Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Ep. 155: Are We Really Skewed With Inflation?

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 18:17:21 -0400

The Inflation Guy starts with a general comment on where markets are and what to look for as we contemplate the next move. But the really meaty bit is where he talks about recent Fed research (finally concluding what the Inflation Guy has been telling you for years) about the skewness of the distribution of price changes in the CPI suggesting that maybe there is something more going on than a placid and obedient return to 2%...

NOTES

Is the Inflation Process in Advanced Economies Different After the Pandemic? (https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/is-the-inflation-process-in-advanced-economies-different-after-the-pandemic-20260330.html)

Skewness warrants caution as Trimmed Mean PCE inflation eases (https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0416)

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2026)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2026/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2026/)

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/ or email me at InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com

An inflation-indexed currency you can now mint from our website: https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 154: AI, Iran, and CPI

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 15:08:57 -0400

Thank you for all the cards and letters. The Inflation Guy dropped in today, to talk about the AI Menace as well as yesterday's CPI report and the near-term trajectory of inflation. This is not a return to a full-time podcasting schedule, but it's at least a positive sign!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2026)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2026/03/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2026/ )

Apollo-sourced chart on New Business Formation: https://inflationguy.blog/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/apollo-newbiz-formation-chart.jpg

Robert J. Shiller: Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events (https://amzn.to/4lqIXFv)

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Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

An inflation-indexed currency you can now mint from our website: https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 153: This Month's CPI Report - Did I Say 'Garbage' Too Much?

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 11:16:42 -0500

It's hard to believe we waited two months for that. The Inflation Guy pulls no punches here. Although he is a serious defender of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' CPI team, he did not mince words in talking about today's report. But it's still data, and the IG tells you what it means.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (November 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/12/18/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-november-2025/ )

Blog on hedonic adjustment “Why Hedonic Adjustment in the CPI Shouldn’t Tick You Off” https://inflationguy.blog/2025/12/10/why-hedonic-adjustment-in-the-cpi-shouldnt-tick-you-off/

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

An inflation-indexed currency you can now mint from our website: https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 152: This Month's CPI Report - See You in ... December?

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 11:52:30 -0400

This CPI report is potentially unusual and extra-valuable since there is a chance there won't be a CPI released next month. It's a good thing, then, that the current data was a little softer-than-expected since that helps to lock in Fed eases (although the Fed doesn't really care about the exact level of inflation any more as long as it isn't clearly headed higher). Hear the Inflation Guy break it down this month, and savor it in case the BLS doesn't release the CPI next month!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/10/24/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2025/ )

Blog on fallback mechanism for CPI: “What Happens if CPI Isn’t Released?” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/09/27/what-happens-if-cpi-isnt-released/

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

An inflation-indexed currency you can now mint from our website: https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 151: SupplAI Creates its Own Demand

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 18:07:32 -0400

The Inflation Guy was sorely tempted to title this podcast, "Two Beautiful Women," because he's not above being clickbaity. But he also cannot resist a pun, and that idea won. This episode after all is about AI, and one of the 'leakages' that people don't tend to think about but that is evident in the world at large when you look at how people are using AI. The Inflation Guy explains. He doesn't talk much about inflation in the episode - but if AI is exaggerated, then all of the people who say that AI will solve the inflation problem...are building their house of faith on sand.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

An inflation-indexed currency you can now mint from our website: https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 150: Impasse, Idleness, Inconsistency, and Independence

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 18:05:05 -0400

But not 'Incompetence'! We didn't use the word 'Incompetence' in the title of the episode!

We have to admit, it was tempting. But of all of the examples of incompetence that spring to mind from the last thirty-five years the Inflation Guy has been watching markets and politics and economists, the current examples just don't rank in the top tier. Now, the COVID years...that was some good incompetence there! Not that we are nostalgic for those years.

Anywho, in this episode the Inflation Guy tackles three mostly-unconnected topics. The government shutdown, the question of whether rising GDP growth is inconsistent with weaker employment growth, and the uniqueness (or lack thereof) of current 'attacks' on the 'independence' of the Federal Reserve. Enjoy.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2025/ )

Blog about “What Happens if CPI Isn’t Released?” (https://inflationguy.blog/2023/09/27/what-happens-if-cpi-isnt-released/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

An inflation-indexed currency you can now mint from our website: https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 149: This Month's CPI Report - Get Comfortable with Being Uncomfortable

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 10:44:30 -0400

In his role as middle-school cross country coach, the Inflation Guy is fond of reminding runners that they should "get comfortable with being uncomfortable." The same, it seems, is true of inflation! From the lens of median inflation, it has leveled out around 3.6% and there are no real signs and no real math that bring it lots lower any time soon. But more interesting perhaps is how the Fed reaction function has changed. Listen to the Inflation Guy explain why the CPI report should still be important to investors even though it may no longer be very important to policymakers.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2025/ )

Blog about the Fed’s abandonment of the important part of inflation targeting: “The Fate of FAIT was Fated” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/09/02/the-fate-of-fait-was-fated/ )

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Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 148: This Month's CPI - Get Used to High 3s

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 12:34:27 -0400

For the first time in a while, core CPI exceeded expectations. For the first time in a while, core services and core goods both accelerated on a year-over-year basis. But what is not at all new is that median inflation is settling in the high-3% range, roughly 3.65% y/y with today's report. Get used to it! And get used to the Federal Reserve easing anyway...

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/08/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

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Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 147: Out of Sync

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 19:20:06 -0400

How important is 30% of the CPI? How much should we care about the summary dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Is this a sign that the end of government credibility (okay, stop laughing) is nigh?

The Inflation Guy addresses these questions and also muses about the out-of-sync pendulums that are currently swinging in our economy and the effect of these on the overall outcomes.

NOTES

Video of spontaneous synchronization: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T58lGKREubo

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 146: This Month's CPI Report - Not Getting to 2%

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 11:35:07 -0400

It's time for the monthly CPI report! While the core CPI was another (small) downward surprise, the Inflation Guy in this podcast explains why the internals of the number (and the optics going forward, see Ep. 145) are actually not very good and that there is not at the moment any clear path to get to the Fed's 2% inflation goal. He discusses the policy implications of that - along with the effect of tariffs and of 'mass' deportations.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/07/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 145: Beware the Coming Inflation Bounce

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 17:09:41 -0400

The Inflation Guy does not typically do a CPI preview episode, and this isn't one either. However, he felt it was important to telegraph to investors who aren't actually inflation traders that there are some non-tariff reasons that the CPI is about to re-accelerate for at least the balance of the year. Even though this is known (and priced into inflation swaps), there's every chance that when it happens it will surprise some people and others will attribute to tariffs what should be attributed to simple mathematics. This is a brief but important episode to set expectations for the coming few months.

NOTES

Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ )

Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

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Interested in becoming a customer of Inflation Guy? https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Check out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency – stable in real space! https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 144: Socialism and Inflation

Thu, 26 Jun 2025 15:22:14 -0400

If this keeps up, we might all long to have the machines take over.

In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the victory of a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral primary this week - and, even if we would like to hope that he has no chance of winning in the general election...he does. Ergo, we should probably think a little bit about what socialism means for inflation.

Really, nothing about socialism is great. And that includes inflation.

NOTES

Monetarium website on Reserve.org: https://reserve.org/monetarium/

“Shortages are Unmeasured Inflation” blog post: https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ )

Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/

Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 143: This Month’s CPI – Where Oh Where Have the Tariffs Gone?

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 11:28:07 -0400

Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ )

Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/

Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 142: This Month's CPI Report - The Sky is NOT Falling (at Least, Not Yet)

Tue, 13 May 2025 11:07:07 -0400

Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to "Liberation Day," we have yet to see any meaningful effect in prices. That isn't to say that it won't happen, only that it hasn't yet. But that doesn't mean there aren't really exciting things happening in the CPI. To hear about the backdrop, and what he's seeing in the numbers, tune in to this episode of the Inflation Guy Podcast!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/05/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-april-2025/ )

Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/

Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 141: Policy Volatility and Systemic Adaptability

Fri, 02 May 2025 13:52:32 -0400

For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety recession the Inflation Guy has been talking about will be something more like a Hanging Gardens of Babylon-variety recession) and from an inflationary standpoint (fragility on the supply side makes upward thrusts in inflation more normal). Hopefully, his prior assumptions were right and these concerns are misplaced...but they should be considered.

NOTES

“Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming – Apollo” https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mass-layoffs-in-trucking-and-retail-are-coming-apollo

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (April) https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504

Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/

Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Check out the other website! https://usdicoin.com/

Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 09:04:40 -0400

Today's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money.

Please read the important disclaimer below.

