structures, the impact of APRA's decision to phase out bank hybrids, and the emerging alternatives in the market, highlighting the broader implications for both investors and financial stability.

Episode 68: Making Sense of the Fixed Income Paradox; Rising Term Premia; September Market Rally; Aussie Economic Outlook

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 20:54:35 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast by Coolabah Capital, hosted by Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi, a Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi unpack the paradox facing investors today: tight corporate credit spreads against the backdrop of historically high bond yields. They explore how this dynamic is reshaping opportunities across global debt markets, the shifting balance of risk between governments and corporates, and what it all means for returns. The discussion also delves into September’s market rally, Australia’s inflation outlook, and how population growth and housing trends could shape the nation’s economic future.

Episode 67: From the RBA to the Fed: Policy, Politics, and the Hunt for Yield

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 17:16:52 -0600

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi dissect the RBA’s recent rate cut and its ripple effects on housing, productivity, and fiscal policy, before turning to the US where Trump’s tariffs, Fed easing, and central bank independence dominate the debate; rounding out with a deep dive into the hunt for yield, we compare hybrids, bonds, and equities, stressing the trade-offs between risk, return, and the often-underestimated value of liquidity.

Tariff Trades & Shark Tales - Guest Appearance on Without Boundaries

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:07:26 -0600

In this episode, Christopher Joye (Chief Investment Officer, Coolabah Capital) made a guest appearance on Without Boundaries, a podcast from Russell Investments (released on 8 July 2025) and hosted by Jon Eggins. Chris discusses how he successfully traded the Trump administration’s rollout of reciprocal tariffs, how Coolabah combines technology and people to exploit bond mispricings in the search for alpha, and how he once saved a surfer from a bull shark using a search-and-rescue drone.

Don't forget to check out the original podcast on Spotify:

Without Boundaries | Podcast on Spotify

The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Limited (CCII) to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

That Crazy Aussie Shop - Guest Appearance on Without Boundaries

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:07:21 -0600

In this episode, Christopher Joye (Chief Investment Officer, Coolabah Capital) made a guest appearance on Without Boundaries, a podcast from Russell Investments (released on 26 June 2025) and hosted by Jon Eggins. Chris discusses how he built a $15 billion bond shop against the odds, Coolabah’s contrarian approach to trading credit, and his deep ties to rugby in Australia and New Zealand.

Don't forget to check out the original podcast on Spotify:

Without Boundaries | Podcast on Spotify

Episode 66: Middle East Tensions, Trump Tariffs & Australia's Economic Drift – Guest Appearance on Straight Talk with Mark Bouris

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 23:49:50 -0600

In this episode (released on 1 July 2025), Christopher Joye (Chief Investment Officer, Coolabah Capital), made a return guest appearance on the Straight Talk with Mark Bouris podcast to discuss Chris’ outlook on trade developments since April - back when Trump first rattled markets with his tariff threats.

Chris discusses Trump’s unpredictable economic plays, Coolabah’s bond trading strategy, and how quantitative models are being used to read the chaos. There’s no avoiding the geopolitical tension in the Middle East — or the Elon Musk/Trump rift and the impact on US central bank decisions. Chris and Mark dive into Australia’s productivity problem, housing market stress, and the recent NSW budget. And finally, a straight-up conversation on tax reform, the state of leadership in this country, and Australia’s financial future.

Credit: Straight Talk with Mark Bouris.

Don't forget to check out the original podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4h9vxr4EZvw9wnUxw7Xfd0?si=rzmjDHBlRo22DxAC822l5g

Episode 65: Musk–Trump Fallout; RBA to Continue Cutting Rates; Portfolio Performance

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 18:53:05 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast by Coolabah Capital, hosted by Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi, a Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi unpack the fallout from Musk’s attack on Trump’s budget; the US fiscal outlook and implications for markets; how global disinflation, trade wars, and RBA rate cuts intersect; and Coolabah’s portfolio moves in May.

Episode 64: Hedging April Trade War Chaos; Buying $4bn After Bad News Became Priced; Biggest Opportunities Ahead

Mon, 12 May 2025 19:54:29 -0600

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss why Coolabah was extremely bearish heading into April, predicting large equity losses; why the team hedged 15-25% of all its credit risk through to 9 April; why they cut all hedges on this day and went aggressively long, buying over $4bn of bonds thereafter; and what the outlook in this new uncertain world looks like.