NOTES

USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/

Press Release Noting Launch of USDi Coin: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1EJFkc0juTxU2mBEpB4qa6aKIuOUhF_GE

Michael C. Lovell and Robert C. Vogel, “A CPI-Futures Market” (1973) https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260096?journalCode=jpe

Milton Friedman, “Financial Futures Markets and Tabular Standards” (1984) https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830554

William W. Jennings, “Disaggregated TIPS: the case for disaggregating inflation-linked bonds into bonds linked to narrower CPI components Slicing and Dicing TIPS” (2006) https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747206002551

Ep. 18: Cash is an Option Whose Cost is Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-18-cash-is-an-option-whose-cost-is-inflation/

Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-32-the-remarkable-story-of-inflation-futures/

Ep. 56: A New Way to Trade Inflation https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-56-a-new-way-to-trade-inflation/

Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-98-will-you-be-able-to-trade-medical-care-inflation-soon/

Ep. 102: Gold and Crypto - Are Either, or Both, Real? https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-102-gold-and-crypto-are-either-or-both-real/

Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-113-real-world-crypto-escapades-concerns-threats-and-promises/

Blog callback: “A Price-Linked USD” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/

Blog callback: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Important Disclaimer: The USDi Coin is offered only to accredited investors. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the instrument described herein may differ materially from those discussed here. This information is as of the date indicated, is not complete nor has it been audited, and does not contain certain material information about the products to be offered, including important disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment. Neither Enduring Investments, USDi Partners, nor their principals, employees, agents or authorized representatives, makes any warranty or representation, whether express or implied, or assumes any legal liability for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information disclosed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 139: This Month's CPI Report – Uncertainty Reigns

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 11:19:39 -0400

Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil.

Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and we are seeing that. It also has implications for inflation itself, through velocity, and for the hurdle to make policy moves as a central banker. Join the Inflation Guy as he untangles today's CPI report, and a lot of the surrounding noise.

NOTES

Episode callback: “Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-137-drug-prices-and-the-most-favored-nation-clause/

Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 138: Reciprocal Tariff Day and the Adaptability of Manufacturing

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 15:04:05 -0400

Tomorrow, April 2nd, is 'Reciprocal Tariff Day,' when the US will impose tariffs designed to equalize (how well, no one knows) the tariffs faced by foreign imports to the US with the tariffs faced by US exports to other countries. From everything you read, this is going to be a calamity. But the Inflation Guy has a different take, and it comes from an understanding of how manufacturing actually works - with job 1 always being Make Sure the Worst Outcome Doesn't Happen.

Listen to this (unscripted!) episode to hear what he means by this.

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 12:31:50 -0400

The pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumers in other countries pay for the same medications; in 2020 President Trump called for a Most-Favored-Nation clause to be applied to drug companies but his first term ended before he could pursue it. Expect the topic to come up again...and this time, you'll understand why it's a great cudgel but doesn't really address the problem!

NOTES

Inflation Guy Blog Post: “Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations” https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 136: This Month's CPI Report – Settling in, Too High

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 11:36:15 -0400

It's time for the monthly CPI report, and this one seems apiece with other economic happenings recently: December and January were all over the place, but in February the inflation numbers are settling back down. The problem is, they're settling in at too high a level, and it gets harder and harder to see how we are going to get inflation back to the Fed's target. Not that the Fed really cares very much, and the Inflation Guy explains why that is.

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/03/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2025/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 135: Is the DOGE Dividend Inflationary?

Tue, 04 Mar 2025 15:43:59 -0500

We are moving too fast, with too many topics! The Inflation Guy hits on four different topics today before running out of time and deferring some until the next episode. Today, (a) Is the 'DOGE Dividend' inflationary? (b) How impactful are 25% tariffs on the price level? (And ironically, taxpayers might actually make money in real terms on the deal). (c) Are we going to get a recession, and what does that even mean these days? (d) Why are implied volatilities so low with policy uncertainties so high?

More next week...

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ )

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Ep. 134: What if Prices Really Were Stable?

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 16:23:47 -0500

Today the Inflation Guy answers a listener's question, which is 'if the US were ever to have sustained 0% inflation, what would the effects be?' It is a simple question but it leads to some profound thoughts about what price stability is, and what it means...if anything.

Of course, you have to listen to the Inflation Guy's weekly gripe first, but you can fast forward through that part. (It makes him feel good so we leave it in.)

NOTES

Nalebuff and Ayres Book: Why Not?: How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve Problems Big And Small https://amzn.to/4hKssS8

Blog Post on interest rates and inflation: “Enough with Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/06/21/enough-with-interest-rates-already/

Blog Post on Corn: “Corn Prices – Has the Correction Run its Course?” https://inflationguy.blog/2022/09/21/corn-prices-has-the-correction-run-its-course/

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ )

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Ep. 133: This Month's CPI Report – I Guess We Are Still Transitory-ing?

Wed, 12 Feb 2025 12:34:56 -0500

It's the monthly inflation report for January's CPI, and this one was surprising. It would have been alarming, except that we have been through five years of inflation unlike anything we had seen since the 1980s. So, we're jaded. The Inflation Guy walks through today's report and considers wildfires, tariffs, and most-favored-nation status. A tour de force!

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (January 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/02/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-january-2025/ )

Blog on "Drug Prices and Most-Favored-Nation Clauses: Considerations" from August 2020 https://inflationguy.blog/2020/08/25/drug-prices-and-most-favored-nation-clauses-considerations/

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Ep. 132: Crazy is Anti-Inflationary

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 16:52:57 -0500

Today's episode is somewhat shorter than the norm, since last week's episode was a little longer than the norm. Today, the Inflation Guy notes that M2 money velocity declined very slightly in Q4, and points out a weird - but possibly important - effect that could have the perverse effect of dampening inflation slightly. (To be sure, the Inflation Guy thinks there are other, larger forces at play but this is an interesting one that is worth highlighting in case it continues!)

NOTES

Prior Podcasts from the IG on Velocity:

Ep. 10: A High-Velocity Tour of Velocity (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-10-a-high-velocity-tour-of-velocity/ )
Ep. 34: Velocity Turns Higher...Whoops! (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/velocity-turns-higherwhoops/ )
Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-50-what-the-money-velocity-comeback-means-for-inflation-and-investors/)
Ep. 108: Revisiting Velocity - Myths and Reality (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-108-revisiting-velocity-myths-and-reality/ )

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!

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Ep. 131: How Tariffs Affect You - Three Things You Maybe Didn't Know

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 17:35:18 -0500

It seems every day these days we hear about another tariff being applied to a trading partner of the U.S. (or, more usually, being threatened). The usual media reaction to these threats are something along the lines of saying "Oh my sainted aunt. This sort of talk gives me the vapors" because it is so, so, so bad. Tariffs are archaic shibboleths that no truly modern economist would ever support.

Come to think of it, that sounds like the archaic notion that money causes inflation. But we digress.

The Inflation Guy in today's episode discussed three things about tariffs that you might have thought you knew...and certainly everyone else seems to think they know...but which don't really work that way in the real world.

NOTES

Yesterday’s Inflation Guy blog on this topic: “Trump Tactical Targeted Tariffs: A Reminder of the Impact of Tariffs” https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/29/trump-tactical-targeted-tariffs-a-reminder-of-the-impact-of-tariffs/

Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist, Vol 36, No 1, 1992, pp 44-52. , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915287

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ )

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Ep. 130: The Long-Term Effects of 4% Inflation vs 2%

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 13:51:27 -0500

Today the Inflation Guy answers a reader question. What are the long-term effects of having 4% inflation compared with 2% inflation? Does that small increase in the inflation rate have any important ramifications?

Hooo yeah you betcha it does. The Inflation Guy goes through a number of them, and feels like he probably left some out in the process.

Along the way, he also had some choice remarks about why the Federal Reserve next week and over the next few months, even though it has no economic reason to cut rates, may well still do so. Find out why.

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!

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Ep. 129: This Month's CPI Report – This One Isn’t the Story

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 11:18:53 -0500

Let's face it: there is nothing more exciting than the monthly consumer inflation report. Don't we all agree on that? Is there any day that we collectively brace the day with such enthusiasm as the day the CPI report comes out? Surely not.

However, this month...the December CPI...just isn't the story. The Inflation Guy today dutifully addresses the data, but more importantly focuses on how the data is surely going to be different going forward due to many, many causes for inflection that are operating right now. This will change data, markets, and narratives. The IG guides you through it all!

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (December 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/01/15/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-december-2024/ )

Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-127-the-point-of-inflation-inflection/ )

Website for California Wildfire official tracking (https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents )

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Ep. 128: Will Wildfires Change the Inflation Trajectory?

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 17:09:54 -0500

It's 2025, and the Inflation Guy - like inflation itself, actually - is not yet dead. After a one-month hiatus, he kicks off the new year with a quick review of the current state of affairs and then addresses the question of whether the catastrophic California wildfires will help push inflation higher. It isn't as if that is the most-important thing to think about, when it comes to those fires - but it is worth thinking about all of the implications of large-scale disasters.