Episode 63: Trump’s Tariffs & How the Trade War Will Hit Australia – Guest Appearance on Straight Talk with Mark Bouris

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 17:49:46 -0600

In this episode (recorded on 1 April 2025), Christopher Joye (Chief Investment Officer, Coolabah Capital), made a guest appearance on the Straight Talk with Mark Bouris podcast to discuss Chris’ outlook on where the economy is heading, the real consequences of Trump’s tariffs, why China’s facing serious economic headwinds, and how Australia risks being dragged into the fallout of a global trade war. Chris and Mark also touch on Elon Musk’s play with DOGE, the cracks in Australian politics, and plenty more.

Credit: Straight Talk with Mark Bouris.

Don't forget to check out the original podcast/video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tl4z-e52dYs

Episode 62: Trump’s Tariff Plans; US Fiscal Risks; RBA’s Evolving Rate Outlook; January Returns

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 17:06:36 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast by Coolabah Capital, hosted by Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi, also a Portfolio Manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss January performance, the economic and geopolitical implications of Trump’s proposed tariffs, the US fiscal deficit challenge and Musk’s role in potential government efficiency. The team also unpacks the significance of the RBA’s rate cut and the evolving inflation outlook.

Episode 61: Outlook for 2025; Performance Over Last Year; Trumpian Regime Change; Addressing the Big Questions

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 18:59:56 -0600

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss the outlook for 2025, performance over the last 12 months, what it means to be living in a Trumpian world, and the big questions that lie in wait.

Episode 60: Hybrid Market Dies; RBA Wants to Cut Rates; Portfolio Performance; Australia's Profound Productivity Puzzle

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 23:35:11 -0600

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss why APRA is killing the bank hybrid market, why the RBA is so desperate to cut interest rates, recent portfolio performance, and Australia's profound productivity puzzle.

Episode 59: What Trump Means for Portfolios; Inflation; Interest Rates; and Recent Performance

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 00:06:47 -0600

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss the US election, what President Trump means for asset-allocation and portfolios, the outlook for inflation and interest rates, and recent investment performance.

Episode 58: September Performance; US Economic Strength; Long-Term Interest Rate Moves; APRA Increases Bank Leverage; Trading Regulatory Risk

Wed, 09 Oct 2024 00:26:13 -0600

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including asset-class performance in September, the recent US employment data, movements in long-term interest rates, and the regulatory risks emerging in Australia's banking system, which is impacting bond and hybrid markets, amongst other things.

Episode 57: Great Public vs Private Credit Debate; Killer vs Gorilla; Is Private Credit the Next Sub-Prime Crisis; APRA Tries to Kill Hybrid Market…

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 16:37:07 -0600

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including the great private vs public credit debate between Chris and Andrew Lockhart of Metrics (watch the video here so you can judge who won) and APRA’s controversial proposal to kill off the Aussie bank hybrid market, amongst other things.

Episode 56: $80m Record Home Sale; Is Public Spending Driving Inflation; Reaccelerating in 2025; Dictators vs Democracy; Neo-Socialism

Thu, 29 Aug 2024 16:50:32 -0600

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including record house price sales, whether public spending is driving inflation, the risk of a reacceleration next year, the choice between dictators and democracy, and the rise of neo-socialism.

Episode 55: Volatility Shock; Bond Market Performance; RBA Jawboning; Arrogant Aussies

Tue, 20 Aug 2024 01:21:35 -0600

In this punchy new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including the global financial market turbulence in August, the RBA's jawboning of arrogant Aussies, recent bond market performance and much more.

Episode 54: What a Trump Presidency means for Inflation, Interest rates, Asset Prices & Geo-Politics

Wed, 24 Jul 2024 01:31:49 -0600

In this punchy new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Deputy CIO Roger Douglas discuss a range of important developments, including why investors need to start preparing for how a re-elected Donald Trump will shape inflation, interest rates, and hence asset prices.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 53: Episode 53: Will Fed Cut Rates In September; Sahm Rule Implies US Recession Coming; Why PIMCO Says Private Credit Unattractive; And Best Performing Asset-Classes in 2024

Mon, 15 Jul 2024 23:59:22 -0600

In this new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Deputy CIO Roger Douglas discuss a range of important developments, including whether the Fed will cut rates in September, why the Sahm Rule suggests the US may be heading into recession, why PIMCO says private credit returns are unattractive and 40% of all private credit borrowers may not be able to repay their loans, and which asset-classes have performed best in 2024.