ERRATUM- IG refers to Bullard. Brain freeze. He meant Waller, a current member of the Board of Governors at the Fed.

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (November 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/12/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-november-2024/ )

Last 2024 Podcast “Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-127-the-point-of-inflation-inflection/ )

Old Blog: “Some Effects on Inflation from Harvey and Irma” (from 2017) (https://inflationguy.blog/2017/09/11/some-effects-on-inflation-from-harvey-and-irma/ )

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Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection

Tue, 03 Dec 2024 17:21:02 -0500

For more than a year now, the story about inflation and why inflation was almost certainly going to stay high (in the 'high 3s, low 4s' on median inflation, as the Inflation Guy has long held) was a story about the guaranteed rebound in money velocity. That has been an easy story and forecasting medium-term inflation has been consequently pretty easy.

That is changing.

Velocity has made a round trip to where it was prior to COVID. And that means that the underlying drivers of inflation going forward are changing. In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains what that means for the future of inflation.

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (October 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/11/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-october-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ Now just $29.99/quarter!

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Ep. 126: Firing Federal Workers is a Positive Supply Shock

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 10:09:42 -0500

This is one of the rare podcast episodes that you might consider listening to at 75% speed instead of 125%. Because the Inflation Guy is feeling feisty, and when he feels feisty he talks fast. And he's feisty because today (why today, of all days? No one knows) he is especially triggered by the bad economics going around that suggests that mass layoffs of Federal employees would be recessionary and very painful. Au contraire, says the Inflation Guy (or he would say that, were he French) - firing Federal workers is a positive supply shock.

Listen, and find out in what way laying off Federal workers is like mass deportations of illegal immigrants.

NOTES

Goodhart, Charles and Manoj Pradhan, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival (Product link: https://amzn.to/493QbJK )

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (October 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/11/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-october-2024/ )

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Ep. 125: This Month's CPI Report - Premature Accommodation

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 11:14:29 -0500

Well, it was always a risk for the Fed to start their rate-cutting path with a highly-unusual 50bps cut, while inflation was still high. But after today's CPI report, that unusual (some would say suspiciously political-looking) move puts the Fed in a difficult bind. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the CPI report and explains how the Fed-Congress quid-pro-quo that has existed for decades now puts the FOMC in a sticky situation.

NOTES

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

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Ep.124: Market Thoughts After a Trump Victory

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 15:18:36 -0500

Contrary to a lot of expectations, we already seem to know the basic shape of American government going forward, with Donald Trump as President with a Republican Senate and (likely) a marginally Republican House. In this podcast episode, the Inflation Guy addresses the initial market moves, which he characterizes as the "Trump caricature" response, and explains which of these moves make sense, and which are likely senseless knee-jerk reactions to cartoonish representations of Trump's likely priorities come January 20th.

NOTES

Blog post on sizing positions when volatility changes: “Kicking Tails” (Feb 2018) https://inflationguy.blog/2018/02/12/kicking-tails/

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2024/ )

Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 123: This Month's CPI Report - Inflation Peek-a-Boo

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 10:47:36 -0400

One of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve that the inflation battle was essentially won and it could turn its attention to the developing weakness in the economy.

Peek-a-boo! Over the last couple of months, inflation has come back to just about exactly where it was before the dip during the summer, raising at least the tickle of a question about whether the Fed's 50bps interest rate cut recently could constitute a policy error. In this episode, the Inflation Guy breaks down the data and opines on this topic.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2024/)

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 122: The Role of Linkers in Portfolio Construction, with Chris Clothier

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 08:00:00 -0400

The Inflation Guy Podcast welcomes a special guest this week: Chris Clothier, co-CIO of UK asset manager CG Asset Management. Together, Chris and the Inflation Guy discuss how they think about inflation-linked bonds in the context of a portfolio: how to think about their return; different aspects of their risk; and what role/benefit they play in the construction of an 'all-weather' portfolio.

Please welcome Chris Clothier to the podcast!

NOTES

David Hackett Fischer, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. (https://www.amazon.com/Great-Wave-Revolutions-Rhythm-History/dp/019512121X )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 121: Real-Feel Inflation: Why Inflation FEELS Higher Than It Is

Wed, 18 Sep 2024 15:47:43 -0400

A rogue's gallery of inflation hucksters have made lots of money over the years by preying on the sense that the average consumer/investor has that "my inflation is higher than the CPI," with some spin usually on how the gov'mint is intentionally understating inflation for some nefarious reason. These hucksters take advantage of the fact that, for reasons that are so native to the economic system that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for describing them, consumers perceptions are not just biased, but biased in systematic ways - which, in the case of inflation, always tends to increase the perceived level of inflation.

In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains how these biases operate on our sense of inflation. If you too want to sound erudite at your next cocktail party - "Actually, Muffy, inflation just seems like it's 10% because..." - then this is a must-listen episode. If not, then you're also probably invited to more cocktail parties than the Inflation Guy is.

NOTES

Ashton, Michael, “Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions, Business Economics, Volume 47, pages 14–26, (2012) (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/be.2011.35 )

Blog callback: Eighth Grade Math vs Shadowstats (https://inflationguy.blog/2021/05/25/eighth-grade-math-vs-shadowstats/ )

Podcast callback: Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index? (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-72-chapwood-index-vs-cpi-%e2%80%93-which-is-the-better-inflation-index/ )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

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Ep. 120: This Month's CPI Report - Down to the Big Sticky

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 10:40:56 -0400

It's that time again, time for the CPI report, and the Inflation Guy tackles it with his usual enthusiasm. Now, some people think when they hear from a guy called "The Inflation Guy" that everything is going to be about how inflation is higher than you think, and you should buy gold gold gold gold or bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin. But you don't get to be The Inflation Guy(tm) by systematically being wrong half the time. In this episode, the IG explains how this report isn't as bad as it looks, and most importantly should not change the Fed's decision about whether to cut rates by 25bps or 50bps next week. Listen to find out why!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 119: August Cleanup

Thu, 05 Sep 2024 13:36:50 -0400

The August vacation time is over, and we now hurtle into the unknown last third of the year. The Inflation Guy starts this journey by clearing his desk of the small inflation stories that are interesting and worth discussing, but don't by themselves warrant a full episode. He discusses power, supply chains, price-linked currencies, Japan's experience with trying to get more inflation, and sticky renters. Enjoy, and find all of the links to the source articles below!

NOTES

Blog Post: “A Price-Linked USD” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ )

WSJ Article: “Pay Your Rent, Get 2% Cash Back: Landlords Join Craze for Rewards” (https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/pay-your-rent-get-2-cash-back-landlords-join-craze-for-rewards-8bf68ee3)

Utility Dive: “PJM capacity prices hit record highs, sending build signal to generators” (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-vistra-constellation/722872/ )

Reuters: “US importers balk at return of $10,000 container shipping rate” (https://www.reuters.com/business/us-importers-balk-return-10000-container-shipping-rate-2024-07-15/ )

NY Times “Japan Wanted Higher Inflation. It’s Here, and It Hurts.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/29/business/japan-inflation-rates.html )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 118: This Month's CPI Report - A Reverse Pony?

Wed, 14 Aug 2024 09:54:38 -0400

It's time for another CPI Report analysis, and the Inflation Guy wades through the confusing report to conclude that...it's not quite as good as it looks. In Episode 106, he talked about a "Potential Pony Situation." Is this a reverse pony situation?

What the heck does that even mean? Who writes this stuff?

NOTES

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 106: This Month's CPI Report - A Potential Pony Situation” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-106-this-months-cpi-report-a-potential-pony-situation/ )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ )

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

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Ep. 117: The Why Behind the Slide – and What it Means for Inflation

Mon, 05 Aug 2024 12:04:47 -0400

In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy begins by addressing the recent stock market sell-off and tells you what is really causing it. Hint: he told you in Episode 116 it was going to happen. And: if we are actually headed into a recession and possibly a bear market, what does that mean for inflation? Keep your eyes on the macro, not the micro. The Inflation Guy tells you what that means.

NOTES

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 116: Political Volatility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-116-political-volatility/ )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ )

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 116: Political Volatility

Fri, 19 Jul 2024 11:35:23 -0400

Perhaps a little less coffee would be in order. The Inflation Guy in this episode wanders through several topics, including the Biden Administration's proposal for national rent control, the eviction moratorium, different measures of rent inflation, market volatility and where to hide for the next 110 days until the US election. Focus, man, focus. Still, he has useful contributions on these topics! Listen and see.

NOTES

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 37: Bad Idea of the Year - Wage and Price Controls” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-37-bad-idea-of-the-year-wage-and-price-controls/ )

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 7: Rents and Sensibility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-7-rents-and-sensibility/ )

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remedies” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep74-inflation-folk-remedies/ ) (This is the one the IG mentioned where he discusses ATRR and NTRR).

Blog Post: “The Residual Effect on Rent Inflation of the Eviction Moratorium” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/18/the-residual-effect-on-rent-inflation-of-the-eviction-moratorium/ )

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ )

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 115: This Month's CPI Report - Closer to What We Want

Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:16:00 -0400

It's that time again, and even though the punditry is now fixated more on the Unemployment Report than the inflation reports, the Inflation Guy doesn't have the trademark or the expertise to be The Unemployment Guy so this podcast is sticking to its knitting. This month's CPI report was the best we have seen in some time, and largely for the right reasons. Are there still things that need to happen for us to be safely on the road to low-and-stable inflation? Yes indeed - and the Inflation Guy discusses those things in this episode.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 114: Why Interest Rates Don't Matter for Inflation

Thu, 27 Jun 2024 15:33:00 -0400

One of the absolute rock-solid articles of faith in the economics community is the proposition that increasing interest rates causes inflation to decline. If you want to slow inflation by a lot, you need to increase interest rates a lot. There is no question that increasing interest rates slows economic growth, and hurts people by doing so. The only reason to do it is because economists believe strongly that it brings down inflation.

But what if it doesn't? In this podcast, the Inflation Guy argues that neither logic nor empirical observations support the notion that increasing interest rates - especially in the absence of restricted money growth - causes inflation to decline. And the basic reason that this relationship is indeterminate is easy to understand. The IG explains.

NOTES

Last Week’s Great Podcast! Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises

Chart of Interest Rates vs Inflation: https://bit.ly/4eJTZly

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024)

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises

Fri, 21 Jun 2024 12:00:45 -0400

On this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy is blessed with not one but two outstanding guests, who help him unravel the significance of a recent client's problem: after selling his bitcoin on an exchange, the exchange made it difficult (so far, impossible) to transfer the proceeds back to his bank. As the Inflation Guy notes, "that's not in the marketing literature about crypto." So, he enlisted some experts to help explain what is going on, and what it means.

Andy Fately, last heard from in Episode 66 of this podcast, is a veteran of more than 40 years in the foreign exchange markets, trading spot, forwards and options as well as running businesses for major US and international commercial and investment banks. He is known as the FX Poet (https://fxpoetry.com/about-2/), but really focused on creating solutions for risk managers for problems as they arise.

Susan Joseph, new to the program, is the Executive Director of FinTech at Cornell, and also engages as Fractional GC and Consultant, advising on crypto and digital assets strategy and its interaction with the regulatory world with a focus on the technical and legal interactions. Susan also educates through continuing legal education classes on blockchain, crypto, digital assets, and AI at Cornell, MIT, Stanford, PLI, and ABA and is a recognized expert. She has served as Secretary for both insurer and fintech boards, is an Advisor to certain crypto and other startups, and is the pro bono Executive Director of Diversity in Blockchain, a 501(c)(3) that supports inclusion.

NOTES

FX Poet: https://fxpoetry.com/about-2/

Article “Central Bank Digital Currencies: Some Considerations,” by Andrew Fately and Susan Joseph, on Tabb Forum (free registration).

Article “How CBDC’s May Impact Inflation,” by Michael Ashton, Andrew Fately, and Susan Joseph, on Tabb Forum (free registration).

Article “Dirty Laundry” on DW Birch Substack

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024)

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 112: This Month's CPI Report - A Very 'Goods' Thing

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 11:42:28 -0400

This month's CPI was a good number - happy news!

But if the Inflation Guy was going to design a 'good number' from scratch, he wouldn't make it look like this. He would start at the other end. What does that mean? Take a listen, and find out why this is a good report and a 'goods' report, but maybe not a great report.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024)

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 111: Until the Job is Almost Done

Wed, 05 Jun 2024 12:36:36 -0400

At the 2023 Fed conference at Jackson Hole, Chairman Powell promised that the Fed would keep fighting inflation "until the job is done." Is the job done? The Inflation Guy thinks the signs suggest inflation is converging on a higher level than the Fed desires. Will the Fed really keep after it? Listen and find out what the Inflation Guy thinks.

NOTES

Pod Callback: Ep. 109: Famous Last Words

Powell snippet: Source Bloomberg TV

Odd reference: Wikipedia on Mummenschanz

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024)

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 110: This Month's CPI Report - 'As Expected' Doesn't Mean 'All Clear'

Wed, 15 May 2024 11:44:17 -0400

The economists were mostly on-target with today's CPI report, at least with the headline and core figures. But that doesn't mean that there was nothing going on underneath the surface. Below the big headlines, some things are getting better and some things...aren't. What does it all mean, and does the Fed have some cover to cut rates? Listen to this episode to hear the Inflation Guy's take on those questions!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024)

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 109: Famous Last Words

Mon, 06 May 2024 12:04:46 -0400

"They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!"

- General John Sedgewick, Union, US Civil War, moments before he was struck by a bullet in the eye.

The tradition of 'famous last words' is alive and well, especially at the Federal Reserve and Treasury. From Bernanke saying the subprime crisis would be contained, to Yellen and Powell describing inflation as 'transitory,' and far beyond - the track record of overly-confident predictions that ultimately turn out to be hilariously wrong is alive and well. In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the most-recent candidate, from last week...

NOTES

Blog Callback: “You Cannot Inflate the Debt Away”

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

Blog for last month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)

Interesting Interactive CPI Chart the IG Didn't Even Mention But is Worth Looking At

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Ep. 108: Revisiting Velocity - Myths and Reality

Fri, 26 Apr 2024 15:24:45 -0400

There are several pernicious myths about the velocity of money that seem to never die. "Friedman said velocity is stable." "Velocity is just a plug number, so it is random." "Velocity is permanently impaired and only declines over time." These drive the Inflation Guy bananas, and from time to time he feels the need to talk about velocity. In this episode, the IG describes the main inputs into his model of velocity, and what the model currently implies about the future path of velocity from here. And, to be fair, he also kvetches some, and that's unseemly. We apologize for him.

NOTES

Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already”

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors”

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 107: Those Ten Dangerous Words

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:25:33 -0400

We don't know if the origin of the 'ten most dangerous words in the English language' was Ronald Reagan, or if the story predates him. But those words, "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you," are the theme to today's podcast. The Inflation Guy interprets some recent news stories, but ties it all together with a crucial observation about what happens if the 'scarce resource' in a particular economy turns out to not be 'labor.'

NOTES

Dan Bongino Show from April 18 (https://megaphone.link/WWO9433765103 ). Listen from the 47 minute mark.

Forbes “Medical Analysis by Milton Friedman” (2009)

Washington Post “Biden administration to cap rent increases for some affordable housing units”

Blog Callback: “Inflation and Insurance Companies, with Bill Poutsiaka”

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 106: This Month's CPI Report - A Potential Pony Situation

Wed, 10 Apr 2024 11:39:19 -0400

On this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 105: Inflation as Foreign Exchange, or How People Screwed Up Housing Forecasts

Wed, 03 Apr 2024 07:35:00 -0400

Okay, buckle up because the Inflation Guy here is going to cover some big-time concepts. Wayyyy back in 2003, some guys named Jarrow and Yildirim explained how inflation acts just like foreign exchange, except not foreign and not on an exchange. No, no, stay with me here. Turns out they were right, and a lot of what is happening today - and the mistakes in interpretation that are being made - can be understood if you understand that the 'inflation FX market' has just changed in important ways. This is an important episode!

NOTES

Jarrow R, Yildirim Y (2003) Pricing treasury inflation protected securities and related derivatives using an HJM model. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38(2):337–359. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=585828

Unidad de Fomento (Wikipedia entry): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidad_de_Fomento

Chart: Nominal and inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller 10-City index, normalized to end of 2019

Chart: Nominal and Real S&P 500 Earnings, normalized to end of 2019

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Ep. 104: Inflation Snippets

Fri, 22 Mar 2024 14:43:11 -0400

Every once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard.

In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for the last year is starting to have some defectors.

NOTES

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Ep. 103: This Month's CPI Report - Sticky Too Soon

Tue, 12 Mar 2024 11:57:52 -0400

Another month, another above-consensus CPI print. The Inflation Guy tears into the data like a feral cat, ripping away the fatty bits to get at the meaty part. Okay, maybe that was too graphic. Anyway, this cat points to several signs in this month's inflation report that inflation is starting to get 'sticky' at a higher level than we'd like it to, and the recent inflation deceleration is going to get more difficult going forward. What is the implication for Fed policy?

NOTES

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 102: Gold and Crypto - Are Either, or Both, Real?

Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:06:43 -0500

Both gold and crypto are occasionally put forth by promoters as having inflation-hedging qualities. Which of these has a better claim? Or are they both 'real assets' that can help you defend your money?