Episode 52: Sovereign Debt Crises are Back; France on the Brink; Aussie States Out of Control; Inflation Numbers Key to Asset Prices

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:20:06 -0600

In this punchy new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including why sovereign debt crises are back, how France is on the brink, why fiscal policy is swamping monetary policy, out-of-control State government spending, and why inflation holds the key to asset prices.

Episode 51: Zombies Drop Like Flies; Default Cycle Erupts; French Bonds Implode; Fiscal Policy Swamps Monetary Policy; May Returns

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 05:56:29 -0600

In this punchy new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments regarding the zombie corporate apocalypse, an ever-worsening default cycle, the explosion in French government bond yields, and the challenge for central banks trying to tame inflation when politicians are spending like crazy…

Episode 50: Stagflation; Kiwi Independence; Private Credit LIT; and the New Sub Debt ETF (BSUB)

Mon, 27 May 2024 17:12:51 -0600

In this punchy new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss Kiwi central bankers running rings around their Aussie brethren, May performance, global private credit, and BetaShares' new major bank subordinated bond ETF, known as BSUB.

Episode 49: Central Banks Bowing to Politicians; Budget Deficits Powering Inflation; Portfolio Performance

Mon, 20 May 2024 18:42:13 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss the latest economic data, ongoing evidence central banks are bowing to politicians, ballooning budget deficits, and portfolio performance. This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 48: April Returns; RBA Struggles with Credibility Crisis; All Eyes on US CPI

Mon, 13 May 2024 18:18:53 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss April performance, the RBA’s brewing credibility crisis, and why all eyes are now turning to the US CPI… This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 47: Flash Podcast; Death of Central Bank Independence; Monetary Mandarins Captive to Political Masters

Tue, 07 May 2024 14:46:18 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss the death of central bank independence as the monetary mandarins become captive to their political masters... This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 46: Punchy Podcast; Aussie & US Inflation Surge; Stock Jockeys on Precipice

Tue, 30 Apr 2024 19:00:14 -0600

In this “flash”, or very short, new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss the surge in Aussie and US inflation, the dramatic increase in risk-free bond yields, and why this puts equities and other risky asset-classes on the precipice…

Episode 45: Punchy Flash Podcast; Global Inflation Surge; What it Means for Asset Prices

Wed, 24 Apr 2024 16:48:54 -0600

In this “flash”, or very short, new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss the recent reacceleration in global inflation and what it means for asset prices.

Episode 44: The Reacceleration of Inflation; What this Means for Equities & Bonds; Portfolio Outlook; Credit Rating Upgrades for Banks; the Conundrum if we get Immaculate Disinflation and CCI is wrong

Tue, 09 Apr 2024 19:14:10 -0600

The reaccleration in inflation
The risk of an unwinding of the coincident bond and equity rally in March
Shock credit rating upgrades to major bank bonds and hybrids that Coolabah forecast in November 2023
Portfolio returns and the outlook for 2024
What happens to equities and bonds if the looming US CPI data confirms Coolabah's sticky services inflation thesis
The conundrum if we get immaculate disinflation and we are wrong about a rebound in core inflation

Episode 43; Existential Investment Questions for 2024; Asset-Allocation Shifts; Stubborn Services Inflation; Interest Rate Risks; Asset-Class Performance

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 20:49:47 -0600

The key investment questions for 2024
Big asset-allocation shifts of out illiquids
Stubborn services inflation driving a reacceleration in core inflation
Interest rate risks are skewed to higher for longer
Asset returns in January and February

Episode 42: Returns in 2023; Outlook for 2024; Markets Priced for Perfection; Key Latent Risks; Capital Structure Relative Value

Wed, 10 Jan 2024 17:32:49 -0600

In this exciting new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including:

What returns were delivered in 2023
The macro and investment outlook for 2024
Why markets appear priced for perfection with little insurance for downside risk
A deep dive on relative value across the capital structure

Episode 41: Government Bond Yields Hit 5%; Buying Bank Bonds Yielding 7.5%; Why Fixed-Rate Bond Duration is Attractive; Fed Makes the RBA Look Like Sleepy Hollow

Tue, 14 Nov 2023 18:05:55 -0600

In this exciting new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments shaping the current economic climate, including:

Why the US Federal Reserve is making the RBA look like sleepy hollow
What government bond yields around 5% pa mean for the pricing of all assets
The emergence of big bank bond yields as much as 7.5% pa
Why massive consumer savings buffers are delaying this hiking cycle
Thinking about optimal asset-allocation between floating-rate and fixed-rate bonds
Why fixed-rate bond duration is looking very attractive
Why this default cycle is getting nastier and creating problems for loans and risky debt securities

Episode 40: Bond Yields Increase Further; New Hybrids; Credit Suisse Reflections; and Optimal Asset-Allocation

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 02:54:09 -0600

In this unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments shaping the current economic climate, including:

APRA’s new discussion paper on ways to improve the functioning of bank/insurer hybrids
Reflections on what the Credit Suisse crisis means for the hybrid market
Market performance in August and September
Rising appetite for fixed-rate bond duration
NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey’s decision to slash debt issuance in FY24
Optimal asset-allocation and portfolio construction

Episode 39: Commercial Property in Crisis; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Non-Banks Under Pump; Bond Market Performance; Optimal Asset-Allocation; Best Trade Ideas; Sticky Inflation and Rates

Mon, 21 Aug 2023 23:14:53 -0600

In this relaxed and unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments shaping the current economic climate including:

Commercial property in crisis
Non-bank lenders under the pump
The mother of all default cycles hits home
Business defaults sky-rocket
Recent bond market performance
What makes this interest rate cycle different
Whether inflation will be sticky and stubborn
Optimal asset-allocation and portfolio construction
Best trade ideas

Episode 38: Winners and Losers in FY23; Best Returns for FY24; Are Rate Hikes Coming to an End; Prepare for a Persistent Pain Trade; Bonds vs Equities

Tue, 11 Jul 2023 17:21:56 -0600

In this highly anticipated, unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments progressing as we head into the 2024 Financial year including :

FY23 performance,
Where the RBA is heading with its cash rates,
How far the global interest rate cycle has to go,
Coolabah’s latest inflation analysis,
Why bond markets keep getting rates wrong,
What will happen to house prices,
Signs of stress in mortgage markets,
Whether now is the time to average into interest rate duration exposures, and
Where to find the best risk-adjusted returns.

Episode 37: Silicon Valley Bank; Credit Suisse; the Transfer of Wealth from Equity to Debt; Aussie Banks win in Flight to Quality; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Consumer Buffers; Best Trades and more

Thu, 27 Apr 2023 00:08:21 -0600

In this new, unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments including:

Recent performance,
The coming US recession,
Ramping up of the default cycle,
The Credit Suisse collapse,
Implications of Silicon Valley and CS for bank bondholders,
Central banks pausing rates,
Huge consumer buffers,
NSW aggressively paying-back debt,
Trades we like, and
The RBA review.

Episode 36: The Coming Recession and Monster Default Cycle; why Illiquidity is Concealing Huge Risks; the Rise of Risk-free Yield and what it Means for Asset-Allocation

Tue, 07 Mar 2023 21:00:41 -0600

In this new, punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments including:

The coming global recession and monster default cycle;
Why illiquidity is concealing huge risks;
The rise of risk-free yield and what it means for asset-allocation;
Why there will be no post crash boom in asset prices;
How the great housing crash has momentarily stalled but is far from over; and
Why RBA Governor Philip Lowe should be replaced by an RBA outsider.

Episode 35: The RBA’s sledgehammer is yet to fall; Bank bonds paying 6.75% pa; Riskier asset-classes to get hosed

Mon, 13 Feb 2023 23:25:26 -0600

In this new, lively episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments including:

How the RBA is wielding Thor's Hammer, and it has really yet to hit home
How we are now getting major bank bonds paying interest rates as high as 6.75% pa
How many asset-classes have yet to be properly smoked by higher rates, including commercial property, residential property, private credit, high yield bonds, venture capital, private equity etc

Episode 34: Reflections on 2022 and Outlook for 2023

Tue, 17 Jan 2023 16:04:24 -0600

In the first episode of the Complexity Premia podcast for 2023, we discuss a range of important developments including:

Performance across all asset-classes in 2022, including equities, bonds, housing and others
Outlook for returns in 2023 and the valuation mispricings we consider to be most attractive
Review of our 2022 forecasts and what we expect from the macroeconomy and financial markets in 2023

Episode 33: Global Recession in 2023; Housing Hammered; Equities Risks; & Bond Market Opportunities

Mon, 12 Dec 2022 22:26:03 -0600

In this new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

Why there will likely be a global recession in 2023 and what this means for markets
Why the Aussie housing market is set to endure a lot more pain as 1-in-4 borrowers have their interest rates more than double
Why there are now very interesting opportunities in bank bond markets following the large increase in risk-free rates and a substantial widening in credit spreads, which has meant that many bonds are paying superior yields to equities and property
What higher cash rates mean for valuations across all asset-classes