Now that mutual funds and ETFs are launching seemingly weekly to hold BTC and other forms of crypto, 'democratizing access' to this 'asset class,' it is worth asking whether these funds are securities that should be included in every investor's toolkit.

Listen to this episode before you take the plunge. In it, the Inflation Guy makes a very clear prediction about what is to come.

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 86: If Gold is Like TIPS, Should I Buy it?

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Ep. 101: Live Long and Prosper with Inflation-Linked Annuities

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 19:29:43 -0500

This somewhat longer episode has a little bit of potpourri at the beginning, as the Inflation Guy covers the OER-Primary Rents divergence, the decline of Reverse RP balances, and the effect of AI on inflation...but the meat of the podcast is a discussion about a product (which a listener sent to the Inflation Guy) that resembles an inflation-linked annuity but in a mutual fund form. There are pros and cons to the product, and the IG covers them all before giving it a cautious thumbs up.

The Inflation Guy is pleased that we are starting to see more and more innovative products, even if there are still plenty of frontiers as yet unexplored. So he continues to boldly go where no inflation guy has gone before!

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 54: Will Artificial Intelligence Kill Inflation?

Blog Post: AI: Even a Big Deal is Smaller Than You Think

Company reference: Stone Ridge Asset Management (Lifex Funds)

Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Ep. 100: Looking Back and Looking Forward

Fri, 23 Feb 2024 08:03:34 -0500

When your grandpa turns 100, you're going to hear stories. It just goes with the territory. When a podcast has its 100th episode, same deal.

Grandpa Inflation Guy actually manages to keep the stories to a minimum, while reporting on a recent conversation he has had about a development in the health care inflation space and giving some optimistic readings about the future to the gathered listeners.

Now for some cake!

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?

Podcast callback: Ep. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better Way

Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 99: This Month’s CPI Report - UGH!

Tue, 13 Feb 2024 13:01:09 -0500

Welllll...so much for the idea that, since the 3-month average of CPI was down at 1.90%, the Fed could ease in March! This month's inflation print was, to use a technical term, broadly icky. The Inflation Guy tells you why.

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?

Blog Post: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Jan 2024)

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon?

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 13:08:40 -0500

The Inflation Guy for a long time has had a "bee in his bonnet" (seriously, who uses this phrase? Or owns a bonnet?) about the need for more tools to trade inflation and, especially, subcomponents of inflation like medical care. In this episode, after giving a quick preview of next week's CPI report he turns to a discussion of IMX, a new futures exchange that has expressed an intention to trade instruments related to medical care. At the end of January, the IMX announced its first futures contract. Does it get the ball rolling towards being able to trade medical care inflation? Listen to find out the Inflation Guy's take.

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 32: The Remarkable Story of Inflation Futures

Article: For ‘Inflation Guy’ (and Shiller), Medical TIPS Are ‘Holy Grail’

Exhibit: SEC Filing for MacroMarkets Medical Care security

Website: IMX Health

Exhibit: CFTC filing announcing listing of Healthcare Index Futures

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better Way

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 14:21:11 -0500

The Inflation Guy sometimes gets distracted by shiny things. Today, he was distracted by an article sent from a listener, detailing comments from the CFO of Travelers Insurance about the increased reinsurance the company is employing as a hedge against inflation risks to its property and casualty (P&C) businesses.

This is an illuminating comment, showing both that (a) insurance costs are going up not just because insured property values are rising, but also because the cost of reinsuring is rising as inflation risks rise; and (b) major insurance companies are still not hedging inflation risk in P&C businesses with inflation hedges but rather through increasing reinsurance coverage. That's inefficient, and the Inflation Guy explains why.

Insurance and inflation! What could be more interesting than combining those two exciting topics?

NOTES

Article: Inflation on insured values main reason for Travelers extra reinsurance protection, says CFO

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 96: Money Illusion - What it is and Why it Matters

Thu, 25 Jan 2024 14:55:04 -0500

"Money Illusion" sounds like the sort of thing your economics teacher droned on and on about, causing you to yearn for a nice nap during class. But is it a real thing? And if it is...why does it matter?

In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains money illusion, presenting some of the evidence that it is (at least some of the time) a real phenomenon. He uses current observations where you can see money illusion at work, and then explains why it is very important that policymakers understand how important money illusion is, and over what time scales.

NOTES

Article: Fox News New Hampshire Voter Analysis Poll

Article: AP Poll from October

Blog Post: Shortages Are Unmeasured Inflation

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

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Check out the website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 95: 2024 Call to Action

Thu, 18 Jan 2024 15:53:09 -0500

In this (longer than normal) episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the outlook for inflation - which, admittedly, he did last week with the CPI Summary episode but in this case he delves into more of the drivers of his 2024 and 2025 expectations - and for several asset markets. He frames the question as a balance of the risks and makes concrete suggestions for how he would tilt portfolios today.

Also, in response to listener requests, he lists several podcasts that he (very occasionally) listens to. "Recommend" is a strong word, but he likes these.

NOTES

Blog Post: 2024 Balance of Risks

Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa

Chart of Mortgage Origination vs Money Growth

Podcasts Referred to: Orion's The Weighing Machine, InsuranceAUM podcast, We Study Billionaires, Grant Williams Podcast, Demetri Kofinas Hidden Forces, What the Truck?!?, The Memo by Howard Marks, Fill the Gap.

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Ep. 94: This Month’s CPI Report - New Year, New Ewww

Thu, 11 Jan 2024 12:52:39 -0500

It's 2024, a fresh start to what is surely going to prove to be a golden year and the end to history! The SEC has approved bitcoin ETFs, the Fed is dovish and achieved a perfect landing, rates have come down a ton, and everything is beautiful.

At least, as long as inflation really does collapse immediately to 2%, as the consensus seems to suggest. Unfortunately, reality has a way of intruding in these sweet dreams and today's CPI report was frothy in some uncomfortable ways - not little one-offs, but big things like rents, and the stuff driven by wages. Listen to the Inflation Guy walk through the implications of today's number, and what it probably means for Fed policy and markets.

NOTES

Podcast Callback: Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remedies

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Ep. 93: This Month’s CPI Report - Sorry I Could Not Travel Both

Tue, 12 Dec 2023 12:21:42 -0500

It's the monthly CPI report! In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses today's economic data and highlights why the market's expectations for substantial easing in 2024 sets up a difficult path forward. He discusses several ways that inflation could get back to target, and then what needs to happen with policy to make that happen.

Hint: it isn't what the market is pricing right now.

NOTES

Blog Callback: Beware the Price Controller

Podcast Callback: Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remediesv (discussing among other things the ‘new’ rental indices that supposedly imply rents deflation in the CPI)

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Ep. 92: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Accounting for Inflation

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 17:42:18 -0500

The notion of a 'safe withdrawal rate,' being a real amount that can be taken out of savings in retirement each year without a significant risk of running out of money in some window of time, goes back to a 1994 paper by Bengen which enshrined the "4-percent rule." In this podcast, the Inflation Guy discusses improvements to that rule - including some that he popularized - especially when it comes to the need to add some inflation-proofing to an asset mix that needs to keep up with inflation! The IG still prefers personal liability-driven-investing, but investment do-it-yourselfers who like rules of thumb need to know that there are easy ways to improve on the 4% rule...and some not-so-obvious pitfalls in using it blindly!

The Inflation Guy also responds to an excellent listener email about last week's episode.

NOTES

Podcast callback: Ep. 91: Quality Adjustment (?) in College Tuition Inflation

The Inflation Guy's Society of Actuaries paper: Maximizing Personal Surplus: Liability-Driven Investment for Individuals

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Ep. 91: Quality Adjustment (?) in College Tuition Inflation

Wed, 29 Nov 2023 16:16:52 -0500

In this episode, the Inflation Guy considers the question of why college tuition inflation has consistently run drastically faster than headline inflation. Is it a productivity question, or a quality question? And what does 'quality' mean in the context of college education? There are a lot of complex issues to be considered here, which ordinarily would mean you shouldn't ask someone who does his best thinking in the shower, but because we are talking about inflation we are right in his wheelhouse. It's an interesting thought process, which brings up parallels to medical care, rides at Disney, and fins on automobiles!

The Inflation Guy also editorializes on Germany's recent decision to stop further issuance of inflation-linked bonds.

NOTES

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Ep. 90: This Month’s CPI Report - Miles to Go Before We Sleep

Tue, 14 Nov 2023 13:11:02 -0500

This month's CPI report was softer than expected, which is welcome. And there were some quantitative effects in the data which (while expected in the big picture sense) are encouraging. However, a lot of the improvement this month were from fairly obvious one-off categories that moved in the opposite direction from what third-party surveys (for example) were suggesting they would - and most of these will end up being paid back in another CPI report soon. The Inflation Guy walks through it all!