Episode 32: Hunting Zombie Companies; the Next Sub-Prime Crisis in High-Yield Debt; the Outlook for Interest Rates; and the Aussie Housing Crash Accelerates

Wed, 14 Sep 2022 19:35:29 -0600

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

How according to Coolabah’s new analysis, hordes of ‘zombie’ companies in Australia and the US are going to die as economies are purged of their weakest enterprises
Why this is related to the explosion in private credit funds and high yield bond issuance, which have provided finance to companies that cannot typically get loans from more conservative and highly regulated banks (think of this as a new sub-prime crisis)
The outlook for interest rates and the various dilemmas confronting the RBA, including an independent review of its role in the policymaking firmament
And how the great Aussie housing crash has continued to accelerate in line with Coolabah’s contrarian forecasts

Episode 31: US Recession; Bond Markets Bounce; Record Aussie Housing Correction; Opportunities Emerge

Mon, 08 Aug 2022 13:48:53 -0600

In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market.

In this heavy-hitting episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

The coming US recession;
The bounce-back in fixed-income/bond markets in July;
The record Aussie housing correction; and
New investment opportunities that are now emerging given the radical increase in interest rates and credit spreads.

Episode 30: How March 2022 officially became the worst month in history for the Aussie bond market.

Thu, 07 Apr 2022 19:07:03 -0600

In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market.

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

The string of losses for bond indices in 2022
The implications of higher interest rates and wider credit spreads for investors
The silver lining for investors getting the best 10 year interest rates on Aussie government bonds
March performance for long-only and long-short strategies
How geopolitical risks have amplified negativity across almost all asset classes
How sky-high vacancies will impact Australia’s jobless rate
Why the NSW Budget could be $9.5bn better off

Episode 29: Whether Crypto is the 21st century Tulip Bulb Bubble?

Mon, 21 Feb 2022 01:14:04 -0600

In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Dr Stephen Parker, another portfolio manager at Coolabah, to discuss whether crypto is a 21st century version of the great Tulip Bulb Bubble. In particular, they chat about:

What the history of financial crises tells us about non-bank innovations that threaten the conventional, government-backed regimes; and
Whether crypto delivers on the value propositions that promoters spruik: namely, being a stable and viable store of wealth outside of centralised governments; acting as a powerful inflation hedge in a world awash with money printing; serving as a tractable medium of exchange; and providing portfolio diversification benefits.

Episode 28: Looking ahead into 2022; Trajectory for inflation, rates and asset prices; NSW slashes debt issuance by $20bn; Machines entering bond market

Sun, 16 Jan 2022 19:39:06 -0600

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

• The trend to higher rates across developed and emerging markets into 2022
• Why the Greenspan-Bernanke put option may have expired and the implications for asset prices including equities and housing
• December bond market performance
• NSW's extraordinary budget turnaround as it pulls a $20 billion rabbit out of its hat
• Whether the bank and corporate bond market is becoming “the next quant revolution”

Episode 27: House prices falling 20% if rates rise; Forecasting global wars; RBA vs bond bandits; October performance

Sun, 07 Nov 2021 15:38:57 -0600

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:
• Why Aussie house prices will fall 20% if the RBA lifts rates by 100 basis points
• Coolabah’s research on using advanced models to forecast global wars
• The battle between the RBA and the bond market bandits
• October bond market performance
• NSW's commendable efforts to slash debt issuance by up to $22 billion

Episode 26: Inflationary headwinds for duration/equities, ESG Activism, Evergrande, APRA closing $139bn CLF, RBA QE3

Mon, 11 Oct 2021 02:39:09 -0600

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

Correlation convergence between interest rate duration and equities;
Portfolio performance across a range of strategies;
Avoiding investing in bonds issued by entities based in and/or controlled by non-democratic countries on an ESG basis;
APRA closing down the $139bn CLF by end-2022 and the consequences for fixed income assets;
Opportunities in government bonds;
RBA QE3; and
ESG activism.

Episode 25: Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is Not What it Seems...

Tue, 22 Jun 2021 07:22:49 -0600

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

Coolabah's latest research forecasting both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia, which we forecast will be by January or February 2022;
When governments will be comfortable re-opening our borders, which we project will be mid 2022; and
How the exodus of foreign workers from Australia has contributed to the largest surge in job vacancies since the 1970s and placed downward pressure on the official unemployment rate, which will likely be reversed-out once the borders re-open, creating complexities for policymakers.

You can download the full research paper on forecasting Australian herd immunity and our borders opening, including charts and figures, here.

Episode 24: Forecasting the Aussie Housing Boom

Fri, 30 Apr 2021 03:16:20 -0600

This special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, who replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds that house prices are expected to appreciate by about 25% over the next few years.

You can download the full research paper with the housing forecasts, including charts and figures, here.

Episode 23: Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits

Sun, 11 Apr 2021 16:14:34 -0600

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

The bond market recovery in March 2021;
Our performance in the month;
Complex issues with bank liquidity coverage ratios;
The RBA’s QE3 program;
Credit market performance;
Upside surprises to Federal and State budget deficits; and
Australia’s housing affordability non-crisis.

Episode 22: The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up the Bond Bandits…

Sun, 14 Mar 2021 04:29:02 -0600

In this short episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

• The biggest bond market bloodbath since 1994;
• Our portfolio performance in February 2021 across a range of strategies;
• The likelihood of macro-prudential constraints being eventually applied to Aussie housing;
• How the RBA’s governor, Phil Lowe, brutally bashed the bond market bandits; and
• The RBA’s QE 3 and 4 programs.

Episode 21: January Returns; RBA QE 1.0, 2.0, 3,0 and 4.0; WWIII; House Bubble Non-Issue; and the Reddit Rambo’s Retail Revolution

Sun, 07 Feb 2021 20:07:11 -0600

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

Our portfolio performance in January 2021 across a range of strategies;
The RBA’s successful QE 1.0 program;
Our forecasts for the RBA’s QE 2.0 program, which were validated in February;
Why the RBA’s cash rate should be -3% to -4%, which will necessitate QE 3.0 and QE 4.0;
The Reddit Rambo’s retail revolution, which is positive, not negative, for equities;
The risk of WWIII erupting over Taiwan; and
Why QE will not blow a housing bubble, as many absurdly claim.

Episode 20: 2020 in Review; Outlook for 2021; Housing Forecasts; Big Left and Right Tail Risks & More

Wed, 06 Jan 2021 05:13:52 -0600

Happy New Year listeners! We are really sorry for the long delay since our last episode, but we have been super busy managing our clients’ money! In this action-packed episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, which is our first for 2021, we discuss a range of issues, including:

Our portfolio performance in 2020;
Our forecasts for 2021, including housing, unemployment, QE and macro markets generally;
The burgeoning conflict between democracy and autocracy; and
Our thoughts on the big left- and right-tail risks, including the prospect of major power conflict.

Episode 19: Traders vs Investors; Why Markets are Ignoring Second Waves; Central Banks Disintermediating Markets; Performance; and Turning Beta into Alpha

Tue, 25 Aug 2020 00:44:18 -0600

In the latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of issues, including:

how you can turn beta into alpha by anticipating policymakers' behaviours;
whether there is a difference between traders and investors (or are they actually doing exactly the same thing over different horizons);
why markets have been ignoring the second COVID-19 waves;
the long-term impact of central banks disintermediating markets, and whether Western statism is ironically coming to resemble socialist central planning;
forecasting Victoria’s COVID-19 peak in late July; and
recent portfolio performance.

Episode 18: The Next Big Pivot Point for Markets – COVID-19 Vaccines; June Performance; Liquidity in Bond Markets; NAB’s Landmark Unlisted Hybrid Deal; And More

Fri, 17 Jul 2020 17:54:17 -0600

In the latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of issues, including:

why the emergence of effective COVID-19 vaccines will be the next big regime change for markets with both Moderna and Oxford University leading the charge towards the delivery of a solution before the end of this year;
a detailed discussion of markets in June and over the last three months, including our trading activity which has encompassed more than $9.3 billion of purchases and sales over the last 6-7 months;
analysis of the widely misunderstood subject of bond/credit market liquidity, or the lack thereof, which has become the topic de jour in fixed-income in 2020; and
and a review of NAB’s landmark new unlisted hybrid deal, including its subsequent secondary market trading performance, which has surprised many.

Episode 17: Mean-Reversion; Don’t Fight the Fed; Aussie Housing; Best Investment Opportunities; Cold War 2.0

Tue, 23 Jun 2020 16:10:20 -0600

In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including: the best investment opportunities in fixed-income markets after a massive rally over April and May; the battle between central banks and fundamentals; the outlook for Aussie housing; and Cold War 2.0.