NOTES

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Ep. 89: Hedge ’Em All - the Price of Risk

Thu, 09 Nov 2023 15:22:44 -0500

The Inflation Guy has a little thing about risk. Not merely avoiding it, and certainly not seeking it - but counting it. By carefully decomposing risks into component parts, a portfolio manager can be better prepared for the sorts of risks that can befall a portfolio and also find cheaper ways to express the sorts of risk that he or she wants to have in that portfolio. In this episode, the IG talks about how he thinks of risks, and his mission to decompose everything.

Which sort of sounds gross when we say it that way.

NOTES

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 19: Dual Duration – Why TIPS are Exactly Half the Story”

Medical Care Inflation Security: Macro Shares Medical Inflation Up Trust (never issued)

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Ep. 88: Does Slower Jobs Growth Portend Lower Inflation?

Fri, 03 Nov 2023 13:45:02 -0400

This morning's Payrolls Report was weaker-than-expected; among other things it included an increase in the Unemployment Rate to 3.9% - fully 1/2% higher than April's low for that number. Does this mean that we are going to have slower wage growth, and slower inflation? Or possibly one of those and not the other?

And what does it mean for growth? The Inflation Guy reviews the historical record of prior periods when the Unemployment Rate rose off a prior low, and reaches an unfortunate conclusion.

NOTES

Blog Callback: “The Phillips Curve is Still Working Just Fine”

Blog Callback: “Money Velocity Update!”

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Ep. 87: Confusing Price Effects and Quantity Effects

Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:36:51 -0400

In this too-late-in-the-week episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy takes on supply and demand curves, market clearing prices and quantities, and says you're doing it all wrong.

It's more nuanced than that, but they charge us by the word for these summaries.

NOTES

Blog Callback: “Shortages are Unmeasured Inflation” https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/

Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2021/10/24/shortages-are-unmeasured-inflation/

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Ep. 86: If Gold is Like TIPS, Should I Buy it?

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 17:23:56 -0400

Sometimes, the episodes write themselves.

In Episode 84, the Inflation Guy pointed out that with real yields now comfortably above 2%, TIPS are at least fair and possibly just downright attractive from a long-term perspective. "Is it Time to Buy TIPS?" he asked.

But back in Episode 31, the Inflation Guy discussed "Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Versa)."

So, by the commutativity principle of podcasting (actually we just made that up), it follows that we should probably ask "Is it Time to Buy Gold?" So in this episode, the IG squares the circle and answers that question.

[He also clarifies that gold is lots heavier than TIPS. So they're not identical or anything. For that matter you can't make a necklace out of TIPS.]

NOTES

Podcast Callback: “Why Gold is Like TIPS (or Vice-Versa)” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-31-why-gold-is-like-tips-or-vice-versa/

Podcast Callback: “Is it Time to Buy TIPS?” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-84-is-it-time-to-buy-tips/

Blog Callback: “How Higher Rates Cause Big Changes in the Bond Contract” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/10/17/how-higher-rates-cause-big-changes-in-the-bond-contract/

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Ep. 85: This Month’s CPI Report - The Hard Part Has Begun

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 12:31:39 -0400

Another month, another CPI report. In recent months' reports, the Inflation Guy has warned "Don't Get Used to It!" (Episode 77) and "The Easy Part is Over" (Episode 81). Those months saw flaccid CPI figures that were easy to see through, and this month inflation returned to something approximating the old trend.

In this episode, the Inflation Guy walks through the report with an eye to what happened, but more importantly what happens next. You will want to know why he thinks that the hard part...has just begun.

NOTES

Praxis Financial Publishing Q&A of the Inflation Guy: https://lnkd.in/emCrcnHs

Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/06/21/enough-with-interest-rates-already/

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 84: Is it Time to Buy TIPS?

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 16:41:55 -0400

This is an episode with a call to action!

In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the current state of nominal and inflation-linked yields, and gives some historical context as to where those stand in the Grand Scheme of Things. In doing so, he explains why TIPS' downside is much more well-defined that those of normal Treasury notes, and why the current level makes it a good time...well, anyway, you can listen to the episode and find out!

NOTES

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 83: Inflation Bookshelf

Thu, 28 Sep 2023 18:58:54 -0400

So often, the Inflation Guy is asked to recommend a good book on inflation. Just one? That's crazy. There are oodles of good books on inflation, and in this episode the Inflation Guy recommends eight.

Okay, one of the recommendations was less-than-enthusiastic. But these are all worth reading. Listen to the podcast, and visit the links below to see the books in Amazon or other site.

[erratum - Inflation Guy in this episode refers to the author of Economics as Robert Samuelson. He obviously misspoke because no reasonably-educated economics student wouldn't know that Economics was written by Paul Samuelson, who won a Nobel Prize by the way. Also William D. Nordhaus, who did not.]

NOTES

Podcast Callback: Ep. 15: An Interview with Special Guest Milton Friedman

Books Referred to:

Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White, 1933 (free pdf)

When Money Dies, Adam Fergusson, 2010

Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream, R. Christopher Whalen, 2010

The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence, Robert J. Samuelson, 2010 (funny how many of these are from 2010. Never noticed that before.)

Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History, Milton Friedman, 1994

Asking About Prices: A New Approach to Understanding Price Stickiness, Alan Blinder, Elie Canerri, David Lebow, 1998

The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, 2020

The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047, Lionel Shriver, 2017

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 82: Why Endowment CIOs Should Operate in Real Space

Thu, 21 Sep 2023 11:52:47 -0400

Eleven episodes ago, the Inflation Guy presented five ways that endowment CIOs could improve their inflation allocations. In a way, that put the cart before the horse and so the IG is circling back: what is it about UPMIFA that virtually demands that CIOs address their asset strategies in real space?

The basic problem is that two of the seven factors that endowment investment committees are to consider under UPMIFA are in tension in nominal space. But, by changing the problem to look at it in real space, the "consideration of inflation" requirement and the "real value of the endowment" requirement can operate in harmony.

Well, that's the gist of it. Listen to the podcast to hear why this is true!

And check out our new website! (link below)

NOTES

Podcast Callback: Ep.71: 5 Simple Ways an Endowment Can Improve its Inflation-Protection Allocation

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the new website!: https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Ep. 81: CPI Report Summary - The Easy Part is Over

Wed, 13 Sep 2023 15:04:40 -0400

In this edition of the monthly CPI Report Summary, the Inflation Guy sets the stage by reminding us about the backdrop: the low, low inflation reports of the last two months. These were somewhat quirky, in mostly different ways, and the IG explains why today's higher-than-expected inflation report is a sign that - although things are getting better - inflation is about to get to the 'sticky part' where continued improvement all the way to the Federal Reserve's goal becomes more challenging.

NOTES

Podcast Callback: Ep.74: Inflation Folk Remedies

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

Ep. 80: Hedonic Adjustment and Why You Shouldn’t Hate It

Thu, 07 Sep 2023 11:47:02 -0400

“Hedonic adjustment” is a curse word among those who think that inflation figures are all scrubbed to look nice by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (if they are, the BLS did a pretty rotten job of it over the last couple of years!), but it is not nearly as sinister as you might think it is. In this episode, the Inflation Guy goes inside-baseball again to explain hedonic adjustment, and the offsetting effect that no one ever seems to complain about because it pushes inflation higher.

It's okay to hate inflation, but don't blame hedonic adjustment! Or the Inflation Guy. He's just the messenger.

NOTES

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

Podcast Callback: Ep. 4: The Making of an Inflation Index

Website reference: BLS Link to Hedonic Adjustment Q&A

Website reference: BLS Link to Hedonic Adjustment for Men’s Suits

Research reference: Johnson, D.S., S.B. Reed, and K.J. Stewart . 2006. “Price Measurement in the United States: a Decade Aftert he Boskin Report.” Monthly Labor Review 129 (5): 10–19.

Ep. 79: Seasonal Adjustment and Inflation

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 16:28:48 -0400

The inflation derivatives market is currently suggesting that prices will decline in the US between August (the report we get in a couple of weeks) and December. Does this mean that inflation is upon us? No, and the reason why is something called 'seasonal adjustment.'

It turns out that seasonal adjustment is critically important for inflation markets, and the market's pricing is not nearly as outlandish as it looks. In this podcast, the Inflation Guy explains in plain English what seasonal adjustment is, and what it means in this case.

NOTES

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

Ep. 78: Why China’s Economic Weakness Isn’t Deflationary

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 13:23:21 -0400

Recent data out of China has shown growing stresses in the property market, implying stresses in banking; weakness in the trade balance; and generally disappointing growth. This has led some observers to suggest a deflationary wave is headed our way. In this episode, the Inflation Guy recalls a prior example where weakness in Pacific Rim countries actually provoked acceleration in Western economies, and rising inflation.