Episode 16: Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing

Wed, 13 May 2020 07:45:05 -0600

In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including: the impact of COVID-19 on markets; our approach to thinking through and capitalising on this 1-in-100 year shock; the outlook for investors and major risks, such as US-China relations, global debt crises, EU disintegration and the Aussie housing market...

Episode 15: Coronavirus Special, Central Bank Action, Next Crisis To Be Triggered by Subprime Corp Loans, Aussie Housing

Sun, 08 Mar 2020 22:19:18 -0600

In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including the current market meltdown that is rapidly emulating aspects of the GFC and which will eventually present some once-in-a-generation buying opportunities:

We discuss how COVID-19 is a classic case of global market failure driven by extreme information asymmetries, which Chris has repeatedly explained in his AFR columns over the last couple of weeks;
How central banks need to move quickly to provide a liquidity bridge to keep markets functioning given investors are struggling to realistically price existential pandemic risks (again as outlined in Chris' AFR columns of late);
How the biggest risk is if central banks delay or under-club their response as lenders of last resort, which markets will punish, especially given they are rapidly depleting their prized credibility;
Why the next subprime crisis will likely be triggered by subprime or high yield corporate bonds, which has been another key theme of ours for a while now; and
Update on our views regarding the Australian residential property market, which we expect to remain strong.

Episode 14: 2019 Performance Wrap-up; Coolabah's Approach to Life; Coming of a Dangerous Decade; Rise of Zombie Companies; Lunch with One of the World's Biggest HF Managers

Thu, 23 Jan 2020 03:03:00 -0600

Happy New Year! In our first episode for 2020, we discuss: the 2019 performance wrap-up; a little bit more about Coolabah and our approach to life; the coming of a dangerous decade; the rise of zombie companies; and lunch with one of the world’s biggest hedge fund managers.

Episode 13: Bond Market Returns in 2019; Welcoming Pinnacle to our Family; Human Frailties of the World's Greatest Investor; RBA vs the Govt over Fiscal Policy and More...

Mon, 16 Dec 2019 05:35:57 -0600

In this episode we discuss: the bond market’s performance in 2019; welcoming Pinnacle to our family; the human shortcomings of the world's greatest investor, Jim Simons; Phil Lowe vs Josh Frydenberg over fiscal policy; the price of forcing banks to become crime fighters; and the revolution hitting financial advice.

Episode 12: Competition Facing the Big Banks; Is High Yield Debt Just Equities in Disguise; Aussie Housing; RBA Rate Cuts & QE; Looking Into Next Year

Thu, 14 Nov 2019 01:32:15 -0600

In this episode we discuss: conviction vs humility; markets and the major bank senior rally; why big banks have never faced more competition; whether high-yield debt is just equities in disguise; the latest developments in the housing market; whether the RBA will keep cutting rates, and more on QE; and why the next year could be very good.

Episode 11: Keen vs Joye; Is Capitalism Dead; CBA's New Hybrid Deal; Hybrids vs Foreign High Yield; the Coming of Aussie QE and Much More

Wed, 09 Oct 2019 05:31:12 -0600

In this long overdue episode we discuss: the latest developments in markets; Chris Joye's housing debate with doomsayer Dr Steve Keen; the new CBA hybrid deal; whether investors should switch from hybrids to foreign high yield; the RBA's rate cut and the coming of Aussie QE; whether traders are smarter than investors and why capitalism is dead…

The Youtube link to the Keen vs Joye housing war can be found here.

Episode 10: Why the Best Investors Use Shrinks; Magellan’s Revolution; Trade Wars Rumble On; Why Aussie Bonds Pay Higher Outright Spreads; the Power of Questioning the Consensus and more

Fri, 16 Aug 2019 02:12:23 -0600

In this episode we go hammer-and-tongs on a range of topical issues, including: what happened in bond markets in July and August; why the world’s best investors use shrinks; Magellan’s revolution; the ongoing trade war; why Aussie bonds pay higher outright credit spreads; Westpac’s victory over ASIC on responsible lending; and the power of questioning the consensus…

Episode 9: “Bail-In-Able” Debt Tsunami Special – Markets In June & July; The TLAC Tidal-Wave; How Early Deals Performed; Can Banks Fund $90bn of Bail-In-Able Bonds; And Thinking About Fair Value

Mon, 22 Jul 2019 00:38:37 -0600

In this special episode focussing on the “bail-in-able” debt tsunami we discuss: markets in June and July; the TLAC tidal-wave; how early deals performed; what APRA got wrong; whether banks can fund the $90bn of issuance; where fair value lies; and much, much more…