NOTES:

Book: Maestro, My Ass! https://amzn.to/45hhFbP

Ep. 77: This Month’s CPI Report - Don’t Get Used to It!

Thu, 10 Aug 2023 12:12:07 -0400

The US CPI was released today and was a modest positive surprise to expectations that were already pretty optimistic in the sense that economists (and the Inflation Guy) were expecting a low print. In this podcast, the IG breaks down the report and points out the very positive developments...along with some curious quirks that soften the miss.

But the big question is, what happens next? And here, the Inflation Guy is less sanguine. He gets specific about why, in this podcast. Tune in, and subscribe!

NOTES

Pod callback: “Inflation Folk Remedies”

Blog callback: “Three Colliding Macro Trends”

Blog callback: “Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets (July 2023)”

To Subscribe to the Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

Ep. 76: Why Does Inflation Matter?

Thu, 03 Aug 2023 15:02:25 -0400

The Inflation Guy, let's face it, sometimes goes a little off the rails when the topic is inflation and the importance of the inflation lens. In this episode, he compares inflation to the fabric of space-time. Can you imagine?

The upshot is that even if you don't know anything about space-time, it is still very important to you - and it is crucially important if you happen to be launching rockets. So if you're launching investment rockets, then the fabric of the price-system-space-time should be very, very important to you. It's a good point.

Just seems like he could have said that more succinctly.

NOTES

Blog callback: “Wimpy’s World”

Pod callback: “Ep. 21: Recording for Posterity the Absurdity of Negative Interest Rates”

Chart of Enduring Quebec Retiree Inflation strategy vs Qc Retiree Inflation: Thru June 2023

Ep. 75: Where Are We in the Inflation Tale?

Thu, 27 Jul 2023 12:02:11 -0400

Let's take a big step back. The Inflation Guy spends a lot of time in his podcasts talking about the current CPI figures and fairly short-term considerations. But economic episodes are like books, with rising action, a climax, and falling action - and bigger cycles are like book series (think Harry Potter). As we get closer to the end of this book, we need to think about how the next book advances the plot. The Inflation Guy talks through the current chapters, looks forward to the end of this book, and suggests what he thinks Book 2 will look like. Because inflation is not a book you can put down: you're in it to the end.

NOTES

Podcast callback: “Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors”

The Inflation Guy's book: “What’s Wrong with Money?: The Biggest Bubble of All” – by the way the price online is absurd. Email inflationguy@enduringinvestments.com and he can sell you out of his own stock. If you're in Europe, try https://www.wiley.com/en-be/What%27s+Wrong+with+Money%3F%3A+The+Biggest+Bubble+of+All-p-9781119191162

Chart of the M/Q and V convergence: https://inflationguy.blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/convergence.jpg

Link to Trivia Answer Audio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4-gsdLSSQ0

Ep.74: Inflation Folk Remedies

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 21:02:29 -0400

There is something between 'snake oil salesmen' and trusted information providers. People giving you folk remedies are generally well-intentioned, but merely lack the background to be truly authoritative about the malady they are trying to cure.

So it is with economics, and these days especially with inflation.

In this episode, the Inflation Guy gives three current examples of inflation-related advice and popular models that fall into the category of 'inflation folk remedies.'

NOTES:

Book: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M Reinhart and Kenneth S Rogoff

Podcast callback: “Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index?”

Article: “This Statistic Could Be Distorting How We Think About Inflation,” New York Times.com

Article: “Disentangling Rent Index Differences: Data, Methods, and Scope”, by Brian Adams, Lara Loewenstein, Hugh Montag, and Randal J. Verbrugge

Blog Article: “Multivariate Core Trend Inflation”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Ep. 73: This Month’s CPI Report - the Longest Journey

Wed, 12 Jul 2023 13:46:15 -0400

In the monthly analysis of the CPI report, the Inflation Guy reflects on an improving inflation picture while cautioning that it isn't improving quite as much as the surprisingly-awesome core and headline figures today suggested. There were two large outliers that likely won't repeat. That said, it is a positive-enough report that the Fed's presumptive rate hike expected later this month might be deferred.

Inflation continues to trend slowly lower, but only slowly - and although the longest journey begins with a single step there are a whole lot of steps ahead before we get to the 2% Promised Land.

Notes:

Inflation Guy Shop: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index?

Wed, 05 Jul 2023 16:49:22 -0400

The Inflation Guy is often asked about the Chapwood Index, which is a non-governmental inflation index that is billed as a “true cost of living index, unlike CPI.” In what ways does this index achieve that goal, and where does it fall short? This episode also serves as another illustration of how the Inflation Guy can go off the rails even when given a simple assignment. Which is better, Chapwood or CPI? See what the Inflation Guy has to say about the matter.

Notes:

Price Stats (neé Billion Prices Project) https://www.pricestats.com/inflation-series?chart=1837 - an independent (but no longer free) inflation index that the Inflation Guy likes better than the Chapwood Index.

Blog article: “Eighth-Grade Math vs Shadowstats” https://inflationguy.blog/2021/05/25/eighth-grade-math-vs-shadowstats/

Podcast callbacks: “Ep. 7: Rents and Sensibility” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-7-rents-and-sensibility/

“Ep. 4: The Making of an Inflation Indedx” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/inflation-guy-podcast-episode-4-the-making-of-an-inflation-index

Ep. 71: 5 Simple Ways an Endowment Can Improve its Inflation-Protection Allocation

Thu, 29 Jun 2023 15:50:41 -0400

The Inflation Guy shows a bit more focus in this episode of the podcast, aiming his comments squarely at endowment CIOs and the OCIOs that serve them. He discussed 5 simple ways that an endowment can improve its inflation-protection allocation. Take the test! If you're already doing all five, you are in the 99th percentile.

But if you're not - it's fixable!

NOTES:

“TIPS, the Dual Duration, and the Pension Plan,” Laurence B. Siegel & M. Barton Waring: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v60.n5.2656

“TIPS, the Triple Duration, and the OPEB Liability: Hedging Medical Care Inflation in OPEB Plans”, Michael Ashton, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1838545

Ep. 70: ’Greedflation’ - I See the ’Flation But is There Greed?

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 19:03:54 -0400

In this episode, the Inflation Guy confronts the question of "Greedflation." What is it, and is it real? Is inflation all the fault of smelly capitalists? And what is the difference between the consumer's greed, wanting to pay less, and the company's greed, wanting you to pay more?

Corporate margins are expanding, along with higher inflation. Does that constitute prima facie evidence of greedflation? The Inflation Guy tackles this too, despite completely butchering the pronunciation of "prima facie." He also mentions the Illuminati. Really, you can't miss this episode.

NOTES

Good article: Are greedy corporations causing inflation? The Economist https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/04/30/are-greedy-corporations-causing-inflation?giftId=21b1b229-c3bf-4371-bf72-4fd9291cac04

Good book: The Bigness Complex: Industry, Labor, & Government in the American Economy, Walter Adams and James W Brock. https://amzn.to/3NGnmtw

Good Movie: “Everything Everywhere All At Once” https://amzn.to/3NjNOrD

Good blog post: “Enough with Interest Rats Already” https://inflationguy.blog/2023/06/21/enough-with-interest-rates-already/

Ep. 69: This Month’s CPI Report - Rents and Wages Aren’t Falling!

Tue, 13 Jun 2023 15:09:57 -0400

In this, the monthly analysis of the CPI report, the Inflation Guy homes in on a couple of reasons that core inflation is staying high, despite widespread forecasts that it should be decelerating more quickly:

Rents are still rising at about 6% per year, even though many economists have convinced themselves that rents should decline (despite higher costs for landlords, higher incomes for customers, and higher prices of a substitute), and
Wages are still rising at about 6% per year, which tends to lend persistence to core services ex-rents (so-called "Supercore").

There are some positive signs in the data, but even as inflation declines slowly on base effects there are few signs that core inflation is dropping below the 5% or so level it has been around for the last few years. A Fed on hold seems appropriate.

Reference: "How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation", Economic Letter, San Francisco Federal Reserve

Ep.68: Great Traders, and How the Inflation Guy Could Be Wrong

Thu, 08 Jun 2023 17:13:08 -0400

In this episode, the Inflation Guy answers a question he is often asked: what makes a good trader? In listing what he thinks the four main attributes of a good trader are, he demonstrates one of them here by asking the question, "How could I be wrong?" and discusses how he would structure a position based on that assumption.

So, if you tuned in this week as one of the people thinking 'this guy is sooo wrong,' then this is the episode for you!

References in this episode:

"What if We’re Thinking About Inflation All Wrong?", The New Yorker, June 6, 2023

"Bad Idea of the Year - Wage and Price Controls", Inflation Guy Podcast Ep. 37, August 22, 2022

"CPI Swaps Improving? Not as Significant as You Think", Inflation Guy Blog, June 7, 2023

Ep. 67: Three-point Goal? Or go for Two? (Percent)

Thu, 01 Jun 2023 16:47:17 -0400

The Fed, along with most global central banks, considers 2% (or in that neighborhood) to be the definition of "price stability" that it aims for. Except that in the Fed's case, that 2% is on PCE (not CPI), and they only aim to hit that as an average over some (unstated) period of time.

However, even that is proving to be...somewhat difficult, leading to "murmurs" in some quarters that the Fed should change its target to 3% rather than 2%. For example, see this article in Reuters from May 24th: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/murmurs-grow-within-fed-about-tweaking-2-target-once-inflation-recedes-2023-05-24/

In this episode, the Inflation Guy reviews the history of the 2% target, including how it's sort of a squishy target...which the Fed doesn't really have the power to hit anyway. The Inflation Guy goes a little nuts with the analogies but you will get the point.

Tune in for the trivia question; stay for the history lesson!

Please like, subscribe, and refer!

Ep. 66: De-dollarization - Should We Worry? with Andy Fately

Wed, 17 May 2023 09:36:41 -0400

This week, the Inflation Guy brings another special guest on the set.

Andy Fately is a veteran of more than 40 years in the foreign exchange markets, trading spot, forwards and options as well as running businesses for major US and international commercial and investment banks. He is known as the FX Poet (https://fxpoetry.com/about-2/), but really focused on creating solutions for risk managers for problems as they arise.

Andy and the Inflation Guy tackle the question that naturally follows from headlines like these from earlier this year (links take you to the story):

Should US citizens, or dollar-users in general, be concerned that the sun may be setting on the US Dollar? How would this happen, and is it likely to happen? Andy Fately and the Inflation Guy combine their knowledge (which, to be fair, mostly belongs to Andy) and push back a bit on the 'bear porn' disaster cases by walking through the actual mechanics that would be involved in a de-dollarization.

Like, subscribe, comment!

Ep. 65: This Month’s CPI Report - Sing a New Song Unto the ’Board

Wed, 10 May 2023 11:18:13 -0400

The Inflation Guy addresses this month's CPI report, which showed an above-expectations Core CPI number (by a little). However, the internals of the report were not too bad, and according to the Inflation Guy today's data turns out to be a really good one supporting the timing of the Federal Reserve Board's pivot from active-tightening to steady-policy. The months ahead, though, still are unlikely to deliver what the market is pricing in, setting up a denouement for later in the year. For today, however, sing a new song unto the 'Board!

Ep. 64: Will the Money Supply Decline Save Our Inflationary Bacon?

Wed, 03 May 2023 18:51:51 -0400

The M2 measure of the money supply has declined 4% from its peak 8 months ago - the largest decline since M2 has been measured starting in 1959. On the other hand, the Velocity of M2 has risen 8%, tying the largest increase in history. Which of these two titanic monetary tides will prevail? Does the decline in money presage the beginning of a deflationary debacle (at least for the stock market)?

The Inflation Guy takes on this question and untangles the truth for you.

Plus, he added a trivia question. So, there's that.

Ep. 63: A Bitter Pill

Wed, 26 Apr 2023 19:17:03 -0400

In this episode, the Inflation Guy again tilts at windmills by ranting about recent comments by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to the effect that the reason inflation is remaining high is because normal people are not accepting that they are worse off, and therefore insist on arguing for higher wages rather than "taking their share" of the pain. Wow, he gets animated in this one. It's only Episode 63. What is the Inflation Guy going to be like when we get to Episode 100?

Ep. 62: There’s Nothing Wrong With the Phillips Curve!

Thu, 20 Apr 2023 16:50:06 -0400

It has become de rigeur in economics circles (word to the wise - always avoid such circles if you wish to retain your ability to think independently) to bemoan the death of the “Phillips Curve.” The Phillips Curve supposedly describes an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. "Supposedly”? In this succinct episode, the Inflation Guy explains why poor William Phillips' good name has been dragged through the mud unnecessarily. There is nothing wrong with his curve!

In this podcast, the Inflation Guy refers to a chart. It's hard to see charts on audio, so here is a link to the chart in case you want to follow along:

The Real Phillips Curve

Ep. 61: This Month’s CPI Report - Good, Not Great

Wed, 12 Apr 2023 16:49:18 -0400

When is a perfect forecast not a perfect forecast? When you got the reasons wrong. This ain't hurling hand grenades, where only the result matters - if you made a bunch of positive mistakes and a bunch of negative mistakes and they happen to offset, you're not a genius; you just got lucky. So today, Wall Street economists forecast 0.39% on Core CPI. That was exactly what they got. But for all the wrong reasons, and the reasons are important.

In this episode, the Inflation Guy (whose forecast wasn't even right, so who is he to judge?!) highlights the two things which dragged down Core inflation...neither of which was expected by almost anyone. So the news overall is good, not great, and the Inflation Guy will tell you why.

If you like the podcast, please click that like button and forward it to a friend!

Ep. 60: Inflation and Insurance Companies, with Bill Poutsiaka

Thu, 06 Apr 2023 10:03:27 -0400

The Inflation Guy doesn't understand why some people love to be the smartest person in the room. That's not fun at all! The Inflation Guy wants to be no better than the second-smartest, so he can always be learning. This is the first episode where he achieves this goal in a podcast format, with a real live guest who is deeply experienced in how insurance companies evaluate and address inflation risks.

Bill Poutsiaka is a senior financial services executive who has been a CEO, Chief Investment Officer, and board member for global insurance and asset management businesses. Bill has served as an active director on the boards of public, mutual, private and non-profit organizations. These organizations have included global, domestic, large, small, multiline and highly specialized insurance and investment entities. His executive roles include Chief Investment Officer & SVP of AIG Property Casualty following the financial crisis; CEO of quantitative firm PanAgora Asset Management, and CEO Arkwright Mutual Insurance Co which he merged to form FM Global.

More importantly, he is an old friend of the Inflation Guy. In this episode of the podcast, they talk about how insurance companies think about and address inflation risks...and also go 'into the lab' to talk about some of the things they ought to do, if they don't.

Bill is currently consulting, doing board work, research on application of emerging data science methods, mentoring, advising/coaching fintech organizations and startups, publishing, and speaking at conferences and universities. If you want to get in touch with him, drop the Inflation Guy a message at InflationGuy@EnduringInvestments.com

Ep. 59: Delta - Not So Arcane

Wed, 29 Mar 2023 18:56:52 -0400

In this episode, the Inflation Guy presents an introductory-level discussion of the concept of "delta," applying it to securities and explaining how the concept is used (in fairly plain English), but also applying it to exposures outside of the finance world. If you are someone who agreed with the tenor of a recent news article referring to the "arcane area of trading known as delta-hedging," you might find the Inflation Guy's perspective refreshing.

If you like this podcast, please be sure to 'like' us, forward the links to your friends, and talk about us often. And return next week for more!

Ep. 58: ”You Fell Victim to One of the Classic Blunders!”

Tue, 21 Mar 2023 18:28:48 -0400

In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses how volatility is a feature, not a bug - and how the Silicon Valley Bank debacle is not likely to lead to lower inflation at all. He also tells an interesting story about how deposit interest rates used to be capped, and how uncapped deposits have often been associated with bad outcomes at poorly-managed banks (and lots of them).

Some sources for this podcast:

Rolnick, Arthur J., “The Benefits of Bank Deposit Rate Ceilings: New Evidence on Bank Rates and Risk in the 1920s,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Summer 1987. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=148ae4d7a7bd36d2a3e851fb543d6350cdfa20d4

“Deposit Deregulation,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Weekly Letter, April 10, 1981. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el81-15.pdf

Banking Strategist website: history of US Bank Failures. https://www.bankingstrategist.com/history-of-us-bank-failures

Ep. 57: This Month’s CPI - Not What the Fed Needed!

Tue, 14 Mar 2023 11:16:00 -0400

On Friday, the Inflation Guy thought no one would care about this month's CPI given the bank failures starting with Silicon Valley Bank. But actually, this number turns out to be quite important - the Fed needed a soft report, so that there would be no conflict between the rate trajectory needed to calm markets and support banks (lower) and that needed to quell inflation and inflation fears (higher). Whoops. Median CPI is still rising, putting the Federal Reserve...really, for the first time since the tightening began...in something of a box. Also, has anyone noticed that nearly 500bps of tightening hasn't slowed inflation? Maybe rate hikes are the wrong focus? Nah.

Ep. 56: A New Way to Trade Inflation

Thu, 09 Mar 2023 18:09:49 -0500

It has been a long time coming, but in this episode of the Inflation Guy Podcast, the IG talks about a new way to trade inflation - and it's a way that's available to the individual, and not just the hedge funds and large institutions! Inflation futures, although not fully mature, are here!