Episode 8: QE Special – Housing Recovery, RBA Rate Cuts, How Much Banks Pass Through, Trading RBA Quantitative Easing (QE), And Search For Yield

Thu, 27 Jun 2019 06:40:32 -0600

In this episode we will discuss: whether the housing market is recovering; when the RBA will cut rates; what the banks will pass through; if and when RBA Quantitative Easing (QE) comes; the asset-class impacts; the search for yield dynamic; and much more…

Episode 7: Trade War Special – Trump and Xi’s Game of Thrones, and May Market Performance Update

Tue, 04 Jun 2019 04:45:57 -0600

In this episode we will discuss: performance across bond markets in another riveting month in which returns in some sub-sectors were extremely high; and the great 21st century trade battle between the incumbent hegemon, America, squaring off against the would-be usurper, China, in the first true super-power clash that we have seen since the Cold War...

Episode 6: ScoMo Wins, Impact on Investments, Housing Market Turning, RBA/APRA rate cuts, Best Pieces of Capital Structure, RMBS Opportunities, ScoMo’s Agenda

Mon, 27 May 2019 01:05:00 -0600

In this episode we will discuss: recent developments in financial markets; the consequences of Scott Morrison’s (unsurprising) election victory for investors; the most attractive parts of the capital structure; rate cuts via APRA and the RBA; whether the housing market is turning; how much the housing market might bounce by if the RBA cuts; why ScoMo won; emerging opportunities in RMBS; and what we think ScoMo’s agenda will involve.

Episode 5: Trade War Erupts, Coming of Aussie QE, End of Aussie Housing Correction, How Currency Hedging and Duration Distort Returns and More…

Tue, 14 May 2019 05:27:29 -0600

In this episode we will discuss: recent developments in financial markets; the eruption of hostilities between the US and China in the trade war; the tricks and traps of how currency hedging and interest rate duration distort returns from credit; the first major bank subordinated bond issue since June 2018; the coming of Aussie quantitative easing (QE); what this means for Aussie housing; and why we are getting more positive on Aussie RMBS…

Episode 4: The Big Credit Rally, Is the Housing Bust Over, Will RBA Engage in Unconventional Policy, Could ScoMo Win, Rising RMBS Risks, ALP Franking Failures, and Magellan on LIC Risks

Mon, 29 Apr 2019 06:05:42 -0600

In this episode we will: discuss the huge credit rally; make the case that the housing bust could be about to end; reveal that the RBA is considering unconventional monetary policy; argue (again) that ScoMo has a much better chance of winning the election than betting markets and political experts think; canvass rising RMBS risks as house prices plunge; explain why the Senate will probably kill the ALP’s franking policy as it stands; and consider Magellan’s entry into the simmering LIC debate.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 3: Budget Surplus, Could Banks Cut for RBA, RMBS Risks, Great Housing Debate, Unisuper investing $1.3bn in Hybrids and More

Sat, 30 Mar 2019 05:13:28 -0600

In this episode we will: discuss analysis showing the government’s fiscal budget is already in surplus and what this means for the looming election; reflect on the heated and nationally televised debate on housing that Chris had with an economic extremist (see the Youtube video here); review new research showing a dramatic surge in the risks of residential mortgage-backed securities or RMBS (see the research here); examine Unisuper’s decision to plough $1.3bn into bank hybrids; analyse APRA’s latest statements on its important TLAC policy, which could reshape bank capital structures; and consider the wave of Listed Investment Companies (LICs) coming to market and some of the hazards smart investors have raised.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 2: Will the RBA Blow the Bubble Back-Up, the ESG Alpha Mirage, and Much More

Fri, 15 Mar 2019 15:30:17 -0600

In this episode we will: debate whether the RBA is going to blow the housing bubble back up with interest rate cuts; discuss new RBA research that blames the central bank for the rapid house price growth between 2012-2017 (contrary to what the governors have claimed); present Coolabah's pioneering quant research exploring whether you can use ESG filters to increase alpha and reduce beta in equities and bonds (you can download the paper here); examine what has driven the massive recent reduction in bank funding costs and the bid for the major banks' senior bonds; explain the game-changer that is the Fed's new inflation averaging regime, which has huge consequences for asset prices; and dissect the explosion in listed investment companies that fund managers are using to pay over $150 million in conflicted sales commissions to raise money from mums and dads for complex products that would never be allowed under the standard FOFA laws.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 1: Welcome to the Complexity Premia Podcast

Sun, 03 Mar 2019 23:17:16 -0600

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.